Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
45
Up 76%
4 arb excluded
$15.3K
$245.72
Smart Money Signal
34 of 45 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$26.38 | 38% 184-299 (483) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$29.4 | 99% 761-7 (768) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99.4¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$11.77 | 48% 1360-1458 (2818) |
BO bosona | Upavg 63.7¢ | $411.15 | $645.47 | +$234.32 | 51% 4508-4382 (8890) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $544.19 | $488.04 | -$0.48 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $246.51 | $488.04 | +$248.04 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.5¢ | $243.84 | — | -$248.52 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 61.1¢ | $416.39 | $453.07 | +$36.68 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 67.8¢ | $356.35 | $379.11 | +$32.32 | 60% 935-625 (1560) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 60.6¢ | $363.8 | $371.02 | +$7.22 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 78.2¢ | $313.11 | $329.07 | +$15.96 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $325.72 | $326.05 | +$0.33 | 51% 1269-1214 (2483) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 75.8¢ | $337.59 | $316.19 | -$21.39 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 70.3¢ | $340.93 | $272.56 | +$24.29 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 42.1¢ | $294.75 | $206.56 | -$88.19 | 44% 661-845 (1506) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.8¢ | $140.09 | $206.56 | +$66.46 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.1¢ | $154.66 | — | -$154.66 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 80.3¢ | $146.05 | $163.76 | +$17.71 | 55% 805-662 (1467) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 60.3¢ | $158.5 | $149.98 | -$8.51 | 31% 611-1379 (1990) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 93.8¢ | $117.75 | $120.26 | +$2.51 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 83.1¢ | $110.36 | $100.13 | -$10.23 | 59% 885-605 (1490) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 72.7¢ | $68.37 | $89.77 | +$21.4 | 49% 1252-1281 (2533) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Upavg 82.8¢ | $85.14 | $82.92 | -$2.22 | 60% 871-591 (1462) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $75.74 | $75.86 | +$0.12 | 50% 1264-1258 (2522) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 62.4¢ | $71.31 | $95 | +$23.69 | 53% 4462-3883 (8345) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 65.4¢ | $66.72 | $71.55 | +$4.83 | 50% 678-668 (1346) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Upavg 75.8¢ | $56.59 | $65.94 | +$9.35 | 50% 703-697 (1400) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 21.9¢ | $58.31 | — | -$58.31 | 46% 971-1157 (2128) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.7¢ | $85.48 | — | -$85.48 | 46% 705-840 (1545) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$26.38
Record
38%
184-299 (483)
Invested
$2,910.32
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$29.4
Record
99%
761-7 (768)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$2,084.48
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$11.77
Record
48%
1360-1458 (2818)
Invested
$411.15
Value
$645.47
PnL
+$234.32
Record
51%
4508-4382 (8890)
Invested
$544.19
Value
$488.04
PnL
-$0.48
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Both legs:
Invested
$416.39
Value
$453.07
PnL
+$36.68
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
Invested
$356.35
Value
$379.11
PnL
+$32.32
Record
60%
935-625 (1560)
Invested
$363.8
Value
$371.02
PnL
+$7.22
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
Invested
$313.11
Value
$329.07
PnL
+$15.96
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$325.72
Value
$326.05
PnL
+$0.33
Record
51%
1269-1214 (2483)
Invested
$337.59
Value
$316.19
PnL
-$21.39
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$340.93
Value
$272.56
PnL
+$24.29
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$294.75
Value
$206.56
PnL
-$88.19
Record
44%
661-845 (1506)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.05
Value
$163.76
PnL
+$17.71
Record
55%
805-662 (1467)
Invested
$158.5
Value
$149.98
PnL
-$8.51
Record
31%
611-1379 (1990)
Invested
$117.75
Value
$120.26
PnL
+$2.51
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$110.36
Value
$100.13
PnL
-$10.23
Record
59%
885-605 (1490)
Invested
$68.37
Value
$89.77
PnL
+$21.4
Record
49%
1252-1281 (2533)
Invested
$85.14
Value
$82.92
PnL
-$2.22
Record
60%
871-591 (1462)
Invested
$75.74
Value
$75.86
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
1264-1258 (2522)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$71.31
Value
$95
PnL
+$23.69
Record
53%
4462-3883 (8345)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$66.72
Value
$71.55
PnL
+$4.83
Record
50%
678-668 (1346)
Invested
$56.59
Value
$65.94
PnL
+$9.35
Record
50%
703-697 (1400)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$58.31
Value
—
PnL
-$58.31
Record
46%
971-1157 (2128)
Invested
$85.48
Value
—
PnL
-$85.48
Record
46%
705-840 (1545)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.9K
THG.
Up — $2.9K
cryingbabydicer87
Up — $2.1K
bosona
Up — $645.47
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
Up — $453.07
Bonereaper
Up — $379.11
stepahead
Up — $371.02
blue.birds
Up — $329.07
0x50f7
Up — $326.05