Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.0K

Combined PnL

$329.65

Smart Money Signal

34 of 50 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up34 traders

Total Value$22.5K

Total Shares22,528

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Down16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,359

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.5K	-$27.29	56% 343-271 (614)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$56.67	38% 175-284 (459)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$32.26	99% 749-7 (756)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$945	-$2.05	51% 3014-2926 (5940)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$472.5	$945	+$472.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 42¢	$361.95	$624.82	+$262.87	46% 896-1035 (1931)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$552.13	$557.71	+$5.58	50% 1684-1697 (3381)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 53.8¢	$589.66	$503.96	-$0.94	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 67¢	$454.05	$406.98	-$47.07	30% 598-1368 (1966)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 81¢	$781.75	$350.91	-$430.84	45% 957-1147 (2104)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.3¢	$295.75	$350.91	+$55.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 81¢	$486	—	-$486
BL blue.birds	Upavg 69.7¢	$415.48	$382.92	-$32.55	52% 4780-4466 (9246)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 50.4¢	$335.58	$327.69	+$12.53	51% 1963-1859 (3822)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 56.5¢	$331.55	—	-$330.05	60% 921-615 (1536)
ST stepahead	Upavg 56.3¢	$279.61	$306.15	+$26.53	55% 4269-3511 (7780)
BO bosona	Upavg 39¢	$136.38	$350.11	+$213.73	51% 4479-4365 (8844)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98¢	$272.1	$277.65	+$5.55	98% 3197-68 (3265)
AL almach	Upavg 17.6¢	$85.13	$484.7	+$399.57	50% 1236-1242 (2478)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 62.4¢	$181.48	$235.17	+$53.69	50% 4145-4216 (8361)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 53.8¢	$215.58	$219.98	+$4.4	53% 763-676 (1439)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 38¢	$197.46	$161.58	-$35.88	44% 650-832 (1482)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.7¢	$77.04	$161.58	+$84.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 38¢	$120.42	—	-$120.42
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 52¢	$118.64	—	-$118.64	52% 773-722 (1495)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 61.2¢	$69.16	$112.99	+$43.83	51% 692-675 (1367)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR	Downavg 60.1¢	$107.23	—	-$107.23	48% 645-690 (1335)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 82¢	$117.92	$82.04	-$35.88	50% 687-674 (1361)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Upavg 70.2¢	$81.62	$74.18	-$7.44	60% 859-580 (1439)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Upavg 87.8¢	$84.74	$79.99	-$4.75	60% 873-594 (1467)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,897

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$27.29

Record

56%

343-271 (614)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$56.67

Record

38%

175-284 (459)

THG.

Invested

$3,193.74

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$32.26

Record

99%

749-7 (756)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$945

PnL

-$2.05

Record

51%

3014-2926 (5940)

Both legs:

Up$472.550¢+$472.95

Down$47550¢-$475

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$361.95

Value

$624.82

PnL

+$262.87

Record

46%

896-1035 (1931)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$552.13

Value

$557.71

PnL

+$5.58

Record

50%

1684-1697 (3381)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$589.66

Value

$503.96

PnL

-$0.94

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

ply-pm0

Invested

$454.05

Value

$406.98

PnL

-$47.07

Record

30%

598-1368 (1966)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$781.75

Value

$350.91

PnL

-$430.84

Record

45%

957-1147 (2104)

Both legs:

Up$295.7584.3¢+$55.16

Down$48681¢-$486

blue.birds

Invested

$415.48

Value

$382.92

PnL

-$32.55

Record

52%

4780-4466 (9246)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$335.58

Value

$327.69

PnL

+$12.53

Record

51%

1963-1859 (3822)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$331.55

Value

—

PnL

-$330.05

Record

60%

921-615 (1536)

stepahead

Invested

$279.61

Value

$306.15

PnL

+$26.53

Record

55%

4269-3511 (7780)

bosona

Invested

$136.38

Value

$350.11

PnL

+$213.73

Record

51%

4479-4365 (8844)

hoodquant

Invested

$272.1

Value

$277.65

PnL

+$5.55

Record

98%

3197-68 (3265)

almach

Invested

$85.13

Value

$484.7

PnL

+$399.57

Record

50%

1236-1242 (2478)

asdcaxz

Invested

$181.48

Value

$235.17

PnL

+$53.69

Record

50%

4145-4216 (8361)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$215.58

Value

$219.98

PnL

+$4.4

Record

53%

763-676 (1439)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$197.46

Value

$161.58

PnL

-$35.88

Record

44%

650-832 (1482)

Both legs:

Up$77.0447.7¢+$84.54

Down$120.4238¢-$120.42

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$118.64

Value

—

PnL

-$118.64

Record

52%

773-722 (1495)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$69.16

Value

$112.99

PnL

+$43.83

Record

51%

692-675 (1367)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR

Down

Invested

$107.23

Value

—

PnL

-$107.23

Record

48%

645-690 (1335)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$117.92

Value

$82.04

PnL

-$35.88

Record

50%

687-674 (1361)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Invested

$81.62

Value

$74.18

PnL

-$7.44

Record

60%

859-580 (1439)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Invested

$84.74

Value

$79.99

PnL

-$4.75

Record

60%

873-594 (1467)

Smart Money Signal

34 of 50 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x002f268a...1638ab

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794637200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.5K

-$27.29

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$56.67

THG.

Up — $3.2K

+$32.26

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.05

CrouchPredictions

Up — $624.82

+$262.87

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $557.71

+$5.58

ByteBadger92

Up — $503.96

-$0.94

ply-pm0

Up — $406.98

-$47.07

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$430.84

blue.birds

Up — $382.92

-$32.55

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