Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.2K

Combined PnL

$444.67

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 59 top traders (68%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%39 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down40 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,528

Combined PnL+$976.56

Up19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,304

Combined PnL-$531.89

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.5K	+$18.11	55% 358-290 (648)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.2K	$8.5K	+$4.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.2K	—	$-4.2K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$10.01	39% 191-303 (494)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
BL blue.birds	Downavg 79.1¢	$642.27	$649.3	+$7.04	52% 4832-4520 (9352)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 67¢	$708.23	$617.03	-$87.79	60% 940-631 (1571)
AL almach	Downavg 58.8¢	$376.72	$640.55	+$263.83	50% 1276-1266 (2542)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$590.83	$486.28	+$0.94	55% 3173-2646 (5819)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.2¢	$253.66	$486.28	+$249.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.8¢	$238.11	—	-$248.16
ST stepahead	Downavg 63.7¢	$430.34	$462.05	+$31.7	55% 4299-3527 (7826)
MO mo-money	Downavg 59.1¢	$325.11	$550.4	+$225.28	50% 1265-1289 (2554)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$392.54	$344.47	-$48.07	47% 921-1056 (1977)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$216.17	$344.47	+$128.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.1¢	$176.37	—	-$176.37
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 67.4¢	$250.8	$372.35	+$121.55	50% 2065-2056 (4121)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 62.1¢	$288.29	$310.6	+$22.31	31% 618-1383 (2001)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 66.1¢	$412.54	$299.29	-$68.77	44% 666-851 (1517)
machinelearned	Downavg 69.2¢	$237.06	$277.54	+$40.47	46% 976-1163 (2139)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 72.4¢	$401.44	$230.48	-$8.66	50% 4199-4276 (8475)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$223.09	$228.15	+$5.06	52% 2019-1897 (3916)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$128.25	$228.15	+$99.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.9¢	$94.85	—	-$94.85
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 74.6¢	$155.64	$180.17	+$24.54	52% 772-727 (1499)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 58.3¢	$130.49	$211.44	+$80.96	50% 1731-1732 (3463)
BO bosona	Downavg 84.3¢	$177.72	$210.81	+$33.1	51% 4524-4391 (8915)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 67.5¢	$138.59	$176.88	+$38.29	53% 4469-3887 (8356)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 64¢	$123.34	$151.95	+$28.6	50% 709-702 (1411)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 68.8¢	$123.73	$175.83	+$52.1	39% 683-1054 (1737)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 31.9¢	$344.24	—	-$298.74	46% 711-845 (1556)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 59¢	$120.24	$150	+$29.76	47% 1965-2218 (4183)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 54.5¢	$130.38	$129.81	-$0.57	50% 699-696 (1395)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 77.6¢	$127.16	$148.01	+$20.85	55% 814-664 (1478)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,656

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$18.11

Record

55%

358-290 (648)

Both legs:

Down$4,234.0350¢+$4.3K

Up$4,211.3650¢$-4.2K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$10.01

Record

39%

191-303 (494)

Both legs:

Invested

$642.27

Value

$649.3

PnL

+$7.04

Record

52%

4832-4520 (9352)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$708.23

Value

$617.03

PnL

-$87.79

Record

60%

940-631 (1571)

almach

Down

Invested

$376.72

Value

$640.55

PnL

+$263.83

Record

50%

1276-1266 (2542)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$590.83

Value

$486.28

PnL

+$0.94

Record

55%

3173-2646 (5819)

Both legs:

Down$253.6652.2¢+$249.1

Up$238.1146.8¢-$248.16

stepahead

Down

Invested

$430.34

Value

$462.05

PnL

+$31.7

Record

55%

4299-3527 (7826)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$325.11

Value

$550.4

PnL

+$225.28

Record

50%

1265-1289 (2554)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$392.54

Value

$344.47

PnL

-$48.07

Record

47%

921-1056 (1977)

Both legs:

Down$216.1762.8¢+$128.3

Up$176.3724.1¢-$176.37

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$250.8

Value

$372.35

PnL

+$121.55

Record

50%

2065-2056 (4121)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$288.29

Value

$310.6

PnL

+$22.31

Record

31%

618-1383 (2001)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$412.54

Value

$299.29

PnL

-$68.77

Record

44%

666-851 (1517)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$237.06

Value

$277.54

PnL

+$40.47

Record

46%

976-1163 (2139)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$401.44

Value

$230.48

PnL

-$8.66

Record

50%

4199-4276 (8475)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$223.09

Value

$228.15

PnL

+$5.06

Record

52%

2019-1897 (3916)

Both legs:

Down$128.2556.2¢+$99.9

Up$94.8539.9¢-$94.85

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$155.64

Value

$180.17

PnL

+$24.54

Record

52%

772-727 (1499)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$130.49

Value

$211.44

PnL

+$80.96

Record

50%

1731-1732 (3463)

bosona

Down

Invested

$177.72

Value

$210.81

PnL

+$33.1

Record

51%

4524-4391 (8915)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$138.59

Value

$176.88

PnL

+$38.29

Record

53%

4469-3887 (8356)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$123.34

Value

$151.95

PnL

+$28.6

Record

50%

709-702 (1411)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$123.73

Value

$175.83

PnL

+$52.1

Record

39%

683-1054 (1737)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$344.24

Value

—

PnL

-$298.74

Record

46%

711-845 (1556)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$120.24

Value

$150

PnL

+$29.76

Record

47%

1965-2218 (4183)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$130.38

Value

$129.81

PnL

-$0.57

Record

50%

699-696 (1395)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$127.16

Value

$148.01

PnL

+$20.85

Record

55%

814-664 (1478)

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 59 top traders (68%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%39 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7601ef9c...771f28

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794645900

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Down — $649.3

+$7.04

Bonereaper

Down — $617.03

-$87.79

almach

Down — $640.55

+$263.83

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0.94

stepahead

Down — $462.05

+$31.7

mo-money

Down — $550.4

+$225.28

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$48.07

uninformedfloww

Down — $372.35

+$121.55

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