Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
46
Down 74%
$9.9K
-$639.66
Smart Money Signal
34 of 46 top traders (74%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | -$10.62 | 38% 184-299 (483) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$928.8 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.3¢ | $552.69 | $486.96 | -$2.3 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 76.7¢ | $448.24 | $481.09 | +$32.85 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 58¢ | $378.8 | $468.55 | +$89.75 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 59¢ | $330.47 | $414.32 | +$83.85 | 60% 935-625 (1560) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $351.45 | $355 | +$3.55 | 98% 3296-70 (3366) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 77¢ | $389.55 | $319.66 | -$60.79 | 44% 661-845 (1506) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 67.9¢ | $252.68 | $263.45 | +$10.77 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 50¢ | $152.18 | $244.12 | +$91.94 | 46% 971-1157 (2128) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 60.5¢ | $173.7 | $205.82 | +$32.12 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 69¢ | $205.52 | $200 | -$5.52 | 31% 611-1379 (1990) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 83.4¢ | $235.2 | $191.16 | +$11.65 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
AL almach | Downavg 83.3¢ | $131.09 | $157.39 | +$26.3 | 50% 1264-1258 (2522) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 90.9¢ | $146.51 | $143.71 | -$2.8 | 52% 767-721 (1488) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $80.01 | $134.41 | +$54.4 | 47% 1953-2201 (4154) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 81¢ | $187.13 | $119.62 | -$67.5 | 46% 705-840 (1545) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 70.3¢ | $74.8 | $106.42 | +$31.61 | 49% 1252-1281 (2533) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $75.29 | $82.16 | +$6.88 | 59% 885-605 (1490) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 65.8¢ | $61.09 | $76.78 | +$15.69 | 60% 871-591 (1462) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 54.2¢ | $60.53 | $81.49 | +$20.96 | 50% 703-697 (1400) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $33.6 | $60 | +$26.4 | 48% 652-705 (1357) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 66.4¢ | $44.89 | $52.95 | +$8.06 | 59% 868-609 (1477) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $53.11 | $49.7 | -$3.41 | 47% 1910-2144 (4054) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $31.78 | $64.88 | +$33.1 | 39% 677-1050 (1727) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$10.62
Record
38%
184-299 (483)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$928.8
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Invested
$552.69
Value
$486.96
PnL
-$2.3
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Invested
$448.24
Value
$481.09
PnL
+$32.85
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$378.8
Value
$468.55
PnL
+$89.75
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
Invested
$330.47
Value
$414.32
PnL
+$83.85
Record
60%
935-625 (1560)
Invested
$351.45
Value
$355
PnL
+$3.55
Record
98%
3296-70 (3366)
Invested
$389.55
Value
$319.66
PnL
-$60.79
Record
44%
661-845 (1506)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$252.68
Value
$263.45
PnL
+$10.77
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
machinelearnedInvested
$152.18
Value
$244.12
PnL
+$91.94
Record
46%
971-1157 (2128)
Invested
$173.7
Value
$205.82
PnL
+$32.12
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
Invested
$205.52
Value
$200
PnL
-$5.52
Record
31%
611-1379 (1990)
Invested
$235.2
Value
$191.16
PnL
+$11.65
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$131.09
Value
$157.39
PnL
+$26.3
Record
50%
1264-1258 (2522)
Invested
$146.51
Value
$143.71
PnL
-$2.8
Record
52%
767-721 (1488)
Invested
$80.01
Value
$134.41
PnL
+$54.4
Record
47%
1953-2201 (4154)
Invested
$187.13
Value
$119.62
PnL
-$67.5
Record
46%
705-840 (1545)
Invested
$74.8
Value
$106.42
PnL
+$31.61
Record
49%
1252-1281 (2533)
Invested
$75.29
Value
$82.16
PnL
+$6.88
Record
59%
885-605 (1490)
Invested
$61.09
Value
$76.78
PnL
+$15.69
Record
60%
871-591 (1462)
Invested
$60.53
Value
$81.49
PnL
+$20.96
Record
50%
703-697 (1400)
Invested
$33.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$26.4
Record
48%
652-705 (1357)
Invested
$44.89
Value
$52.95
PnL
+$8.06
Record
59%
868-609 (1477)
Invested
$53.11
Value
$49.7
PnL
-$3.41
Record
47%
1910-2144 (4054)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$31.78
Value
$64.88
PnL
+$33.1
Record
39%
677-1050 (1727)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.8K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $486.96
blue.birds
Down — $481.09
CrouchPredictions
Down — $468.55
Bonereaper
Down — $414.32
hoodquant
Down — $355
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $319.66
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $263.45
machinelearned
Down — $244.12