Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
47
Up 79%
3 arb excluded
$21.4K
-$229.97
Smart Money Signal
37 of 47 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | -$34.54 | 38% 184-299 (483) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$32.63 | 99% 761-7 (768) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 84.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$167.46 | 46% 971-1157 (2128) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 90.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$139.1 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
BO bosona | Upavg 92.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$91.3 | 51% 4508-4382 (8890) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 90¢ | $907.91 | $1.0K | +$92.09 | 49% 1252-1281 (2533) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $880 | -$26.9 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $440 | $880 | +$442.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $430 | — | -$469 | |
ST stepahead | Upavg 85¢ | $963.65 | $850.47 | -$113.18 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
AL almach | Upavg 90.2¢ | $1.1K | $720.22 | +$72.65 | 50% 1264-1258 (2522) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 96.4¢ | $589.73 | $612 | +$22.27 | 41% 1415-2011 (3426) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 80.5¢ | $560.31 | $563.62 | +$8.92 | 44% 661-845 (1506) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 75.6¢ | $489.64 | $554.39 | +$65.85 | 60% 935-625 (1560) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $567.45 | $497.9 | +$5.37 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53¢ | $263.84 | $497.9 | +$253.49 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.3¢ | $233.77 | — | -$248.12 | |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 79.2¢ | $437.69 | $471.35 | +$33.66 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 86.6¢ | $512.78 | $470.24 | -$42.54 | 31% 611-1379 (1990) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 81.2¢ | $490.92 | $457.06 | -$33.61 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 79.6¢ | $339.71 | $370.29 | +$30.58 | 46% 705-840 (1545) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 89.1¢ | $346.36 | $350.83 | +$4.47 | 50% 703-697 (1400) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 85.7¢ | $651.55 | $290.68 | -$23.63 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 81.2¢ | $195.3 | $230.14 | +$34.84 | 53% 775-688 (1463) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 82.7¢ | $185.74 | $193.89 | +$8.14 | 55% 805-662 (1467) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 87.3¢ | $167.36 | $186.87 | +$19.51 | 51% 705-683 (1388) |
GA gansinimenCTR<$100 | Downavg 22.3¢ | $92.83 | — | -$92.83 | 51% 315-300 (615) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 93.9¢ | $127.87 | $136.25 | +$8.38 | 38% 1273-2090 (3363) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 76.6¢ | $150.13 | $129.21 | -$9.9 | 50% 678-668 (1346) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$34.54
Record
38%
184-299 (483)
Invested
$3,230.37
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$32.63
Record
99%
761-7 (768)
machinelearnedInvested
$1,315.53
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$167.46
Record
46%
971-1157 (2128)
Invested
$1,214.1
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$139.1
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
Invested
$1,115.52
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$91.3
Record
51%
4508-4382 (8890)
Invested
$907.91
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$92.09
Record
49%
1252-1281 (2533)
Invested
$950
Value
$880
PnL
-$26.9
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Both legs:
Invested
$963.65
Value
$850.47
PnL
-$113.18
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
Invested
$1,135.52
Value
$720.22
PnL
+$72.65
Record
50%
1264-1258 (2522)
Invested
$589.73
Value
$612
PnL
+$22.27
Record
41%
1415-2011 (3426)
Invested
$560.31
Value
$563.62
PnL
+$8.92
Record
44%
661-845 (1506)
Invested
$489.64
Value
$554.39
PnL
+$65.85
Record
60%
935-625 (1560)
Invested
$567.45
Value
$497.9
PnL
+$5.37
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Both legs:
Invested
$437.69
Value
$471.35
PnL
+$33.66
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$512.78
Value
$470.24
PnL
-$42.54
Record
31%
611-1379 (1990)
Invested
$490.92
Value
$457.06
PnL
-$33.61
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Invested
$339.71
Value
$370.29
PnL
+$30.58
Record
46%
705-840 (1545)
Invested
$346.36
Value
$350.83
PnL
+$4.47
Record
50%
703-697 (1400)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$651.55
Value
$290.68
PnL
-$23.63
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$195.3
Value
$230.14
PnL
+$34.84
Record
53%
775-688 (1463)
Invested
$185.74
Value
$193.89
PnL
+$8.14
Record
55%
805-662 (1467)
Invested
$167.36
Value
$186.87
PnL
+$19.51
Record
51%
705-683 (1388)
Invested
$92.83
Value
—
PnL
-$92.83
Record
51%
315-300 (615)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$127.87
Value
$136.25
PnL
+$8.38
Record
38%
1273-2090 (3363)
OhioAIInvested
$150.13
Value
$129.21
PnL
-$9.9
Record
50%
678-668 (1346)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.8K
THG.
Up — $3.3K
machinelearned
Up — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.1K
bosona
Up — $1.2K
mo-money
Up — $1.0K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Up — $850.47
almach
Up — $720.22
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $612