Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 66%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.8K

Combined PnL

$-6.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 55 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down37 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares16,522

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,921

Combined PnL$-7.1K

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.5K	+$3.13	56% 343-271 (614)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.8K	38% 175-284 (459)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 95.6¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$95.67	50% 1684-1697 (3381)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$13.63	99% 749-7 (756)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 29.8¢	$863.95	—	-$863.95	46% 896-1035 (1931)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 72.9¢	$813.98	$846.51	+$32.53	52% 4780-4466 (9246)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 75¢	$708.71	$610.5	-$98.21	49% 1227-1262 (2489)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$457.91	$610.5	+$152.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.3¢	$250.8	—	-$250.8
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 26.9¢	$488.22	$433.58	-$54.63	45% 957-1147 (2104)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$240.16	$433.58	+$193.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.9¢	$248.05	—	-$248.05
ST stepahead	Downavg 60.1¢	$468.49	$510.02	+$41.53	55% 4269-3511 (7780)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$569.19	$494.2	-$0.36	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$240.62	$494.2	+$249.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$263.09	—	-$249.97
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 44¢	$527.16	—	-$464.36	60% 921-615 (1536)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 42.7¢	$328.33	$435.32	+$109.2	50% 4145-4216 (8361)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 73¢	$476.86	$365.7	-$111.16	50% 1236-1242 (2478)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73¢	$266.86	$365.7	+$98.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$210	—	-$210
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 44¢	$380.5	—	-$380.5	30% 598-1368 (1966)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 40.6¢	$218.17	$355.95	+$145.27	44% 650-832 (1482)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$341.33	$237.24	+$83.73	51% 1963-1859 (3822)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.7¢	$103.79	$237.24	+$154.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.7¢	$103.53	—	-$71.1
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 45.9¢	$159.21	$242	+$82.79	45% 692-830 (1522)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 67.3¢	$189.2	$237.37	+$48.17	55% 794-650 (1444)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 49.6¢	$112.93	$206.27	+$93.35	48% 645-690 (1335)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 65.6¢	$128.89	$158.01	+$29.12	45% 614-739 (1353)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 57.5¢	$148.04	$144.83	+$7.15	52% 773-722 (1495)
OhioAI	Downavg 54.9¢	$134.88	$126.6	-$8.27	50% 667-656 (1323)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 81.5¢	$142.63	$110.17	-$28.06	47% 1885-2113 (3998)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Downavg 53¢	$68.16	$101.8	+$33.65	50% 676-685 (1361)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 61.2¢	$74.14	$100	+$25.86	53% 4452-3870 (8322)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,813.23

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$3.13

Record

56%

343-271 (614)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

38%

175-284 (459)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,080.31

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$95.67

Record

50%

1684-1697 (3381)

THG.

Down

Invested

$1,348.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.63

Record

99%

749-7 (756)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$863.95

Value

—

PnL

-$863.95

Record

46%

896-1035 (1931)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$813.98

Value

$846.51

PnL

+$32.53

Record

52%

4780-4466 (9246)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$708.71

Value

$610.5

PnL

-$98.21

Record

49%

1227-1262 (2489)

Both legs:

Down$457.9175¢+$152.59

Up$250.841.3¢-$250.8

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$488.22

Value

$433.58

PnL

-$54.63

Record

45%

957-1147 (2104)

Both legs:

Down$240.1655.4¢+$193.42

Up$248.0526.9¢-$248.05

stepahead

Down

Invested

$468.49

Value

$510.02

PnL

+$41.53

Record

55%

4269-3511 (7780)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$569.19

Value

$494.2

PnL

-$0.36

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

Both legs:

Down$240.6248.7¢+$249.61

Up$263.0950.9¢-$249.97

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$527.16

Value

—

PnL

-$464.36

Record

60%

921-615 (1536)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$328.33

Value

$435.32

PnL

+$109.2

Record

50%

4145-4216 (8361)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$476.86

Value

$365.7

PnL

-$111.16

Record

50%

1236-1242 (2478)

Both legs:

Down$266.8673¢+$98.84

Up$21042¢-$210

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$380.5

Value

—

PnL

-$380.5

Record

30%

598-1368 (1966)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$218.17

Value

$355.95

PnL

+$145.27

Record

44%

650-832 (1482)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$341.33

Value

$237.24

PnL

+$83.73

Record

51%

1963-1859 (3822)

Both legs:

Down$103.7943.7¢+$154.84

Up$103.5330.7¢-$71.1

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$159.21

Value

$242

PnL

+$82.79

Record

45%

692-830 (1522)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$189.2

Value

$237.37

PnL

+$48.17

Record

55%

794-650 (1444)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$112.93

Value

$206.27

PnL

+$93.35

Record

48%

645-690 (1335)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$128.89

Value

$158.01

PnL

+$29.12

Record

45%

614-739 (1353)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$148.04

Value

$144.83

PnL

+$7.15

Record

52%

773-722 (1495)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$134.88

Value

$126.6

PnL

-$8.27

Record

50%

667-656 (1323)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$142.63

Value

$110.17

PnL

-$28.06

Record

47%

1885-2113 (3998)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Down

Invested

$68.16

Value

$101.8

PnL

+$33.65

Record

50%

676-685 (1361)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$74.14

Value

$100

PnL

+$25.86

Record

53%

4452-3870 (8322)

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 55 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x57e24020...e68ab7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794637800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $8.5K

+$3.13

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Up — $0

$-4.8K

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.2K

+$95.67

THG.

Down — $1.4K

+$13.63

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Up — $0

-$863.95

blue.birds

Down — $846.51

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Down — $510.02

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded