Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 49%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$-8.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 52 top traders (48%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,420

Combined PnL$-9.1K

Up27 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,780

Combined PnL+$417.13

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.8K	38% 184-299 (483)
ST stepahead	Upavg 59.4¢	$716.96	$777.49	+$60.53	55% 4289-3523 (7812)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$757.81	$765.46	+$7.65	99% 761-7 (768)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 38.3¢	$353.01	$596.96	+$263.28	46% 705-840 (1545)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 46.3¢	$536.49	—	-$536.49	52% 4818-4502 (9320)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 47.3¢	$869.75	$425.28	-$444.47	46% 971-1157 (2128)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.7¢	$122.2	$425.28	+$303.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.3¢	$747.55	—	-$747.55
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 70.5¢	$443.51	—	-$443.51	60% 935-625 (1560)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 45.3¢	$520.62	—	-$515.22	44% 661-845 (1506)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Downavg 54¢	$567.11	—	-$492.57	50% 4185-4256 (8441)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 53¢	$584.27	—	-$487.63	55% 3148-2619 (5767)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97¢	$462.69	$477	+$14.31	98% 3296-70 (3366)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 33.6¢	$406.41	$297.61	-$108.81	47% 913-1050 (1963)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$143.31	$297.61	+$154.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.6¢	$263.11	—	-$263.11
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 46.9¢	$369.79	—	-$369.79	31% 611-1379 (1990)
AL almach	Upavg 76.3¢	$350.52	$321.19	-$29.33	50% 1264-1258 (2522)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 59¢	$382.88	—	-$261.88	51% 2002-1886 (3888)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 98.6¢	$223.09	$226.33	+$3.24	50% 1717-1721 (3438)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 61.8¢	$224.36	$220	-$4.36	53% 4462-3883 (8345)
SU suntori	Upavg 66.3¢	$176.72	$168.24	+$56.86	46% 2495-2986 (5481)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 60.8¢	$111.39	$149.5	+$38.11	50% 703-697 (1400)
MO mo-money	Upavg 85.7¢	$325.66	$129.17	-$107.92	49% 1252-1281 (2533)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR	Downavg 72.2¢	$120.74	—	-$120.74	60% 871-591 (1462)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 60.8¢	$123.12	$107.57	+$1.93	51% 2884-2810 (5694)
SP spartacray	Upavg 45.9¢	$86.46	$116.99	+$30.53	59% 868-609 (1477)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$175.5	$78.62	-$96.87	47% 1953-2201 (4154)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.5¢	$38.14	$78.62	+$40.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.5¢	$137.36	—	-$137.36
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 84.2¢	$1.2K	—	-$593.11	51% 4508-4382 (8890)