Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

29 of 42 top Polymarket traders hold Down (69%) · Down at 100¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.0K

Combined PnL

$10.48

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 99.5¢

+54% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 42 top traders (69%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares13,023

Combined PnL-$407.72

Down29 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares12,916

Combined PnL+$418.2

Up — 31%Down — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$8.3K	-$38.4	56% 349-275 (624)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$13.72	38% 179-290 (469)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$16.28	99% 753-7 (760)
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 72¢	$1.2K	$999.98	-$240	50% 1247-1249 (2496)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72¢	$719.99	$674.99	-$45
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$519.99	$325	-$195
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$920.94	-$5.85	51% 3032-2944 (5976)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$454.94	$623.27	+$169.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$472.5	$297.68	-$174.88
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 59.9¢	$503.57	$531.66	+$28.09	46% 902-1042 (1944)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$572.96	$499.43	-$3.02	55% 3113-2587 (5700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$246.49	$342.36	+$97.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$255.48	$157.07	-$100.07
machinelearned	Downavg 71.4¢	$341.39	$454.05	+$112.66	46% 966-1148 (2114)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 51.7¢	$499.76	$453.64	-$46.13	44% 654-838 (1492)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 50¢	$281.16	$376	+$144.75	60% 928-618 (1546)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 51.1¢	$328.22	$365.42	+$37.19	31% 603-1373 (1976)
SU suntori	Downavg 41.2¢	$272.86	$352.65	+$90.92	45% 2465-2964 (5429)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 70.9¢	$1.1K	$327.11	-$217.64	51% 4490-4374 (8864)
ST stepahead	Downavg 52.1¢	$287.2	$306.39	+$19.19	55% 4277-3516 (7793)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 84.2¢	$369.86	$304.88	-$64.98	50% 4163-4232 (8395)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 48¢	$278.23	$294.55	+$16.32	52% 4799-4479 (9278)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 55.8¢	$338.48	$268.78	-$55.92	51% 2869-2774 (5643)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 55.1¢	$174.62	$264.87	+$90.25	46% 698-834 (1532)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 49.4¢	$292.02	$241.71	+$53.15	51% 1978-1872 (3850)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 54.6¢	$79.51	$112.63	+$33.12	51% 697-679 (1376)
OhioAI	Downavg 55.1¢	$93.65	$104.37	+$10.72	50% 673-660 (1333)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$105.77	$100.53	-$5.24	39% 668-1047 (1715)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.7¢	$56.52	$62.73	+$6.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 41¢	$49.25	$37.8	-$11.45
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 46.1¢	$46.1	$99.5	+$53.4	44% 1860-2404 (4264)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$93.52	$90.53	-$2.99	60% 865-584 (1449)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 48¢	$100.58	$87.38	-$13.2	53% 4456-3876 (8332)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$72.92	$47.84	-$25.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.9¢	$27.65	$39.54	+$11.88

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,578

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$38.4

Record

56%

349-275 (624)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$13.72

Record

38%

179-290 (469)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,222.45

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$16.28

Record

99%

753-7 (760)

almachARB<$100

Invested

$1,239.98

Value

$999.98

PnL

-$240

Record

50%

1247-1249 (2496)

Both legs:

Invested

$950

Value

$920.94

PnL

-$5.85

Record

51%

3032-2944 (5976)

Both legs:

Up$454.9450¢+$169.02

Down$472.550¢-$174.88

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$503.57

Value

$531.66

PnL

+$28.09

Record

46%

902-1042 (1944)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$572.96

Value

$499.43

PnL

-$3.02

Record

55%

3113-2587 (5700)

Both legs:

Down$246.4950¢+$97.05

Up$255.4849.6¢-$100.07

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$341.39

Value

$454.05

PnL

+$112.66

Record

46%

966-1148 (2114)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$499.76

Value

$453.64

PnL

-$46.13

Record

44%

654-838 (1492)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$281.16

Value

$376

PnL

+$144.75

Record

60%

928-618 (1546)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$328.22

Value

$365.42

PnL

+$37.19

Record

31%

603-1373 (1976)

suntori

Down

Invested

$272.86

Value

$352.65

PnL

+$90.92

Record

45%

2465-2964 (5429)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$1,093.38

Value

$327.11

PnL

-$217.64

Record

51%

4490-4374 (8864)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$287.2

Value

$306.39

PnL

+$19.19

Record

55%

4277-3516 (7793)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$369.86

Value

$304.88

PnL

-$64.98

Record

50%

4163-4232 (8395)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$278.23

Value

$294.55

PnL

+$16.32

Record

52%

4799-4479 (9278)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$338.48

Value

$268.78

PnL

-$55.92

Record

51%

2869-2774 (5643)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$174.62

Value

$264.87

PnL

+$90.25

Record

46%

698-834 (1532)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$292.02

Value

$241.71

PnL

+$53.15

Record

51%

1978-1872 (3850)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$79.51

Value

$112.63

PnL

+$33.12

Record

51%

697-679 (1376)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$93.65

Value

$104.37

PnL

+$10.72

Record

50%

673-660 (1333)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$105.77

Value

$100.53

PnL

-$5.24

Record

39%

668-1047 (1715)

Both legs:

Invested

$46.1

Value

$99.5

PnL

+$53.4

Record

44%

1860-2404 (4264)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$93.52

Value

$90.53

PnL

-$2.99

Record

60%

865-584 (1449)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$100.58

Value

$87.38

PnL

-$13.2

Record

53%

4456-3876 (8332)

Both legs:

Down$72.9248¢-$25.08

Up$27.6547.9¢+$11.88

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 42 top traders (69%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.