Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
42
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$12.1K
$28.25
Smart Money Signal
30 of 42 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$74.83 | 38% 184-299 (483) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$18.1 | 51% 1269-1214 (2483) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$11.55 | 98% 3296-70 (3366) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 86.8¢ | $699.53 | $805.45 | +$105.92 | 49% 1252-1281 (2533) |
AL almach | Downavg 75.4¢ | $446.73 | $592.27 | +$145.54 | 50% 1264-1258 (2522) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $521.51 | $497.58 | -$3.17 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 81¢ | $353.77 | $362.77 | +$9.01 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
BO bosona | Downavg 70.2¢ | $218.96 | $311.95 | +$92.99 | 51% 4508-4382 (8890) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 80.4¢ | $181.4 | $201.47 | +$21.07 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 73.7¢ | $140.78 | $191 | +$50.22 | 51% 880-838 (1718) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 74.8¢ | $186.12 | $177.52 | -$8.6 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 33.5¢ | $228.72 | $75.1 | -$153.62 | 60% 935-625 (1560) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.5¢ | $176.41 | — | -$176.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.7¢ | $52.31 | $75.1 | +$22.79 | |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 99¢ | $130.94 | $131 | +$0.06 | 38% 1273-2090 (3363) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 96.5¢ | $146.79 | $126 | -$20.79 | 48% 652-705 (1357) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 81.7¢ | $98.94 | $121.07 | +$22.13 | 55% 805-662 (1467) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 96¢ | $141.49 | $100 | -$41.49 | 31% 611-1379 (1990) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $85.75 | — | -$85.75 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 84.2¢ | $122.93 | $86.77 | -$17.86 | 44% 661-845 (1506) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $62.15 | $80.76 | +$18.6 | 53% 775-688 (1463) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $79.5 | $46.21 | -$14.99 | 46% 705-840 (1545) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $40.18 | $41 | +$0.82 | 52% 2431-2242 (4673) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 95.3¢ | $39.85 | $40 | +$0.15 | 52% 767-721 (1488) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 24.5¢ | $107.14 | — | -$107.14 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $31.12 | $36.67 | +$5.54 | 51% 692-675 (1367) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.3¢ | $99.21 | — | -$99.21 | 46% 971-1157 (2128) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$74.83
Record
38%
184-299 (483)
Invested
$1,791.5
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$18.1
Record
51%
1269-1214 (2483)
Invested
$1,143.45
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$11.55
Record
98%
3296-70 (3366)
Invested
$699.53
Value
$805.45
PnL
+$105.92
Record
49%
1252-1281 (2533)
Invested
$446.73
Value
$592.27
PnL
+$145.54
Record
50%
1264-1258 (2522)
Invested
$521.51
Value
$497.58
PnL
-$3.17
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$353.77
Value
$362.77
PnL
+$9.01
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$218.96
Value
$311.95
PnL
+$92.99
Record
51%
4508-4382 (8890)
Invested
$181.4
Value
$201.47
PnL
+$21.07
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$140.78
Value
$191
PnL
+$50.22
Record
51%
880-838 (1718)
Invested
$186.12
Value
$177.52
PnL
-$8.6
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
Invested
$228.72
Value
$75.1
PnL
-$153.62
Record
60%
935-625 (1560)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$130.94
Value
$131
PnL
+$0.06
Record
38%
1273-2090 (3363)
Invested
$146.79
Value
$126
PnL
-$20.79
Record
48%
652-705 (1357)
Invested
$98.94
Value
$121.07
PnL
+$22.13
Record
55%
805-662 (1467)
Invested
$141.49
Value
$100
PnL
-$41.49
Record
31%
611-1379 (1990)
Invested
$85.75
Value
—
PnL
-$85.75
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$122.93
Value
$86.77
PnL
-$17.86
Record
44%
661-845 (1506)
Invested
$62.15
Value
$80.76
PnL
+$18.6
Record
53%
775-688 (1463)
Invested
$79.5
Value
$46.21
PnL
-$14.99
Record
46%
705-840 (1545)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$40.18
Value
$41
PnL
+$0.82
Record
52%
2431-2242 (4673)
Invested
$39.85
Value
$40
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
767-721 (1488)
Invested
$107.14
Value
—
PnL
-$107.14
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
Invested
$31.12
Value
$36.67
PnL
+$5.54
Record
51%
692-675 (1367)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$99.21
Value
—
PnL
-$99.21
Record
46%
971-1157 (2128)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
0x50f7
Down — $1.8K
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
mo-money
Down — $805.45
almach
Down — $592.27
ByteBadger92
Down — $497.58
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $362.77
bosona
Down — $311.95
asdcaxz
Down — $201.47
Little-big
Down — $191