Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
44
Up 32%
6 arb excluded
$9.3K
$-14.0K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 44 top traders (32%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-8.1K | 56% 343-271 (614) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 38% 175-284 (459) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$22.68 | 99% 749-7 (756) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $820 | -$33.39 | 51% 3014-2926 (5940) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 73.3¢ | $892.6 | $811.93 | -$80.67 | 55% 4269-3511 (7780) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 59.9¢ | $542.18 | $600.57 | +$78.83 | 46% 896-1035 (1931) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 69¢ | $622.2 | $615.69 | -$6.51 | 52% 4780-4466 (9246) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $492.67 | $498.88 | +$6.21 | 44% 650-832 (1482) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.3¢ | $295.9 | $498.88 | +$202.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.6¢ | $196.77 | — | -$196.77 | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 37.7¢ | $669.92 | — | -$669.92 | 60% 921-615 (1536) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $545.41 | $482.62 | +$6.95 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 72.7¢ | $482.33 | $460.91 | -$21.42 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 65.9¢ | $442.07 | $338.71 | +$18.76 | 51% 1963-1859 (3822) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 84.6¢ | $273.91 | $228.79 | -$45.12 | 53% 763-676 (1439) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 31¢ | $309.72 | — | -$309.72 | 45% 692-830 (1522) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 71.8¢ | $207.72 | $189.93 | -$17.79 | 53% 4452-3870 (8322) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $197.92 | $208.99 | +$11.07 | 50% 687-674 (1361) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $126.76 | $131 | +$4.24 | 51% 4479-4365 (8844) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.5¢ | $56.4 | — | -$56.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.7¢ | $70.36 | $131 | +$60.64 | |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $135.16 | $132.74 | -$2.41 | 26% 412-1190 (1602) |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 44.2¢ | $58.08 | $126.14 | +$73.01 | 38% 1240-2064 (3304) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 52.3¢ | $103.7 | $111.99 | +$15.54 | 39% 663-1045 (1708) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $116.86 | $100.13 | -$16.73 | 50% 667-656 (1323) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $58.31 | — | -$58.31 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.5¢ | $58.55 | $100.13 | +$41.58 | |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $112.23 | $119.99 | +$7.76 | 50% 1236-1242 (2478) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.3¢ | $45.43 | — | -$45.43 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.7¢ | $66.8 | $119.99 | +$53.2 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 83.2¢ | $119.06 | $111.81 | -$7.25 | 55% 794-650 (1444) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 66.3¢ | $99.06 | $94.5 | -$4.56 | 51% 692-675 (1367) |
 ohioismARB<$100 | Upavg 41.2¢ | $94.9 | $85 | -$9.9 | 48% 1860-2039 (3899) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.5¢ | $45.5 | $85 | +$39.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.2¢ | $49.4 | — | -$49.4 |
Invested
$8,599
Value
—
PnL
$-8.1K
Record
56%
343-271 (614)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
38%
175-284 (459)
Invested
$2,245.29
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$22.68
Record
99%
749-7 (756)
Invested
$950
Value
$820
PnL
-$33.39
Record
51%
3014-2926 (5940)
Invested
$892.6
Value
$811.93
PnL
-$80.67
Record
55%
4269-3511 (7780)
Invested
$542.18
Value
$600.57
PnL
+$78.83
Record
46%
896-1035 (1931)
Invested
$622.2
Value
$615.69
PnL
-$6.51
Record
52%
4780-4466 (9246)
Invested
$492.67
Value
$498.88
PnL
+$6.21
Record
44%
650-832 (1482)
Both legs:
Invested
$669.92
Value
—
PnL
-$669.92
Record
60%
921-615 (1536)
Invested
$545.41
Value
$482.62
PnL
+$6.95
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Invested
$482.33
Value
$460.91
PnL
-$21.42
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$442.07
Value
$338.71
PnL
+$18.76
Record
51%
1963-1859 (3822)
Invested
$273.91
Value
$228.79
PnL
-$45.12
Record
53%
763-676 (1439)
Invested
$309.72
Value
—
PnL
-$309.72
Record
45%
692-830 (1522)
FairValueMachineInvested
$207.72
Value
$189.93
PnL
-$17.79
Record
53%
4452-3870 (8322)
Invested
$197.92
Value
$208.99
PnL
+$11.07
Record
50%
687-674 (1361)
Invested
$126.76
Value
$131
PnL
+$4.24
Record
51%
4479-4365 (8844)
Both legs:
NIULAI4Invested
$135.16
Value
$132.74
PnL
-$2.41
Record
26%
412-1190 (1602)
Invested
$58.08
Value
$126.14
PnL
+$73.01
Record
38%
1240-2064 (3304)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$103.7
Value
$111.99
PnL
+$15.54
Record
39%
663-1045 (1708)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$116.86
Value
$100.13
PnL
-$16.73
Record
50%
667-656 (1323)
Both legs:
Invested
$112.23
Value
$119.99
PnL
+$7.76
Record
50%
1236-1242 (2478)
Both legs:
Invested
$119.06
Value
$111.81
PnL
-$7.25
Record
55%
794-650 (1444)
Invested
$99.06
Value
$94.5
PnL
-$4.56
Record
51%
692-675 (1367)
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$94.9
Value
$85
PnL
-$9.9
Record
48%
1860-2039 (3899)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $2.3K
soswald1
Down — $820
stepahead
Down — $811.93
CrouchPredictions
Down — $600.57
blue.birds
Down — $615.69
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $482.62