Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.3K

Combined PnL

$-6.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

43 of 54 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,828

Combined PnL$-8.6K

Down43 traders

Total Value$25.4K

Total Shares25,404

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Up — 20%Down — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	—	$-8.3K	56% 349-275 (624)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$117.44	38% 179-290 (469)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$32.49	99% 753-7 (760)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$2.04	51% 1264-1206 (2470)
MO mo-money	Downavg 78.2¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$418.18	49% 1236-1272 (2508)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 86.6¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$242.53	41% 1393-1983 (3376)
AL almach	Downavg 80.7¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$348.11	50% 1247-1249 (2496)
BO bosona	Downavg 82.6¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$291.82	51% 4490-4374 (8864)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$776.11	$784	+$7.89	98% 3242-69 (3311)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 90¢	$700.62	$773.09	+$72.48	46% 902-1042 (1944)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 82.8¢	$646.95	$651.3	+$4.36	44% 654-838 (1492)
ST stepahead	Downavg 76.7¢	$580.21	$624.03	+$43.82	55% 4277-3516 (7793)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 75.2¢	$524.75	$560.36	+$35.61	60% 928-618 (1546)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.2¢	$421.59	$560.36	+$138.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.5¢	$103.16	—	-$103.16
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 52.2¢	$548.99	$494.08	+$8.92	55% 3113-2587 (5700)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 78.7¢	$842.25	$452.41	+$32.29	51% 1978-1872 (3850)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 82.4¢	$422.42	$424.78	+$2.36	52% 4799-4479 (9278)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 81.4¢	$395.88	$403.73	+$7.85	31% 603-1373 (1976)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99¢	$396	$400	+$4	48% 1355-1450 (2805)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 87.9¢	$436.64	$395.18	-$18.66	50% 4163-4232 (8395)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 87.6¢	$449.13	$312.45	-$136.68	46% 966-1148 (2114)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.6¢	$273.61	$312.45	+$38.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.9¢	$175.52	—	-$175.52
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 84.9¢	$269.09	$298.68	+$29.59	51% 2869-2774 (5643)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 64.9¢	$178.41	$257.48	+$79.07	51% 685-668 (1353)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 79.9¢	$176.55	$204.56	+$28.02	50% 689-682 (1371)
LI Little-big	Downavg 78.4¢	$198.12	$222.57	+$24.45	51% 875-831 (1706)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 90.9¢	$189.43	$192	+$2.57	55% 798-656 (1454)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,783

Value

—

PnL

$-8.3K

Record

56%

349-275 (624)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$117.44

Record

38%

179-290 (469)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,216.51

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$32.49

Record

99%

753-7 (760)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$2,035.35

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$2.04

Record

51%

1264-1206 (2470)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,538.37

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$418.18

Record

49%

1236-1272 (2508)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$1,569.47

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$242.53

Record

41%

1393-1983 (3376)

almach

Down

Invested

$1,458.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$348.11

Record

50%

1247-1249 (2496)

bosona

Down

Invested

$1,389.92

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$291.82

Record

51%

4490-4374 (8864)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$776.11

Value

$784

PnL

+$7.89

Record

98%

3242-69 (3311)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$700.62

Value

$773.09

PnL

+$72.48

Record

46%

902-1042 (1944)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$646.95

Value

$651.3

PnL

+$4.36

Record

44%

654-838 (1492)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$580.21

Value

$624.03

PnL

+$43.82

Record

55%

4277-3516 (7793)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$524.75

Value

$560.36

PnL

+$35.61

Record

60%

928-618 (1546)

Both legs:

Down$421.5975.2¢+$138.77

Up$103.1615.5¢-$103.16

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$548.99

Value

$494.08

PnL

+$8.92

Record

55%

3113-2587 (5700)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$842.25

Value

$452.41

PnL

+$32.29

Record

51%

1978-1872 (3850)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$422.42

Value

$424.78

PnL

+$2.36

Record

52%

4799-4479 (9278)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$395.88

Value

$403.73

PnL

+$7.85

Record

31%

603-1373 (1976)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$396

Value

$400

PnL

+$4

Record

48%

1355-1450 (2805)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$436.64

Value

$395.18

PnL

-$18.66

Record

50%

4163-4232 (8395)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$449.13

Value

$312.45

PnL

-$136.68

Record

46%

966-1148 (2114)

Both legs:

Down$273.6187.6¢+$38.84

Up$175.5220.9¢-$175.52

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$269.09

Value

$298.68

PnL

+$29.59

Record

51%

2869-2774 (5643)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$178.41

Value

$257.48

PnL

+$79.07

Record

51%

685-668 (1353)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$176.55

Value

$204.56

PnL

+$28.02

Record

50%

689-682 (1371)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$198.12

Value

$222.57

PnL

+$24.45

Record

51%

875-831 (1706)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$189.43

Value

$192

PnL

+$2.57

Record

55%

798-656 (1454)

Smart Money Signal

Down

43 of 54 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdee6dcb5...769b84

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794640800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-8.3K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.9K

+$117.44

THG.

Down — $3.2K

+$32.49

0x50f7

Down — $2.0K

+$2.04

mo-money

Down — $2.0K

+$418.18

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $1.8K

+$242.53

almach

Down — $1.8K

+$348.11

bosona

Down — $1.7K

+$291.82

hoodquant

Down — $784

+$7.89

CrouchPredictions

Down — $773.09

+$72.48

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