Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
47
Down 83%
6 arb excluded
$14.2K
$336.59
Smart Money Signal
39 of 47 top traders (83%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$126.91 | 38% 184-299 (483) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 64.2¢ | $923.78 | $950.09 | +$26.32 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 54.6¢ | $621.24 | $730.13 | +$113.34 | 44% 661-845 (1506) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 57.7¢ | $645.83 | $650.17 | +$4.34 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 61¢ | $818.69 | $612.55 | +$10.06 | 31% 611-1379 (1990) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 59.7¢ | $544.87 | $569.86 | +$24.99 | 60% 935-625 (1560) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.7¢ | $527.34 | $521.13 | -$6.2 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $517.48 | $482.72 | -$18.19 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.7¢ | $604.19 | — | -$485.49 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 53.2¢ | $424.66 | $480.35 | +$55.69 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 64.1¢ | $263.58 | $307.46 | +$43.88 | 26% 422-1198 (1620) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $372.44 | $295.78 | +$43.44 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.5¢ | $149.35 | $295.78 | +$147.73 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.9¢ | $106.75 | — | -$104.28 | |
 machinelearned | Downavg 59.6¢ | $231.44 | $350.21 | +$118.76 | 46% 971-1157 (2128) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 62.8¢ | $223.34 | $242.36 | +$19.02 | 55% 805-662 (1467) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Upavg 53.6¢ | $176.79 | $160 | -$16.79 | 50% 678-668 (1346) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.6¢ | $91.41 | — | -$91.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.4¢ | $85.38 | $160 | +$74.62 | |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 40.6¢ | $201.71 | — | -$198.56 | 46% 705-840 (1545) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 64.3¢ | $147.6 | $162.29 | +$16.08 | 53% 775-688 (1463) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 61.1¢ | $142.59 | $218.74 | +$76.15 | 49% 1252-1281 (2533) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 48.3¢ | $91.7 | $155.7 | +$64 | 50% 703-697 (1400) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 81.9¢ | $144.45 | $141.35 | -$3.1 | 48% 652-705 (1357) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98¢ | $130.8 | $132 | +$1.2 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
AL almach | Downavg 58.1¢ | $144 | $247.99 | +$104 | 50% 1264-1258 (2522) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 69¢ | $86.25 | $125 | +$38.75 | 47% 1910-2144 (4054) |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 58.8¢ | $88.2 | $133.84 | +$45.63 | 37% 1256-2094 (3350) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 58.9¢ | $92.13 | $132.7 | +$40.58 | 51% 692-675 (1367) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$126.91
Record
38%
184-299 (483)
Invested
$923.78
Value
$950.09
PnL
+$26.32
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$621.24
Value
$730.13
PnL
+$113.34
Record
44%
661-845 (1506)
Invested
$645.83
Value
$650.17
PnL
+$4.34
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$818.69
Value
$612.55
PnL
+$10.06
Record
31%
611-1379 (1990)
Invested
$544.87
Value
$569.86
PnL
+$24.99
Record
60%
935-625 (1560)
Invested
$527.34
Value
$521.13
PnL
-$6.2
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
Invested
$517.48
Value
$482.72
PnL
-$18.19
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Invested
$604.19
Value
—
PnL
-$485.49
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Invested
$424.66
Value
$480.35
PnL
+$55.69
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
NIULAI4Invested
$263.58
Value
$307.46
PnL
+$43.88
Record
26%
422-1198 (1620)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$372.44
Value
$295.78
PnL
+$43.44
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$231.44
Value
$350.21
PnL
+$118.76
Record
46%
971-1157 (2128)
Invested
$223.34
Value
$242.36
PnL
+$19.02
Record
55%
805-662 (1467)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$176.79
Value
$160
PnL
-$16.79
Record
50%
678-668 (1346)
Both legs:
Invested
$201.71
Value
—
PnL
-$198.56
Record
46%
705-840 (1545)
Invested
$147.6
Value
$162.29
PnL
+$16.08
Record
53%
775-688 (1463)
Invested
$142.59
Value
$218.74
PnL
+$76.15
Record
49%
1252-1281 (2533)
Invested
$91.7
Value
$155.7
PnL
+$64
Record
50%
703-697 (1400)
Invested
$144.45
Value
$141.35
PnL
-$3.1
Record
48%
652-705 (1357)
Invested
$130.8
Value
$132
PnL
+$1.2
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$144
Value
$247.99
PnL
+$104
Record
50%
1264-1258 (2522)
Invested
$86.25
Value
$125
PnL
+$38.75
Record
47%
1910-2144 (4054)
Invested
$88.2
Value
$133.84
PnL
+$45.63
Record
37%
1256-2094 (3350)
Invested
$92.13
Value
$132.7
PnL
+$40.58
Record
51%
692-675 (1367)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
asdcaxz
Down — $950.09
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $730.13
blue.birds
Down — $650.17
ply-pm0
Down — $612.55
Bonereaper
Down — $569.86
stepahead
Down — $521.13
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $482.72
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $480.35