Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
49
Down 56%
10 arb excluded
$9.3K
$-16.2K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 49 top traders (53%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.3K | 56% 349-275 (624) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.1K | 38% 179-290 (469) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$32.9 | 99% 753-7 (760) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 71.4¢ | $744.18 | — | -$744.18 | 60% 928-618 (1546) |
BO bosona | Upavg 35.3¢ | $626.98 | $918.13 | +$291.15 | 51% 4490-4374 (8864) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 59¢ | $686.69 | — | -$686.69 | 46% 902-1042 (1944) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 62.8¢ | $561.94 | $618.62 | +$56.68 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 41.5¢ | $458.12 | $618.42 | +$160.3 | 49% 1236-1272 (2508) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 67.8¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 46% 966-1148 (2114) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 53.2¢ | $504.9 | $501.26 | -$3.64 | 55% 4277-3516 (7793) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.6¢ | $539.06 | $490 | -$11.69 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.6¢ | $262.13 | — | -$256.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48¢ | $235.06 | $490 | +$244.9 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 65¢ | $305.33 | — | -$305.33 | 44% 654-838 (1492) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 63.8¢ | $497.28 | — | -$348.36 | 51% 1978-1872 (3850) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 38.4¢ | $283 | $324.01 | +$71.74 | 50% 4163-4232 (8395) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 82.1¢ | $252.46 | $307.67 | +$55.21 | 50% 1696-1707 (3403) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 67.2¢ | $239.82 | $278.86 | +$39.04 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.2¢ | $171.61 | — | -$171.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.5¢ | $68.21 | $278.86 | +$210.65 | |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 61.8¢ | $180.78 | — | -$180.78 | 46% 698-834 (1532) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 73.6¢ | $178.38 | — | -$178.38 | 53% 768-681 (1449) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 53.5¢ | $276.01 | — | -$276.01 | 31% 603-1373 (1976) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 80¢ | $198.81 | $200 | +$1.19 | 45% 618-743 (1361) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Downavg 84¢ | $251.97 | — | -$251.97 | 51% 314-299 (613) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Downavg 62.6¢ | $220.71 | — | -$220.71 | 51% 697-679 (1376) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 52¢ | $143.09 | $169 | +$25.91 | 50% 673-660 (1333) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100 | Downavg 64.3¢ | $166.05 | $187.82 | +$21.77 | 50% 697-689 (1386) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.3¢ | $84.66 | — | -$84.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.3¢ | $81.39 | $187.82 | +$106.43 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.9¢ | $143.55 | $193.99 | +$50.45 | 48% 647-697 (1344) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.9¢ | $89.03 | $193.99 | +$104.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52¢ | $54.52 | — | -$54.52 |
Invested
$8,736
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
56%
349-275 (624)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.1K
Record
38%
179-290 (469)
Invested
$3,203.1
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$32.9
Record
99%
753-7 (760)
Invested
$744.18
Value
—
PnL
-$744.18
Record
60%
928-618 (1546)
Invested
$626.98
Value
$918.13
PnL
+$291.15
Record
51%
4490-4374 (8864)
Invested
$686.69
Value
—
PnL
-$686.69
Record
46%
902-1042 (1944)
Invested
$561.94
Value
$618.62
PnL
+$56.68
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
Invested
$458.12
Value
$618.42
PnL
+$160.3
Record
49%
1236-1272 (2508)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$1,061.97
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
46%
966-1148 (2114)
Invested
$504.9
Value
$501.26
PnL
-$3.64
Record
55%
4277-3516 (7793)
Invested
$539.06
Value
$490
PnL
-$11.69
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Both legs:
Invested
$305.33
Value
—
PnL
-$305.33
Record
44%
654-838 (1492)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$497.28
Value
—
PnL
-$348.36
Record
51%
1978-1872 (3850)
Invested
$283
Value
$324.01
PnL
+$71.74
Record
50%
4163-4232 (8395)
Invested
$252.46
Value
$307.67
PnL
+$55.21
Record
50%
1696-1707 (3403)
Invested
$239.82
Value
$278.86
PnL
+$39.04
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
Both legs:
Invested
$180.78
Value
—
PnL
-$180.78
Record
46%
698-834 (1532)
Invested
$178.38
Value
—
PnL
-$178.38
Record
53%
768-681 (1449)
Invested
$276.01
Value
—
PnL
-$276.01
Record
31%
603-1373 (1976)
Invested
$198.81
Value
$200
PnL
+$1.19
Record
45%
618-743 (1361)
Invested
$251.97
Value
—
PnL
-$251.97
Record
51%
314-299 (613)
Invested
$220.71
Value
—
PnL
-$220.71
Record
51%
697-679 (1376)
OhioAIInvested
$143.09
Value
$169
PnL
+$25.91
Record
50%
673-660 (1333)
Invested
$166.05
Value
$187.82
PnL
+$21.77
Record
50%
697-689 (1386)
Both legs:
Invested
$143.55
Value
$193.99
PnL
+$50.45
Record
48%
647-697 (1344)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.2K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $918.13
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $618.62
mo-money
Up — $618.42
machinelearned
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $501.26