Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 51% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Down 53%
4 arb excluded
$21.5K
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 51 top traders (51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.4K | +$48.89 | 56% 349-275 (624) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$22.19 | 38% 179-290 (469) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$31.56 | 99% 753-7 (760) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 47.2¢ | $655.97 | $850.6 | +$216.79 | 60% 928-618 (1546) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 56.7¢ | $573.76 | $632.5 | +$58.74 | 46% 902-1042 (1944) |
AL almach | Downavg 87¢ | $898.93 | $534.33 | -$78.12 | 50% 1247-1249 (2496) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.6¢ | $562.18 | — | -$502.38 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 52.9¢ | $524.36 | $496.44 | +$68.08 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 74.7¢ | $392.02 | $432.7 | +$68.04 | 49% 1236-1272 (2508) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 58.1¢ | $376.48 | — | -$376.48 | 55% 4277-3516 (7793) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 83.8¢ | $382.45 | $414.2 | +$31.75 | 46% 966-1148 (2114) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 83.8¢ | $242.14 | — | -$242.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.9¢ | $140.31 | $414.2 | +$273.89 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 62.3¢ | $298.86 | — | -$298.86 | 44% 654-838 (1492) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 89.9¢ | $258.85 | $232.51 | -$24.6 | 55% 798-656 (1454) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 38¢ | $243.18 | — | -$243.18 | 31% 603-1373 (1976) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 42.9¢ | $357.92 | — | -$204.4 | 51% 1978-1872 (3850) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 64.3¢ | $151.2 | — | -$151.2 | 46% 698-834 (1532) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $147.78 | $138.78 | -$8.99 | 45% 618-743 (1361) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.5¢ | $115.67 | — | -$115.67 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.1¢ | $32.11 | $138.78 | +$106.67 | |
 OhioAI | Downavg 48¢ | $112.56 | $138 | +$35.52 | 50% 673-660 (1333) |
BO bosona | Downavg 52.8¢ | $840.26 | $186.07 | +$94.6 | 51% 4490-4374 (8864) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 68¢ | $129.33 | $125.98 | -$3.36 | 51% 697-679 (1376) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 57¢ | $108.3 | $126.75 | +$18.45 | 52% 779-726 (1505) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 37.9¢ | $74.36 | $139.25 | +$64.89 | 50% 689-682 (1371) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 62.4¢ | $112.33 | $105 | -$7.33 | 44% 1860-2404 (4264) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 64.8¢ | $106.7 | — | -$106.7 | 39% 668-1047 (1715) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 69.3¢ | $96.13 | $101 | +$4.87 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.4¢ | $33.73 | $101 | +$67.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.3¢ | $62.4 | — | -$62.4 |
Invested
$8,732
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$48.89
Record
56%
349-275 (624)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$22.19
Record
38%
179-290 (469)
Invested
$3,124.61
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$31.56
Record
99%
753-7 (760)
Invested
$655.97
Value
$850.6
PnL
+$216.79
Record
60%
928-618 (1546)
Invested
$573.76
Value
$632.5
PnL
+$58.74
Record
46%
902-1042 (1944)
Invested
$898.93
Value
$534.33
PnL
-$78.12
Record
50%
1247-1249 (2496)
Invested
$562.18
Value
—
PnL
-$502.38
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Invested
$524.36
Value
$496.44
PnL
+$68.08
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
Invested
$392.02
Value
$432.7
PnL
+$68.04
Record
49%
1236-1272 (2508)
Invested
$376.48
Value
—
PnL
-$376.48
Record
55%
4277-3516 (7793)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$382.45
Value
$414.2
PnL
+$31.75
Record
46%
966-1148 (2114)
Both legs:
Invested
$298.86
Value
—
PnL
-$298.86
Record
44%
654-838 (1492)
Invested
$258.85
Value
$232.51
PnL
-$24.6
Record
55%
798-656 (1454)
Invested
$243.18
Value
—
PnL
-$243.18
Record
31%
603-1373 (1976)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$357.92
Value
—
PnL
-$204.4
Record
51%
1978-1872 (3850)
Invested
$151.2
Value
—
PnL
-$151.2
Record
46%
698-834 (1532)
Invested
$147.78
Value
$138.78
PnL
-$8.99
Record
45%
618-743 (1361)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$112.56
Value
$138
PnL
+$35.52
Record
50%
673-660 (1333)
Invested
$840.26
Value
$186.07
PnL
+$94.6
Record
51%
4490-4374 (8864)
Invested
$129.33
Value
$125.98
PnL
-$3.36
Record
51%
697-679 (1376)
Invested
$108.3
Value
$126.75
PnL
+$18.45
Record
52%
779-726 (1505)
Invested
$74.36
Value
$139.25
PnL
+$64.89
Record
50%
689-682 (1371)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$112.33
Value
$105
PnL
-$7.33
Record
44%
1860-2404 (4264)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$106.7
Value
—
PnL
-$106.7
Record
39%
668-1047 (1715)
Invested
$96.13
Value
$101
PnL
+$4.87
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.4K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
THG.
Down — $3.2K
Bonereaper
Down — $850.6
CrouchPredictions
Down — $632.5
almach
Down — $534.33
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $496.44
mo-money
Down — $432.7
stepahead
CTRUp — $0