Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
54
Down 35%
3 arb excluded
$10.4K
$-14.7K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 54 top traders (35%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-9.0K | 56% 354-283 (637) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 38% 184-299 (483) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$32.6 | 99% 761-7 (768) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $930 | +$28.65 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99¢ | $708.43 | $715.59 | +$7.16 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
AL almach | Upavg 75.9¢ | $904.33 | $732.29 | -$172.04 | 50% 1264-1258 (2522) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.5¢ | $565.62 | — | -$492.75 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 57.2¢ | $432.72 | $465.26 | +$57.06 | 60% 935-625 (1560) |
BO bosona | Upavg 51.6¢ | $241.45 | $453.9 | +$212.46 | 51% 4508-4382 (8890) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 55¢ | $356.02 | $379.59 | +$28.18 | 44% 661-845 (1506) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 74.4¢ | $334.8 | $347.37 | +$12.57 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 81.8¢ | $523.45 | $340.44 | -$183.01 | 49% 1252-1281 (2533) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 54.9¢ | $215.24 | $363.68 | +$148.43 | 46% 705-840 (1545) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 57¢ | $320.74 | $306.1 | -$14.64 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 65.6¢ | $229.01 | $292.88 | +$82.87 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 50¢ | $216.61 | $273.58 | +$56.97 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 32.8¢ | $291.98 | — | -$291.98 | 31% 611-1379 (1990) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 61.7¢ | $163.77 | $212.52 | +$48.75 | 55% 805-662 (1467) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 43.6¢ | $168.09 | — | -$168.09 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 45.3¢ | $118.94 | $131.42 | +$12.48 | 46% 971-1157 (2128) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 61¢ | $150.23 | $135.99 | -$14.23 | 53% 775-688 (1463) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 36.6¢ | $182.97 | $39.78 | -$143.19 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.6¢ | $158.62 | — | -$158.62 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.2¢ | $24.35 | $39.78 | +$15.43 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $108.51 | $106.69 | -$1.82 | 51% 705-683 (1388) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 56.1¢ | $114.09 | $102.1 | -$11.99 | 59% 885-605 (1490) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 62.6¢ | $79.2 | $89 | +$19.4 | 50% 678-668 (1346) |
Invested
$8,967
Value
—
PnL
$-9.0K
Record
56%
354-283 (637)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
38%
184-299 (483)
Invested
$3,227.4
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$32.6
Record
99%
761-7 (768)
Invested
$950
Value
$930
PnL
+$28.65
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Invested
$708.43
Value
$715.59
PnL
+$7.16
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$904.33
Value
$732.29
PnL
-$172.04
Record
50%
1264-1258 (2522)
Invested
$565.62
Value
—
PnL
-$492.75
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Invested
$432.72
Value
$465.26
PnL
+$57.06
Record
60%
935-625 (1560)
Invested
$241.45
Value
$453.9
PnL
+$212.46
Record
51%
4508-4382 (8890)
Invested
$356.02
Value
$379.59
PnL
+$28.18
Record
44%
661-845 (1506)
Invested
$334.8
Value
$347.37
PnL
+$12.57
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$523.45
Value
$340.44
PnL
-$183.01
Record
49%
1252-1281 (2533)
Invested
$215.24
Value
$363.68
PnL
+$148.43
Record
46%
705-840 (1545)
Invested
$320.74
Value
$306.1
PnL
-$14.64
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Invested
$229.01
Value
$292.88
PnL
+$82.87
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$216.61
Value
$273.58
PnL
+$56.97
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$291.98
Value
—
PnL
-$291.98
Record
31%
611-1379 (1990)
Invested
$163.77
Value
$212.52
PnL
+$48.75
Record
55%
805-662 (1467)
Invested
$168.09
Value
—
PnL
-$168.09
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
machinelearnedInvested
$118.94
Value
$131.42
PnL
+$12.48
Record
46%
971-1157 (2128)
Invested
$150.23
Value
$135.99
PnL
-$14.23
Record
53%
775-688 (1463)
Invested
$182.97
Value
$39.78
PnL
-$143.19
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
Both legs:
Invested
$108.51
Value
$106.69
PnL
-$1.82
Record
51%
705-683 (1388)
Invested
$114.09
Value
$102.1
PnL
-$11.99
Record
59%
885-605 (1490)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$79.2
Value
$89
PnL
+$19.4
Record
50%
678-668 (1346)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.3K
soswald1
Up — $930
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $715.59
almach
Up — $732.29
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $465.26
bosona
Up — $453.9
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $379.59