Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Up 71%
1 arb excluded
$15.0K
$-15.2K
Smart Money Signal
41 of 58 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-8.1K | 56% 349-275 (624) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 38% 179-290 (469) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$20.34 | 99% 753-7 (760) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$6.66 | 48% 1355-1450 (2805) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 84.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$19.41 | 50% 4163-4232 (8395) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 51¢ | $919.34 | $990.09 | +$70.75 | 46% 902-1042 (1944) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $912.7 | $903.58 | -$9.12 | 51% 1264-1206 (2470) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$865.11 | 51% 3032-2944 (5976) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 61.3¢ | $1.0K | $830.52 | -$194.26 | 60% 928-618 (1546) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 70.5¢ | $710.92 | $743.2 | +$32.28 | 55% 4277-3516 (7793) |
BO bosona | Upavg 80.7¢ | $936.79 | $649.32 | +$13.51 | 51% 4490-4374 (8864) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 65.4¢ | $609.97 | $617.64 | +$7.67 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 85.8¢ | $571.26 | $544.23 | -$27.03 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 71.4¢ | $682.4 | $526.73 | -$114.46 | 44% 654-838 (1492) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 82.5¢ | $775.36 | $502.93 | -$116.98 | 49% 1236-1272 (2508) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 48.4¢ | $556.31 | — | -$478.85 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 72.5¢ | $383.69 | $390.81 | +$7.12 | 51% 1978-1872 (3850) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 73¢ | $303.23 | $381.83 | +$78.59 | 53% 4456-3876 (8332) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 31.8¢ | $371.8 | — | -$362.01 | 31% 603-1373 (1976) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 74.7¢ | $391.01 | $362.18 | -$28.83 | 53% 768-681 (1449) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 64.9¢ | $378.56 | $360.6 | -$17.96 | 46% 698-834 (1532) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 68.6¢ | $296.03 | $332.21 | +$36.18 | 55% 798-656 (1454) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 70.1¢ | $220.04 | $265.62 | +$45.58 | 51% 697-679 (1376) |
AL almach | Upavg 87.9¢ | $541.8 | $246.79 | +$50.34 | 50% 1247-1249 (2496) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 70.2¢ | $240.12 | $226 | -$14.12 | 50% 697-689 (1386) |
Invested
$8,556
Value
—
PnL
$-8.1K
Record
56%
349-275 (624)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
38%
179-290 (469)
Invested
$2,011.04
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$20.34
Record
99%
753-7 (760)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$1,213.34
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$6.66
Record
48%
1355-1450 (2805)
Invested
$1,063.74
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$19.41
Record
50%
4163-4232 (8395)
Invested
$919.34
Value
$990.09
PnL
+$70.75
Record
46%
902-1042 (1944)
Invested
$912.7
Value
$903.58
PnL
-$9.12
Record
51%
1264-1206 (2470)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$865.11
Record
51%
3032-2944 (5976)
Invested
$1,028.54
Value
$830.52
PnL
-$194.26
Record
60%
928-618 (1546)
Invested
$710.92
Value
$743.2
PnL
+$32.28
Record
55%
4277-3516 (7793)
Invested
$936.79
Value
$649.32
PnL
+$13.51
Record
51%
4490-4374 (8864)
Invested
$609.97
Value
$617.64
PnL
+$7.67
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
Invested
$571.26
Value
$544.23
PnL
-$27.03
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
Invested
$682.4
Value
$526.73
PnL
-$114.46
Record
44%
654-838 (1492)
Invested
$775.36
Value
$502.93
PnL
-$116.98
Record
49%
1236-1272 (2508)
Invested
$556.31
Value
—
PnL
-$478.85
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$383.69
Value
$390.81
PnL
+$7.12
Record
51%
1978-1872 (3850)
FairValueMachineInvested
$303.23
Value
$381.83
PnL
+$78.59
Record
53%
4456-3876 (8332)
Invested
$371.8
Value
—
PnL
-$362.01
Record
31%
603-1373 (1976)
Invested
$391.01
Value
$362.18
PnL
-$28.83
Record
53%
768-681 (1449)
Invested
$378.56
Value
$360.6
PnL
-$17.96
Record
46%
698-834 (1532)
Invested
$296.03
Value
$332.21
PnL
+$36.18
Record
55%
798-656 (1454)
Invested
$220.04
Value
$265.62
PnL
+$45.58
Record
51%
697-679 (1376)
Invested
$541.8
Value
$246.79
PnL
+$50.34
Record
50%
1247-1249 (2496)
Invested
$240.12
Value
$226
PnL
-$14.12
Record
50%
697-689 (1386)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $2.0K
cryingbabydicer87
Up — $1.2K
asdcaxz
Up — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $990.09
0x50f7
Up — $903.58
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $830.52
stepahead
Up — $743.2