Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 37% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Up 37%
6 arb excluded
$18.3K
$-11.4K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 52 top traders (37%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $8.8K | $8.6K | -$26.59 | 56% 354-283 (637) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 38% 184-299 (483) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 62.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.8K | +$684.91 | 50% 1717-1721 (3438) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.05 | 99% 761-7 (768) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 52.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$20.56 | 44% 661-845 (1506) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 46.5¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 60% 935-625 (1560) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 67¢ | $856.62 | $842.6 | -$14.02 | 52% 4818-4502 (9320) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$816.91 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 63.3¢ | $834.8 | $789.94 | -$42.17 | 50% 4185-4256 (8441) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 55.9¢ | $774.5 | $721.18 | -$53.32 | 55% 4289-3523 (7812) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 45¢ | $583.5 | $669.26 | +$85.76 | 31% 611-1379 (1990) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 53.9¢ | $512.33 | — | -$512.33 | 50% 1264-1258 (2522) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.7¢ | $593.18 | — | -$464.63 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 44.9¢ | $504.73 | — | -$500.54 | 46% 705-840 (1545) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 50.8¢ | $619.58 | — | -$619.58 | 47% 913-1050 (1963) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 58.2¢ | $611.4 | — | -$385.74 | 51% 2002-1886 (3888) |
BO bosona | Upavg 79.8¢ | $308.9 | $333.71 | +$24.81 | 51% 4508-4382 (8890) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 57.3¢ | $308.34 | $287.24 | -$21.1 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.3¢ | $177.79 | — | -$177.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.5¢ | $130.55 | $287.24 | +$156.69 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 79.3¢ | $379.8 | $256.05 | -$123.75 | 53% 775-688 (1463) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $214.59 | $197.98 | -$16.61 | 50% 678-668 (1346) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.9¢ | $119.93 | — | -$119.93 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.8¢ | $94.67 | $197.98 | +$103.31 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 43.2¢ | $208.69 | $344.15 | +$135.46 | 53% 4462-3883 (8345) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.6¢ | $59.99 | — | -$59.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.2¢ | $148.7 | $344.15 | +$195.45 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR | Downavg 60.8¢ | $233.55 | — | -$233.55 | 51% 692-675 (1367) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 58.4¢ | $186.87 | — | -$186.87 | 39% 677-1050 (1727) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 58¢ | $691 | — | -$691 | 49% 1252-1281 (2533) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 62.6¢ | $114.29 | $140 | +$25.71 | 47% 1910-2144 (4054) |
Invested
$8,841.04
Value
$8.6K
PnL
-$26.59
Record
56%
354-283 (637)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
38%
184-299 (483)
Invested
$1,147.17
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$684.91
Record
50%
1717-1721 (3438)
Invested
$1,192.53
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.05
Record
99%
761-7 (768)
Invested
$1,115.41
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$20.56
Record
44%
661-845 (1506)
Invested
$1,145.53
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
60%
935-625 (1560)
Invested
$856.62
Value
$842.6
PnL
-$14.02
Record
52%
4818-4502 (9320)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$816.91
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Invested
$834.8
Value
$789.94
PnL
-$42.17
Record
50%
4185-4256 (8441)
Invested
$774.5
Value
$721.18
PnL
-$53.32
Record
55%
4289-3523 (7812)
Invested
$583.5
Value
$669.26
PnL
+$85.76
Record
31%
611-1379 (1990)
Invested
$512.33
Value
—
PnL
-$512.33
Record
50%
1264-1258 (2522)
Invested
$593.18
Value
—
PnL
-$464.63
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
Invested
$504.73
Value
—
PnL
-$500.54
Record
46%
705-840 (1545)
Invested
$619.58
Value
—
PnL
-$619.58
Record
47%
913-1050 (1963)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$611.4
Value
—
PnL
-$385.74
Record
51%
2002-1886 (3888)
Invested
$308.9
Value
$333.71
PnL
+$24.81
Record
51%
4508-4382 (8890)
Invested
$308.34
Value
$287.24
PnL
-$21.1
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
Both legs:
Invested
$379.8
Value
$256.05
PnL
-$123.75
Record
53%
775-688 (1463)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$214.59
Value
$197.98
PnL
-$16.61
Record
50%
678-668 (1346)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$208.69
Value
$344.15
PnL
+$135.46
Record
53%
4462-3883 (8345)
Both legs:
Invested
$233.55
Value
—
PnL
-$233.55
Record
51%
692-675 (1367)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$186.87
Value
—
PnL
-$186.87
Record
39%
677-1050 (1727)
Invested
$691
Value
—
PnL
-$691
Record
49%
1252-1281 (2533)
Invested
$114.29
Value
$140
PnL
+$25.71
Record
47%
1910-2144 (4054)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.6K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $1.8K
THG.
Up — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.1K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $842.6
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
Up — $789.94
stepahead
Up — $721.18