Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.3K

Combined PnL

-$320.66

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 52 top traders (58%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down30 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,447

Combined PnL+$481.91

Up22 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,606

Combined PnL-$802.57

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$8.1K	-$42.04	56% 354-283 (637)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.1K	$8.1K	+$4.1K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.1K	—	$-4.1K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$5.02	38% 184-299 (483)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$868.28	-$39.82	51% 3061-2966 (6027)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$434.14	$868.28	+$435.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 55.1¢	$647.06	$745.2	+$104.31	60% 935-625 (1560)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 84.7¢	$673.6	$628.86	-$43.64	52% 4818-4502 (9320)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$573.92	$460.7	-$113.22	47% 913-1050 (1963)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.3¢	$300.7	$460.7	+$160
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.3¢	$273.23	—	-$273.23
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$599.71	$500.58	+$5.76	55% 3148-2619 (5767)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.4¢	$257.31	$500.58	+$249.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.1¢	$240.3	—	-$243.81
ST stepahead	Downavg 66.7¢	$450.51	$480.96	+$30.45	55% 4289-3523 (7812)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 64.2¢	$427.46	$461.72	+$55.81	50% 4185-4256 (8441)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 70.2¢	$480.71	$413.18	-$67.53	44% 661-845 (1506)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.2¢	$289.88	$413.18	+$123.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.6¢	$190.83	—	-$190.83
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$384.04	$368.12	-$15.92	51% 2884-2810 (5694)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.6¢	$248.91	$368.12	+$119.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.7¢	$135.13	—	-$135.13
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 48.4¢	$293.07	—	-$293.07	50% 1717-1721 (3438)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 38.9¢	$300.08	$237.68	-$62.4	46% 705-840 (1545)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$127.1	$237.68	+$110.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.9¢	$172.98	—	-$172.98
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 66.8¢	$308.83	$264.42	-$44.41	49% 1252-1281 (2533)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.8¢	$176.59	$264.42	+$87.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$132.23	—	-$132.23
SU suntori	Downavg 54.7¢	$296.89	$244.48	+$65.9	46% 2495-2986 (5481)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$254.67	$231.39	-$23.28	51% 2002-1886 (3888)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.1¢	$169.06	$231.39	+$62.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.5¢	$85.61	—	-$85.61
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 58.4¢	$171.7	$232.22	+$60.52	53% 775-688 (1463)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 57.8¢	$213.38	$205.35	-$8.03	53% 4462-3883 (8345)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.8¢	$118.78	$205.35	+$86.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 39¢	$94.61	—	-$94.61
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 61.7¢	$153.41	$171.67	+$23.5	39% 677-1050 (1727)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 29.2¢	$358.02	$118.7	+$7.71	31% 611-1379 (1990)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$55.91	$118.7	+$75.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.2¢	$75.7	—	-$67.59
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 69¢	$149.66	$165.29	+$15.63	59% 885-605 (1490)
OhioAI	Downavg 63.9¢	$150.88	$141.13	-$7.61	50% 678-668 (1346)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 61¢	$116.83	$150.19	+$33.35	51% 692-675 (1367)
SP spartacray	Downavg 72.5¢	$130.21	$146.5	+$16.29	59% 868-609 (1477)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 54¢	$173.56	$85.9	-$87.65	55% 805-662 (1467)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.7¢	$70.2	$85.9	+$15.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$103.35	—	-$103.35

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,562

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$42.04

Record

56%

354-283 (637)

Both legs:

Down$4,060.1950¢+$4.1K

Up$4,099.0550¢$-4.1K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$5.02

Record

38%

184-299 (483)

Both legs:

Down$2,49050¢+$2.5K

Up$2,465.7250¢$-2.5K

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$868.28

PnL

-$39.82

Record

51%

3061-2966 (6027)

Both legs:

Down$434.1450¢+$435.18

Up$47550¢-$475

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$647.06

Value

$745.2

PnL

+$104.31

Record

60%

935-625 (1560)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$673.6

Value

$628.86

PnL

-$43.64

Record

52%

4818-4502 (9320)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$573.92

Value

$460.7

PnL

-$113.22

Record

47%

913-1050 (1963)

Both legs:

Down$300.765.3¢+$160

Up$273.2332.3¢-$273.23

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$599.71

Value

$500.58

PnL

+$5.76

Record

55%

3148-2619 (5767)

Both legs:

Down$257.3151.4¢+$249.57

Up$240.348.1¢-$243.81

stepahead

Down

Invested

$450.51

Value

$480.96

PnL

+$30.45

Record

55%

4289-3523 (7812)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$427.46

Value

$461.72

PnL

+$55.81

Record

50%

4185-4256 (8441)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$480.71

Value

$413.18

PnL

-$67.53

Record

44%

661-845 (1506)

Both legs:

Down$289.8870.2¢+$123.3

Up$190.8334.6¢-$190.83

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$384.04

Value

$368.12

PnL

-$15.92

Record

51%

2884-2810 (5694)

Both legs:

Down$248.9167.6¢+$119.21

Up$135.1334.7¢-$135.13

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$293.07

Value

—

PnL

-$293.07

Record

50%

1717-1721 (3438)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$300.08

Value

$237.68

PnL

-$62.4

Record

46%

705-840 (1545)

Both legs:

Down$127.153.5¢+$110.58

Up$172.9838.9¢-$172.98

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$308.83

Value

$264.42

PnL

-$44.41

Record

49%

1252-1281 (2533)

Both legs:

Down$176.5966.8¢+$87.82

Up$132.2350¢-$132.23

suntori

Down

Invested

$296.89

Value

$244.48

PnL

+$65.9

Record

46%

2495-2986 (5481)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$254.67

Value

$231.39

PnL

-$23.28

Record

51%

2002-1886 (3888)

Both legs:

Down$169.0673.1¢+$62.33

Up$85.6133.5¢-$85.61

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$171.7

Value

$232.22

PnL

+$60.52

Record

53%

775-688 (1463)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$213.38

Value

$205.35

PnL

-$8.03

Record

53%

4462-3883 (8345)

Both legs:

Down$118.7857.8¢+$86.57

Up$94.6139¢-$94.61

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$153.41

Value

$171.67

PnL

+$23.5

Record

39%

677-1050 (1727)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$358.02

Value

$118.7

PnL

+$7.71

Record

31%

611-1379 (1990)

Both legs:

Down$55.9147.1¢+$75.3

Up$75.729.2¢-$67.59

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$149.66

Value

$165.29

PnL

+$15.63

Record

59%

885-605 (1490)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$150.88

Value

$141.13

PnL

-$7.61

Record

50%

678-668 (1346)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$116.83

Value

$150.19

PnL

+$33.35

Record

51%

692-675 (1367)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$130.21

Value

$146.5

PnL

+$16.29

Record

59%

868-609 (1477)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$173.56

Value

$85.9

PnL

-$87.65

Record

55%

805-662 (1467)

Both legs:

Down$70.281.7¢+$15.7

Up$103.3554¢-$103.35

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 52 top traders (58%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6a20407a...ec4bb4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794642000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Down — $745.2

+$104.31

blue.birds

Down — $628.86

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Down — $480.96

+$30.45

asdcaxz

Down — $461.72

+$55.81

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$67.53

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