Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Down 44%
2 arb excluded
$9.5K
$-5.7K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 54 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$97.38 | 38% 184-299 (483) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 54.8¢ | $989.34 | $909.56 | -$75.08 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 30.3¢ | $689.56 | — | -$689.56 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 59¢ | $852.22 | — | -$852.22 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 53¢ | $702.78 | $694.75 | -$8.03 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 52.2¢ | $622.75 | — | -$620.26 | 44% 661-845 (1506) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 36.1¢ | $574.13 | — | -$574.13 | 31% 611-1379 (1990) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 51¢ | $552.28 | — | -$475.26 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 53.3¢ | $518.75 | — | -$471.95 | 60% 935-625 (1560) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 37.8¢ | $206.52 | $350.89 | +$147.07 | 46% 705-840 (1545) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 91.7¢ | $456.84 | $314.5 | -$142.33 | 26% 422-1198 (1620) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 73.4¢ | $366.67 | $303.53 | -$63.14 | 53% 775-688 (1463) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 64.8¢ | $243.96 | $301.42 | +$57.46 | 55% 805-662 (1467) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $325.26 | $239.34 | +$8.57 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $138.22 | — | -$137.85 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.3¢ | $98.87 | $239.34 | +$146.43 | |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 65.1¢ | $489.23 | — | -$489.23 | 46% 971-1157 (2128) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 69.2¢ | $256.85 | — | -$249.95 | 53% 4462-3883 (8345) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 44.7¢ | $505.93 | — | -$505.93 | 51% 4508-4382 (8890) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 21.7¢ | $61.26 | $188.99 | +$127.73 | 51% 705-683 (1388) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 61¢ | $135.45 | $170.48 | +$35.02 | 46% 627-747 (1374) |
 ohioismCTR | Upavg 46.1¢ | $103.7 | — | -$103.7 | 48% 1893-2072 (3965) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 67.2¢ | $166.97 | $144.15 | -$22.83 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.2¢ | $100.05 | — | -$100.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.4¢ | $66.92 | $144.15 | +$77.23 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 57.2¢ | $148.51 | $135.78 | -$8.33 | 39% 677-1050 (1727) |
 OhioAICTR | Upavg 40.6¢ | $199.69 | — | -$122.96 | 50% 678-668 (1346) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 69¢ | $112.3 | $107.7 | -$4.6 | 52% 767-721 (1488) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $95.08 | — | -$95.08 | 59% 885-605 (1490) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$97.38
Record
38%
184-299 (483)
Invested
$989.34
Value
$909.56
PnL
-$75.08
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$689.56
Value
—
PnL
-$689.56
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
Invested
$852.22
Value
—
PnL
-$852.22
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$702.78
Value
$694.75
PnL
-$8.03
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
Invested
$622.75
Value
—
PnL
-$620.26
Record
44%
661-845 (1506)
Invested
$574.13
Value
—
PnL
-$574.13
Record
31%
611-1379 (1990)
Invested
$552.28
Value
—
PnL
-$475.26
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Invested
$518.75
Value
—
PnL
-$471.95
Record
60%
935-625 (1560)
Invested
$206.52
Value
$350.89
PnL
+$147.07
Record
46%
705-840 (1545)
NIULAI4Invested
$456.84
Value
$314.5
PnL
-$142.33
Record
26%
422-1198 (1620)
Invested
$366.67
Value
$303.53
PnL
-$63.14
Record
53%
775-688 (1463)
Invested
$243.96
Value
$301.42
PnL
+$57.46
Record
55%
805-662 (1467)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$325.26
Value
$239.34
PnL
+$8.57
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Both legs:
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$489.23
Value
—
PnL
-$489.23
Record
46%
971-1157 (2128)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$256.85
Value
—
PnL
-$249.95
Record
53%
4462-3883 (8345)
Invested
$505.93
Value
—
PnL
-$505.93
Record
51%
4508-4382 (8890)
Invested
$61.26
Value
$188.99
PnL
+$127.73
Record
51%
705-683 (1388)
Invested
$135.45
Value
$170.48
PnL
+$35.02
Record
46%
627-747 (1374)
ohioismCTRInvested
$103.7
Value
—
PnL
-$103.7
Record
48%
1893-2072 (3965)
Invested
$166.97
Value
$144.15
PnL
-$22.83
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$148.51
Value
$135.78
PnL
-$8.33
Record
39%
677-1050 (1727)
OhioAICTRInvested
$199.69
Value
—
PnL
-$122.96
Record
50%
678-668 (1346)
Invested
$112.3
Value
$107.7
PnL
-$4.6
Record
52%
767-721 (1488)
Invested
$95.08
Value
—
PnL
-$95.08
Record
59%
885-605 (1490)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
blue.birds
Down — $909.56
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $694.75
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $350.89