Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Down 67%
4 arb excluded
$17.1K
$-7.8K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 48 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $6.3K | $6.3K | +$5.31 | 51% 1269-1214 (2483) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 38% 184-299 (483) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$32.78 | 99% 761-7 (768) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$891.06 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 77.1¢ | $757.34 | $693.92 | -$63.42 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 78.3¢ | $770.6 | $625.64 | -$144.96 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
BO bosona | Downavg 96.5¢ | $939.85 | $606.48 | -$333.37 | 51% 4508-4382 (8890) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 80.8¢ | $658.17 | $496.55 | -$51.51 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $563.57 | $495.35 | +$1.8 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.4¢ | $476.61 | $492.75 | +$16.14 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 63.3¢ | $476.61 | $455.34 | -$21.27 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $547.29 | $449.76 | -$20.52 | 31% 611-1379 (1990) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 66.5¢ | $432.97 | $416.99 | -$15.98 | 44% 661-845 (1506) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 63.5¢ | $361.46 | — | -$361.46 | 49% 1252-1281 (2533) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 71.6¢ | $503.35 | $363.14 | +$1.03 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 38.8¢ | $359.41 | — | -$323.6 | 60% 935-625 (1560) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 57.7¢ | $264.47 | $259.72 | -$4.75 | 46% 705-840 (1545) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 31.4¢ | $279.41 | $87.8 | -$191.61 | 46% 971-1157 (2128) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.4¢ | $243.41 | — | -$243.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41¢ | $36 | $87.8 | +$51.8 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 89.9¢ | $262.22 | $199.57 | -$62.65 | 51% 705-683 (1388) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 64.4¢ | $160 | $188.25 | +$28.25 | 53% 4462-3883 (8345) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 73¢ | $127.12 | $174.09 | +$46.98 | 48% 652-705 (1357) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 47.6¢ | $70.8 | $145.3 | +$74.5 | 51% 692-675 (1367) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 67.8¢ | $104.1 | $138.41 | +$36.68 | 52% 786-732 (1518) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 88¢ | $171.08 | $141.44 | -$29.64 | 53% 775-688 (1463) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 42.2¢ | $67.62 | $113.17 | +$66.8 | 47% 1910-2144 (4054) |
Invested
$6,340.71
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$5.31
Record
51%
1269-1214 (2483)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
38%
184-299 (483)
Invested
$3,239.22
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$32.78
Record
99%
761-7 (768)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$891.06
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Invested
$757.34
Value
$693.92
PnL
-$63.42
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$770.6
Value
$625.64
PnL
-$144.96
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
Invested
$939.85
Value
$606.48
PnL
-$333.37
Record
51%
4508-4382 (8890)
Invested
$658.17
Value
$496.55
PnL
-$51.51
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$563.57
Value
$495.35
PnL
+$1.8
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Invested
$476.61
Value
$492.75
PnL
+$16.14
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
Invested
$476.61
Value
$455.34
PnL
-$21.27
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Invested
$547.29
Value
$449.76
PnL
-$20.52
Record
31%
611-1379 (1990)
Invested
$432.97
Value
$416.99
PnL
-$15.98
Record
44%
661-845 (1506)
Invested
$361.46
Value
—
PnL
-$361.46
Record
49%
1252-1281 (2533)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$503.35
Value
$363.14
PnL
+$1.03
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$359.41
Value
—
PnL
-$323.6
Record
60%
935-625 (1560)
Invested
$264.47
Value
$259.72
PnL
-$4.75
Record
46%
705-840 (1545)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$279.41
Value
$87.8
PnL
-$191.61
Record
46%
971-1157 (2128)
Both legs:
Invested
$262.22
Value
$199.57
PnL
-$62.65
Record
51%
705-683 (1388)
FairValueMachineInvested
$160
Value
$188.25
PnL
+$28.25
Record
53%
4462-3883 (8345)
Invested
$127.12
Value
$174.09
PnL
+$46.98
Record
48%
652-705 (1357)
Invested
$70.8
Value
$145.3
PnL
+$74.5
Record
51%
692-675 (1367)
Invested
$104.1
Value
$138.41
PnL
+$36.68
Record
52%
786-732 (1518)
Invested
$171.08
Value
$141.44
PnL
-$29.64
Record
53%
775-688 (1463)
Invested
$67.62
Value
$113.17
PnL
+$66.8
Record
47%
1910-2144 (4054)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $6.3K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.3K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $693.92
CrouchPredictions
Down — $625.64
bosona
Down — $606.48
asdcaxz
Down — $496.55
ByteBadger92
Down — $495.35
stepahead
Down — $492.75