Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.4K

Combined PnL

$-9.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

34 of 52 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,457

Combined PnL$-9.3K

Down34 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares18,019

Combined PnL+$164.78

Up — 35%Down — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-8.1K	56% 349-275 (624)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$34.29	38% 179-290 (469)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$32.42	99% 753-7 (760)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$2.76	51% 1264-1206 (2470)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 96.3¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$81.94	50% 1696-1707 (3403)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$950	—	-$874.5	51% 3032-2944 (5976)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 76.2¢	$647.67	$670.33	+$23.57	52% 4799-4479 (9278)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$634.64	$623.04	-$11.6	50% 4163-4232 (8395)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.1¢	$486.34	$623.04	+$136.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.6¢	$148.3	—	-$148.3
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 88.8¢	$577.57	$545.86	-$31.71	46% 902-1042 (1944)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 78.4¢	$588.28	$543.09	+$16.58	31% 603-1373 (1976)
ST stepahead	Downavg 78.8¢	$515.01	$540.92	+$25.91	55% 4277-3516 (7793)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 52.6¢	$555.02	$489.28	-$5.51	55% 3113-2587 (5700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.6¢	$257.57	$489.28	+$248.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.9¢	$245.5	—	-$253.97
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 77.1¢	$496.9	$389.86	-$88.73	60% 928-618 (1546)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 26.1¢	$169.51	—	-$169.51	46% 966-1148 (2114)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 83.1¢	$303.37	$213.01	-$90.37	44% 654-838 (1492)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.1¢	$176.95	$213.01	+$36.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.2¢	$126.43	—	-$126.43
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 72.2¢	$201.95	$238.57	+$36.61	55% 798-656 (1454)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 77.6¢	$340.38	$209.81	-$40.32	51% 1978-1872 (3850)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 74.1¢	$163.57	$170.81	+$7.24	53% 768-681 (1449)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Downavg 78.3¢	$120.73	$130.66	+$9.94	50% 679-691 (1370)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 82.4¢	$161.13	$130	-$31.13	51% 2869-2774 (5643)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 81.8¢	$122.49	$136.76	+$14.27	48% 647-697 (1344)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 63.2¢	$77.7	$122.94	+$45.25	37% 1244-2078 (3322)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 72.5¢	$91.34	$125.98	+$34.64	51% 697-679 (1376)
BO bosona	Downavg 99.6¢	$326.79	$108.35	-$59.62	51% 4490-4374 (8864)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 73.6¢	$104.65	$105.84	+$1.19	60% 879-598 (1477)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,656

Value

—

PnL

$-8.1K

Record

56%

349-275 (624)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$34.29

Record

38%

179-290 (469)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,209.58

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$32.42

Record

99%

753-7 (760)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$2,755.91

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$2.76

Record

51%

1264-1206 (2470)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,161.84

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$81.94

Record

50%

1696-1707 (3403)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$950

Value

—

PnL

-$874.5

Record

51%

3032-2944 (5976)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$647.67

Value

$670.33

PnL

+$23.57

Record

52%

4799-4479 (9278)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$634.64

Value

$623.04

PnL

-$11.6

Record

50%

4163-4232 (8395)

Both legs:

Down$486.3478.1¢+$136.7

Up$148.322.6¢-$148.3

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$577.57

Value

$545.86

PnL

-$31.71

Record

46%

902-1042 (1944)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$588.28

Value

$543.09

PnL

+$16.58

Record

31%

603-1373 (1976)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$515.01

Value

$540.92

PnL

+$25.91

Record

55%

4277-3516 (7793)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$555.02

Value

$489.28

PnL

-$5.51

Record

55%

3113-2587 (5700)

Both legs:

Down$257.5752.6¢+$248.46

Up$245.547.9¢-$253.97

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$496.9

Value

$389.86

PnL

-$88.73

Record

60%

928-618 (1546)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$169.51

Value

—

PnL

-$169.51

Record

46%

966-1148 (2114)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$303.37

Value

$213.01

PnL

-$90.37

Record

44%

654-838 (1492)

Both legs:

Down$176.9583.1¢+$36.06

Up$126.4324.2¢-$126.43

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$201.95

Value

$238.57

PnL

+$36.61

Record

55%

798-656 (1454)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$340.38

Value

$209.81

PnL

-$40.32

Record

51%

1978-1872 (3850)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$163.57

Value

$170.81

PnL

+$7.24

Record

53%

768-681 (1449)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Down

Invested

$120.73

Value

$130.66

PnL

+$9.94

Record

50%

679-691 (1370)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$161.13

Value

$130

PnL

-$31.13

Record

51%

2869-2774 (5643)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$122.49

Value

$136.76

PnL

+$14.27

Record

48%

647-697 (1344)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$77.7

Value

$122.94

PnL

+$45.25

Record

37%

1244-2078 (3322)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$91.34

Value

$125.98

PnL

+$34.64

Record

51%

697-679 (1376)

bosona

Down

Invested

$326.79

Value

$108.35

PnL

-$59.62

Record

51%

4490-4374 (8864)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$104.65

Value

$105.84

PnL

+$1.19

Record

60%

879-598 (1477)

Smart Money Signal

Down

34 of 52 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x350be963...85dffc

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794640200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-8.1K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.9K

+$34.29

THG.

Down — $3.2K

+$32.42

0x50f7

Down — $2.8K

+$2.76

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.2K

+$81.94

soswald1

CTR

Up — $0

-$874.5

blue.birds

Down — $670.33

+$23.57

asdcaxz

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$11.6

CrouchPredictions

Down — $545.86

-$31.71

ply-pm0

Down — $543.09

+$16.58

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