Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 74%
4 arb excluded
$10.6K
$-13.0K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 55 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.9K | 56% 349-275 (624) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 38% 179-290 (469) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$32.39 | 99% 753-7 (760) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 66.1¢ | $707.37 | $829 | +$121.63 | 46% 902-1042 (1944) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 61.6¢ | $665.85 | $686.21 | +$20.36 | 55% 4277-3516 (7793) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 68.8¢ | $686.67 | $688.31 | +$1.64 | 50% 4163-4232 (8395) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 62.8¢ | $605.37 | $551.9 | -$51.77 | 60% 928-618 (1546) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.1¢ | $541.63 | — | -$499.99 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
BO bosona | Downavg 73.4¢ | $493.98 | $457.35 | -$36.63 | 51% 4490-4374 (8864) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 65.4¢ | $425.33 | $423.27 | +$23.19 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 61.2¢ | $363.02 | $423.09 | +$60.07 | 44% 654-838 (1492) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 71.9¢ | $372.24 | $424.92 | +$52.68 | 46% 966-1148 (2114) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $344.45 | $375.72 | +$31.27 | 31% 603-1373 (1976) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 59.6¢ | $307.13 | $331.75 | +$24.62 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 53.7¢ | $329.98 | $212.91 | +$48.98 | 51% 1978-1872 (3850) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 76.9¢ | $143.1 | $153.37 | +$10.28 | 49% 1236-1272 (2508) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $124.57 | $61.15 | -$63.42 | 39% 668-1047 (1715) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.1¢ | $94.18 | — | -$94.18 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $30.39 | $61.15 | +$30.76 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $116.77 | $117.95 | +$1.18 | 50% 1696-1707 (3403) |
 ohioism | Downavg 64.2¢ | $73.85 | $115 | +$41.15 | 48% 1870-2057 (3927) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $91.18 | $119.02 | +$27.84 | 51% 3032-2944 (5976) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Upavg 29.9¢ | $87.89 | $97.36 | +$9.48 | 45% 618-743 (1361) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.7¢ | $43.57 | $97.36 | +$53.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.9¢ | $44.32 | — | -$44.32 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 66.6¢ | $75.96 | $114.13 | +$38.17 | 53% 768-681 (1449) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 27.4¢ | $134.18 | — | -$133.78 | 46% 698-834 (1532) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $81.89 | $100.45 | +$18.56 | 52% 779-726 (1505) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.5¢ | $40.69 | $100.45 | +$59.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $41.2 | — | -$41.2 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 27.2¢ | $78.53 | $40 | -$38.53 | 53% 4456-3876 (8332) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.2¢ | $55.39 | — | -$55.39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.9¢ | $23.14 | $40 | +$16.86 |
Invested
$8,604
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
56%
349-275 (624)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
38%
179-290 (469)
Invested
$3,206.61
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$32.39
Record
99%
753-7 (760)
Invested
$707.37
Value
$829
PnL
+$121.63
Record
46%
902-1042 (1944)
Invested
$665.85
Value
$686.21
PnL
+$20.36
Record
55%
4277-3516 (7793)
Invested
$686.67
Value
$688.31
PnL
+$1.64
Record
50%
4163-4232 (8395)
Invested
$605.37
Value
$551.9
PnL
-$51.77
Record
60%
928-618 (1546)
Invested
$541.63
Value
—
PnL
-$499.99
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Invested
$493.98
Value
$457.35
PnL
-$36.63
Record
51%
4490-4374 (8864)
Invested
$425.33
Value
$423.27
PnL
+$23.19
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
Invested
$363.02
Value
$423.09
PnL
+$60.07
Record
44%
654-838 (1492)
machinelearnedInvested
$372.24
Value
$424.92
PnL
+$52.68
Record
46%
966-1148 (2114)
Invested
$344.45
Value
$375.72
PnL
+$31.27
Record
31%
603-1373 (1976)
Invested
$307.13
Value
$331.75
PnL
+$24.62
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$329.98
Value
$212.91
PnL
+$48.98
Record
51%
1978-1872 (3850)
Invested
$143.1
Value
$153.37
PnL
+$10.28
Record
49%
1236-1272 (2508)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$124.57
Value
$61.15
PnL
-$63.42
Record
39%
668-1047 (1715)
Both legs:
Invested
$116.77
Value
$117.95
PnL
+$1.18
Record
50%
1696-1707 (3403)
ohioismInvested
$73.85
Value
$115
PnL
+$41.15
Record
48%
1870-2057 (3927)
Invested
$91.18
Value
$119.02
PnL
+$27.84
Record
51%
3032-2944 (5976)
Invested
$87.89
Value
$97.36
PnL
+$9.48
Record
45%
618-743 (1361)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.96
Value
$114.13
PnL
+$38.17
Record
53%
768-681 (1449)
Invested
$134.18
Value
—
PnL
-$133.78
Record
46%
698-834 (1532)
Invested
$81.89
Value
$100.45
PnL
+$18.56
Record
52%
779-726 (1505)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$78.53
Value
$40
PnL
-$38.53
Record
53%
4456-3876 (8332)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $829
stepahead
Down — $686.21
asdcaxz
Down — $688.31
Bonereaper
Down — $551.9
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
bosona
Down — $457.35
blue.birds
Down — $423.27