Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Up 76%
5 arb excluded
$20.5K
$-5.4K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 51 top traders (76%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.6K | +$15.27 | 56% 349-275 (624) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 38% 179-290 (469) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$32.29 | 99% 753-7 (760) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$872.14 | 51% 3032-2944 (5976) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 66.4¢ | $845.51 | $819.03 | -$26.48 | 55% 4277-3516 (7793) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 70.6¢ | $794.39 | $802.13 | +$7.74 | 46% 902-1042 (1944) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 71.8¢ | $752.44 | $723.49 | -$28.95 | 31% 603-1373 (1976) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 82.1¢ | $765.46 | $691.23 | -$74.23 | 50% 4163-4232 (8395) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 66.7¢ | $570.77 | $708.16 | +$137.39 | 46% 966-1148 (2114) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $578.04 | $498.75 | -$6.1 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 66.6¢ | $472.13 | $420.34 | -$51.78 | 60% 928-618 (1546) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 55.4¢ | $333.58 | $341.68 | +$8.1 | 51% 1978-1872 (3850) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.4¢ | $189.44 | $341.68 | +$152.24 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.2¢ | $144.14 | — | -$144.14 | |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 79.2¢ | $332.95 | $321.84 | -$11.11 | 52% 4799-4479 (9278) |
AL almach | Upavg 67.6¢ | $387.64 | $573.16 | +$185.52 | 50% 1247-1249 (2496) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 74.1¢ | $241.41 | $267.83 | +$31.28 | 55% 798-656 (1454) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 49.7¢ | $234.99 | — | -$234.99 | 50% 1696-1707 (3403) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 77.8¢ | $280.83 | $208.33 | -$72.51 | 44% 654-838 (1492) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 76.9¢ | $172.98 | $225 | +$52.02 | 47% 1893-2128 (4021) |
BO bosona | Upavg 57.7¢ | $132.79 | $185.55 | +$59.41 | 51% 4490-4374 (8864) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 64.3¢ | $118.79 | $181.3 | +$62.5 | 49% 1236-1272 (2508) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 60.8¢ | $109.58 | $175.99 | +$66.4 | 51% 697-679 (1376) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 36.5¢ | $164.86 | $120.75 | -$44.11 | 53% 4456-3876 (8332) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.5¢ | $77.9 | $120.75 | +$42.85 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.5¢ | $86.96 | — | -$86.96 | |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 82¢ | $106.3 | $115 | +$8.7 | 44% 1860-2404 (4264) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 59.7¢ | $86.74 | $114.89 | +$28.15 | 53% 768-681 (1449) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 68.8¢ | $103.74 | $112.13 | +$8.39 | 60% 879-598 (1477) |
Invested
$8,758
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$15.27
Record
56%
349-275 (624)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
38%
179-290 (469)
Invested
$3,196.39
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$32.29
Record
99%
753-7 (760)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$872.14
Record
51%
3032-2944 (5976)
Invested
$845.51
Value
$819.03
PnL
-$26.48
Record
55%
4277-3516 (7793)
Invested
$794.39
Value
$802.13
PnL
+$7.74
Record
46%
902-1042 (1944)
Invested
$752.44
Value
$723.49
PnL
-$28.95
Record
31%
603-1373 (1976)
Invested
$765.46
Value
$691.23
PnL
-$74.23
Record
50%
4163-4232 (8395)
machinelearnedInvested
$570.77
Value
$708.16
PnL
+$137.39
Record
46%
966-1148 (2114)
Invested
$578.04
Value
$498.75
PnL
-$6.1
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Invested
$472.13
Value
$420.34
PnL
-$51.78
Record
60%
928-618 (1546)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$333.58
Value
$341.68
PnL
+$8.1
Record
51%
1978-1872 (3850)
Both legs:
Invested
$332.95
Value
$321.84
PnL
-$11.11
Record
52%
4799-4479 (9278)
Invested
$387.64
Value
$573.16
PnL
+$185.52
Record
50%
1247-1249 (2496)
Invested
$241.41
Value
$267.83
PnL
+$31.28
Record
55%
798-656 (1454)
Invested
$234.99
Value
—
PnL
-$234.99
Record
50%
1696-1707 (3403)
Invested
$280.83
Value
$208.33
PnL
-$72.51
Record
44%
654-838 (1492)
Invested
$172.98
Value
$225
PnL
+$52.02
Record
47%
1893-2128 (4021)
Invested
$132.79
Value
$185.55
PnL
+$59.41
Record
51%
4490-4374 (8864)
Invested
$118.79
Value
$181.3
PnL
+$62.5
Record
49%
1236-1272 (2508)
Invested
$109.58
Value
$175.99
PnL
+$66.4
Record
51%
697-679 (1376)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$164.86
Value
$120.75
PnL
-$44.11
Record
53%
4456-3876 (8332)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$106.3
Value
$115
PnL
+$8.7
Record
44%
1860-2404 (4264)
Invested
$86.74
Value
$114.89
PnL
+$28.15
Record
53%
768-681 (1449)
Invested
$103.74
Value
$112.13
PnL
+$8.39
Record
60%
879-598 (1477)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.6K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.2K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $819.03
CrouchPredictions
Up — $802.13
ply-pm0
Up — $723.49
asdcaxz
Up — $691.23
machinelearned
Up — $708.16
ByteBadger92
Up — $498.75