Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Up 68%
4 arb excluded
$15.0K
-$896.91
Smart Money Signal
35 of 51 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.7K | +$15.23 | 38% 184-299 (483) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$32.66 | 99% 761-7 (768) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 70.6¢ | $672.49 | $700.06 | +$27.57 | 44% 661-845 (1506) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 61.3¢ | $624.19 | $668.98 | +$44.79 | 60% 935-625 (1560) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.7¢ | $544.12 | — | -$494.72 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
BO bosona | Upavg 69.2¢ | $342.4 | $464.34 | +$121.94 | 51% 4508-4382 (8890) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72¢ | $449.02 | $455 | +$5.98 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 71.8¢ | $488.19 | $420.68 | -$49.28 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 67.8¢ | $399.51 | $393.93 | -$5.58 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 34.9¢ | $417.24 | $267.88 | -$149.36 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 74.6¢ | $199.94 | $267.88 | +$67.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.9¢ | $217.3 | — | -$217.3 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 90.1¢ | $384.31 | $320.11 | -$64.2 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 77.7¢ | $319.06 | $319.98 | +$0.92 | 55% 805-662 (1467) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 73.6¢ | $351.37 | $288.87 | -$44.48 | 31% 611-1379 (1990) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 31.6¢ | $345.86 | — | -$327.66 | 46% 705-840 (1545) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 70¢ | $228.2 | $225.75 | -$2.45 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
AL almach | Upavg 83.3¢ | $252.81 | $199.19 | -$53.62 | 50% 1264-1258 (2522) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 45.5¢ | $184.19 | $404.97 | +$220.78 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 70.1¢ | $136.25 | $182.11 | +$45.87 | 59% 885-605 (1490) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 71.4¢ | $142.6 | $171.58 | +$29.21 | 52% 786-732 (1518) |
SU suntori | Upavg 53¢ | $93.45 | $170.77 | +$82.54 | 46% 2495-2986 (5481) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Upavg 64.4¢ | $157.01 | $151.63 | -$5.38 | 50% 678-668 (1346) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.4¢ | $97.71 | $151.63 | +$53.92 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.5¢ | $59.31 | — | -$59.31 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 64.1¢ | $112.81 | $129.23 | +$16.42 | 48% 652-705 (1357) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 28.9¢ | $125.88 | $63 | -$62.88 | 50% 694-690 (1384) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28.9¢ | $85.56 | — | -$85.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64¢ | $40.32 | $63 | +$22.68 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 88¢ | $110.25 | $113.61 | +$3.36 | 52% 767-721 (1488) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 90.9¢ | $120.36 | $106.75 | -$13.6 | 53% 775-688 (1463) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$15.23
Record
38%
184-299 (483)
Invested
$3,233.34
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$32.66
Record
99%
761-7 (768)
Invested
$672.49
Value
$700.06
PnL
+$27.57
Record
44%
661-845 (1506)
Invested
$624.19
Value
$668.98
PnL
+$44.79
Record
60%
935-625 (1560)
Invested
$544.12
Value
—
PnL
-$494.72
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Invested
$342.4
Value
$464.34
PnL
+$121.94
Record
51%
4508-4382 (8890)
Invested
$449.02
Value
$455
PnL
+$5.98
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$488.19
Value
$420.68
PnL
-$49.28
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Invested
$399.51
Value
$393.93
PnL
-$5.58
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
Invested
$417.24
Value
$267.88
PnL
-$149.36
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$384.31
Value
$320.11
PnL
-$64.2
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$319.06
Value
$319.98
PnL
+$0.92
Record
55%
805-662 (1467)
Invested
$351.37
Value
$288.87
PnL
-$44.48
Record
31%
611-1379 (1990)
Invested
$345.86
Value
—
PnL
-$327.66
Record
46%
705-840 (1545)
Invested
$228.2
Value
$225.75
PnL
-$2.45
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$252.81
Value
$199.19
PnL
-$53.62
Record
50%
1264-1258 (2522)
Invested
$184.19
Value
$404.97
PnL
+$220.78
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$136.25
Value
$182.11
PnL
+$45.87
Record
59%
885-605 (1490)
Invested
$142.6
Value
$171.58
PnL
+$29.21
Record
52%
786-732 (1518)
Invested
$93.45
Value
$170.77
PnL
+$82.54
Record
46%
2495-2986 (5481)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$157.01
Value
$151.63
PnL
-$5.38
Record
50%
678-668 (1346)
Both legs:
Invested
$112.81
Value
$129.23
PnL
+$16.42
Record
48%
652-705 (1357)
Invested
$125.88
Value
$63
PnL
-$62.88
Record
50%
694-690 (1384)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.25
Value
$113.61
PnL
+$3.36
Record
52%
767-721 (1488)
Invested
$120.36
Value
$106.75
PnL
-$13.6
Record
53%
775-688 (1463)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.7K
THG.
Up — $3.3K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $700.06
Bonereaper
Up — $668.98
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $464.34
blue.birds
Up — $455
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $420.68
stepahead
Up — $393.93
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded