Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

$-8.7K

Smart Money Signal

39 of 50 top traders (78%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,472

Combined PnL$-8.9K

Up39 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares14,644

Combined PnL+$153.53

Down — 22%Up — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.6K	—	$-8.3K	56% 349-275 (624)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$38.13	38% 179-290 (469)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$17.19	99% 753-7 (760)
ST stepahead	Upavg 52.6¢	$748.69	$767.64	+$18.96	55% 4277-3516 (7793)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 74.6¢	$868.85	$692.7	-$176.15	46% 902-1042 (1944)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 66.3¢	$649.48	$623.65	-$14.96	60% 928-618 (1546)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 56.1¢	$517.62	$553.82	+$39.8	44% 654-838 (1492)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 35.9¢	$254.9	$613.16	+$358.27	50% 1696-1707 (3403)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 79.4¢	$603.97	$528.46	-$73.72	52% 4799-4479 (9278)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 48.1¢	$565.21	—	-$489.59	55% 3113-2587 (5700)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 63¢	$510.08	$448	-$62.09	51% 2869-2774 (5643)
BO bosona	Upavg 82.3¢	$308.57	$374.9	+$66.32	51% 4490-4374 (8864)
AL almach	Upavg 81.8¢	$304.58	$314.02	+$9.44	50% 1247-1249 (2496)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 52¢	$278.6	$288.49	+$49.09	31% 603-1373 (1976)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 68.3¢	$384.35	$289.96	-$18.96	51% 1978-1872 (3850)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 86.5¢	$316.6	$277.68	-$38.92	48% 647-697 (1344)
MO mo-money	Upavg 89.6¢	$1.1K	$264.43	-$282.7	49% 1236-1272 (2508)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 69.5¢	$187.46	$269.75	+$82.29	51% 685-668 (1353)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 80.7¢	$319.7	$232	-$11.22	50% 4163-4232 (8395)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 51.9¢	$167.2	$172.89	+$13.29	46% 698-834 (1532)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$196.63	$57	-$139.63	46% 966-1148 (2114)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$145.33	—	-$145.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 90¢	$51.3	$57	+$5.7
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 85.3¢	$187.03	$151.05	-$35.98	53% 768-681 (1449)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Downavg 43.3¢	$215.59	$129.74	-$85.85	51% 697-679 (1376)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$71.59	$129.74	+$58.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.3¢	$144	—	-$144
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 70.4¢	$139.7	$146.71	+$7.02	60% 879-598 (1477)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 57¢	$101.07	$116	+$14.93	53% 4456-3876 (8332)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,603

Value

—

PnL

$-8.3K

Record

56%

349-275 (624)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$38.13

Record

38%

179-290 (469)

THG.

Invested

$1,701.62

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$17.19

Record

99%

753-7 (760)

stepahead

Invested

$748.69

Value

$767.64

PnL

+$18.96

Record

55%

4277-3516 (7793)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$868.85

Value

$692.7

PnL

-$176.15

Record

46%

902-1042 (1944)

Bonereaper

Invested

$649.48

Value

$623.65

PnL

-$14.96

Record

60%

928-618 (1546)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$517.62

Value

$553.82

PnL

+$39.8

Record

44%

654-838 (1492)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$254.9

Value

$613.16

PnL

+$358.27

Record

50%

1696-1707 (3403)

blue.birds

Invested

$603.97

Value

$528.46

PnL

-$73.72

Record

52%

4799-4479 (9278)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$565.21

Value

—

PnL

-$489.59

Record

55%

3113-2587 (5700)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$510.08

Value

$448

PnL

-$62.09

Record

51%

2869-2774 (5643)

bosona

Invested

$308.57

Value

$374.9

PnL

+$66.32

Record

51%

4490-4374 (8864)

almach

Invested

$304.58

Value

$314.02

PnL

+$9.44

Record

50%

1247-1249 (2496)

ply-pm0

Invested

$278.6

Value

$288.49

PnL

+$49.09

Record

31%

603-1373 (1976)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$384.35

Value

$289.96

PnL

-$18.96

Record

51%

1978-1872 (3850)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$316.6

Value

$277.68

PnL

-$38.92

Record

48%

647-697 (1344)

mo-money

Invested

$1,100.89

Value

$264.43

PnL

-$282.7

Record

49%

1236-1272 (2508)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$187.46

Value

$269.75

PnL

+$82.29

Record

51%

685-668 (1353)

asdcaxz

Invested

$319.7

Value

$232

PnL

-$11.22

Record

50%

4163-4232 (8395)

GoodFallen

Invested

$167.2

Value

$172.89

PnL

+$13.29

Record

46%

698-834 (1532)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$196.63

Value

$57

PnL

-$139.63

Record

46%

966-1148 (2114)

Both legs:

Down$145.3347.9¢-$145.33

Up$51.390¢+$5.7

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$187.03

Value

$151.05

PnL

-$35.98

Record

53%

768-681 (1449)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$215.59

Value

$129.74

PnL

-$85.85

Record

51%

697-679 (1376)

Both legs:

Up$71.5955.2¢+$58.15

Down$14443.3¢-$144

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$139.7

Value

$146.71

PnL

+$7.02

Record

60%

879-598 (1477)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$101.07

Value

$116

PnL

+$14.93

Record

53%

4456-3876 (8332)

Smart Money Signal

39 of 50 top traders (78%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x86776440...243ed6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794641100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-8.3K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

-$38.13

THG.

Up — $1.7K

+$17.19

stepahead

Up — $767.64

+$18.96

CrouchPredictions

Up — $692.7

-$176.15

Bonereaper

Up — $623.65

-$14.96

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $553.82

+$39.8

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $613.16

+$358.27

blue.birds

Up — $528.46

ByteBadger92

Down — $0