Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
47
Down 79%
$15.7K
$-4.4K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 47 top traders (79%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.8K | +$13.95 | 56% 354-283 (637) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-5.0K | 38% 184-299 (483) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $740.52 | $748 | +$7.48 | 98% 3296-70 (3366) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 68.6¢ | $591.24 | $690.61 | +$102.62 | 60% 935-625 (1560) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 71¢ | $494.13 | $632.14 | +$138.02 | 46% 971-1157 (2128) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 86.8¢ | $501.5 | $511.9 | +$10.4 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $521.06 | $498.11 | +$9.93 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 62¢ | $387.67 | $399.61 | +$11.94 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 81¢ | $322.62 | $398.3 | +$75.68 | 49% 1252-1281 (2533) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 82.3¢ | $231.81 | $261.8 | +$30 | 52% 767-721 (1488) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 80.5¢ | $301.41 | $237.57 | -$63.85 | 44% 661-845 (1506) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 80.5¢ | $196.14 | $216.94 | +$20.8 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 68.2¢ | $176.08 | $216.8 | +$40.72 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $195.9 | $252 | +$56.1 | 51% 705-683 (1388) |
AL almach | Downavg 85.2¢ | $163.7 | $192.15 | +$28.45 | 50% 1264-1258 (2522) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 76.7¢ | $143.49 | $132.7 | -$10.79 | 46% 705-840 (1545) |
 ohioism | Downavg 89¢ | $133.5 | $150 | +$16.5 | 48% 1893-2072 (3965) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 75¢ | $103.15 | $137.59 | +$34.44 | 55% 805-662 (1467) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $123.06 | $124.77 | +$1.71 | 48% 652-705 (1357) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 59.9¢ | $85.79 | $109.3 | +$23.51 | 50% 703-697 (1400) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $370.76 | $112.19 | +$31.89 | 31% 611-1379 (1990) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 89¢ | $89 | $100 | +$11 | 47% 1953-2201 (4154) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50¢ | $77 | $153.99 | +$77 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 85.6¢ | $71.69 | $83.75 | +$12.06 | 51% 4508-4382 (8890) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $68.84 | $60 | -$8.84 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
Invested
$8,868
Value
$8.8K
PnL
+$13.95
Record
56%
354-283 (637)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
38%
184-299 (483)
Invested
$740.52
Value
$748
PnL
+$7.48
Record
98%
3296-70 (3366)
Invested
$591.24
Value
$690.61
PnL
+$102.62
Record
60%
935-625 (1560)
machinelearnedInvested
$494.13
Value
$632.14
PnL
+$138.02
Record
46%
971-1157 (2128)
Invested
$501.5
Value
$511.9
PnL
+$10.4
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$521.06
Value
$498.11
PnL
+$9.93
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Invested
$387.67
Value
$399.61
PnL
+$11.94
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
Invested
$322.62
Value
$398.3
PnL
+$75.68
Record
49%
1252-1281 (2533)
Invested
$231.81
Value
$261.8
PnL
+$30
Record
52%
767-721 (1488)
Invested
$301.41
Value
$237.57
PnL
-$63.85
Record
44%
661-845 (1506)
Invested
$196.14
Value
$216.94
PnL
+$20.8
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$176.08
Value
$216.8
PnL
+$40.72
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
Invested
$195.9
Value
$252
PnL
+$56.1
Record
51%
705-683 (1388)
Invested
$163.7
Value
$192.15
PnL
+$28.45
Record
50%
1264-1258 (2522)
Invested
$143.49
Value
$132.7
PnL
-$10.79
Record
46%
705-840 (1545)
ohioismInvested
$133.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$16.5
Record
48%
1893-2072 (3965)
Invested
$103.15
Value
$137.59
PnL
+$34.44
Record
55%
805-662 (1467)
Invested
$123.06
Value
$124.77
PnL
+$1.71
Record
48%
652-705 (1357)
Invested
$85.79
Value
$109.3
PnL
+$23.51
Record
50%
703-697 (1400)
Invested
$370.76
Value
$112.19
PnL
+$31.89
Record
31%
611-1379 (1990)
Invested
$89
Value
$100
PnL
+$11
Record
47%
1953-2201 (4154)
Invested
$77
Value
$153.99
PnL
+$77
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$71.69
Value
$83.75
PnL
+$12.06
Record
51%
4508-4382 (8890)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$68.84
Value
$60
PnL
-$8.84
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.8K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $748
Bonereaper
Down — $690.61
machinelearned
Down — $632.14
blue.birds
Down — $511.9
ByteBadger92
Down — $498.11
CrouchPredictions
Down — $399.61
mo-money
Down — $398.3
EZTRADENL2
Down — $261.8