Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Signal

37 of 52 top traders (71%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up37 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares18,277

Combined PnL-$150.75

Down15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,634

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$8.4K	-$10.13	56% 349-275 (624)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$10.39	38% 179-290 (469)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$950	—	-$908.4	51% 3032-2944 (5976)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 66.7¢	$704.59	$734.52	+$29.93	50% 4163-4232 (8395)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 65.5¢	$510.93	$482.43	-$19.69	44% 654-838 (1492)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 48.6¢	$561.86	—	-$488.52	55% 3113-2587 (5700)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 82.8¢	$522.07	$460.96	-$61.11	31% 603-1373 (1976)
ST stepahead	Upavg 60.6¢	$427.77	$361.15	-$66.61	55% 4277-3516 (7793)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 72¢	$356.83	$276.83	-$32.51	52% 4799-4479 (9278)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 59¢	$275.19	$261.4	-$13.78	60% 928-618 (1546)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$154.24	$261.4	+$107.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$120.95	—	-$120.95
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Upavg 75.1¢	$236.76	$228.43	-$8.33	50% 679-691 (1370)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$355.67	$216.31	-$139.36	50% 1696-1707 (3403)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 72.3¢	$219.27	$231.94	+$14.44	55% 798-656 (1454)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 83.8¢	$218.77	$206.53	-$12.23	50% 697-689 (1386)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 55.4¢	$174.95	$201.81	+$26.86	46% 698-834 (1532)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 64¢	$380.15	$200.35	-$54.09	51% 1978-1872 (3850)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 71.1¢	$118.5	$150.1	+$31.61	60% 879-598 (1477)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 66¢	$401.52	$100.49	-$301.03	51% 4490-4374 (8864)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.9¢	$82.31	$100.49	+$18.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$319.21	—	-$319.21
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 52.8¢	$118.21	$120.7	+$2.49	53% 768-681 (1449)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 46.4¢	$212.8	$63	-$149.8	51% 685-668 (1353)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.4¢	$157.99	—	-$157.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 87¢	$54.81	$63	+$8.19
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$375.72	$77.02	-$298.7	49% 1236-1272 (2508)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.6¢	$67.47	$77.02	+$9.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.9¢	$308.25	—	-$308.25
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 46.8¢	$60.66	$128.61	+$67.96	51% 697-679 (1376)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 87¢	$132.2	$100	-$32.2	46% 966-1148 (2114)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87¢	$87	$100	+$13
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.2¢	$45.2	—	-$45.2
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 40.2¢	$647.51	$100	-$265.43	50% 1247-1249 (2496)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60¢	$60	$100	-$150.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.2¢	$60.39	—	-$115.02
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 64.4¢	$161.63	$97.3	-$64.32	50% 689-682 (1371)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.9¢	$63.16	$97.3	+$34.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.4¢	$98.46	—	-$98.46

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,617

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$10.13

Record

56%

349-275 (624)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$10.39

Record

38%

179-290 (469)

soswald1CTR

Down

Invested

$950

Value

—

PnL

-$908.4

Record

51%

3032-2944 (5976)

asdcaxz

Invested

$704.59

Value

$734.52

PnL

+$29.93

Record

50%

4163-4232 (8395)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$510.93

Value

$482.43

PnL

-$19.69

Record

44%

654-838 (1492)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$561.86

Value

—

PnL

-$488.52

Record

55%

3113-2587 (5700)

ply-pm0

Invested

$522.07

Value

$460.96

PnL

-$61.11

Record

31%

603-1373 (1976)

stepahead

Invested

$427.77

Value

$361.15

PnL

-$66.61

Record

55%

4277-3516 (7793)

blue.birds

Invested

$356.83

Value

$276.83

PnL

-$32.51

Record

52%

4799-4479 (9278)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$275.19

Value

$261.4

PnL

-$13.78

Record

60%

928-618 (1546)

Both legs:

Up$154.2459¢+$107.16

Down$120.9541.4¢-$120.95

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Invested

$236.76

Value

$228.43

PnL

-$8.33

Record

50%

679-691 (1370)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$355.67

Value

$216.31

PnL

-$139.36

Record

50%

1696-1707 (3403)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$219.27

Value

$231.94

PnL

+$14.44

Record

55%

798-656 (1454)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$218.77

Value

$206.53

PnL

-$12.23

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

GoodFallen

Invested

$174.95

Value

$201.81

PnL

+$26.86

Record

46%

698-834 (1532)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$380.15

Value

$200.35

PnL

-$54.09

Record

51%

1978-1872 (3850)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$118.5

Value

$150.1

PnL

+$31.61

Record

60%

879-598 (1477)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$401.52

Value

$100.49

PnL

-$301.03

Record

51%

4490-4374 (8864)

Both legs:

Up$82.3181.9¢+$18.18

Down$319.2166¢-$319.21

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$118.21

Value

$120.7

PnL

+$2.49

Record

53%

768-681 (1449)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$212.8

Value

$63

PnL

-$149.8

Record

51%

685-668 (1353)

Both legs:

Down$157.9946.4¢-$157.99

Up$54.8187¢+$8.19

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$375.72

Value

$77.02

PnL

-$298.7

Record

49%

1236-1272 (2508)

Both legs:

Up$67.4787.6¢+$9.55

Down$308.2558.9¢-$308.25

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$60.66

Value

$128.61

PnL

+$67.96

Record

51%

697-679 (1376)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$132.2

Value

$100

PnL

-$32.2

Record

46%

966-1148 (2114)

Both legs:

Invested

$647.51

Value

$100

PnL

-$265.43

Record

50%

1247-1249 (2496)

Both legs:

Up$6060¢-$150.41

Down$60.3940.2¢-$115.02

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$161.63

Value

$97.3

PnL

-$64.32

Record

50%

689-682 (1371)

Both legs:

Up$63.1664.9¢+$34.14

Down$98.4664.4¢-$98.46

Smart Money Signal

37 of 52 top traders (71%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe922de6e...2f9eae

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794639000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.4K

-$10.13

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

+$10.39

soswald1

CTR

Down — $0

-$908.4

asdcaxz

Up — $734.52

+$29.93

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $482.43

-$19.69

ByteBadger92

CTR

Down — $0

-$488.52

ply-pm0

Up — $460.96

-$61.11

stepahead

Up — $361.15

-$66.61

blue.birds

Up — $276.83

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded