Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Up 73%
4 arb excluded
$19.6K
$-3.8K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 52 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $8.1K | +$13.6 | 56% 343-271 (614) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 38% 175-284 (459) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$32.23 | 99% 749-7 (756) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 72¢ | $978.14 | $974.85 | -$3.29 | 46% 896-1035 (1931) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 57¢ | $720.74 | $858.24 | +$140.08 | 60% 921-615 (1536) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 51.8¢ | $393.06 | $597.29 | +$204.22 | 44% 650-832 (1482) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 66.7¢ | $473.65 | $524.56 | +$50.9 | 55% 4269-3511 (7780) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 70.1¢ | $460.41 | $499.32 | +$38.92 | 52% 4780-4466 (9246) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.3¢ | $542.03 | — | -$500.04 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 94.7¢ | $433.58 | $457.82 | +$24.24 | 26% 412-1190 (1602) |
BO bosona | Upavg 42.6¢ | $202.49 | $455.9 | +$253.41 | 51% 4479-4365 (8844) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97¢ | $435.65 | $449 | +$13.35 | 98% 3197-68 (3265) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 68.5¢ | $345.41 | $336.75 | -$8.66 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 57.8¢ | $194.74 | $323.45 | +$128.72 | 49% 1227-1262 (2489) |
AL almach | Upavg 27¢ | $82.51 | $294.68 | +$212.17 | 50% 1236-1242 (2478) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 65.6¢ | $297.92 | $267.48 | -$30.43 | 30% 598-1368 (1966) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 53.2¢ | $215.54 | $242.4 | +$26.86 | 45% 692-830 (1522) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 61.4¢ | $177.21 | $155.81 | -$21.4 | 53% 4452-3870 (8322) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.4¢ | $95.61 | $155.81 | +$60.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.1¢ | $81.59 | — | -$81.59 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 86.9¢ | $195.89 | $147.97 | -$47.92 | 45% 957-1147 (2104) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 67.9¢ | $99.54 | $142.93 | +$43.39 | 48% 645-690 (1335) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 81.2¢ | $166.67 | $122.64 | -$44.03 | 53% 763-676 (1439) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 74.6¢ | $120.6 | $113 | -$7.6 | 51% 692-675 (1367) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 74¢ | $108.7 | $113 | +$4.3 | 51% 679-664 (1343) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 45.5¢ | $90.99 | $199.98 | +$108.99 | 50% 689-693 (1382) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 54.6¢ | $55.48 | $91.64 | +$36.16 | 55% 794-650 (1444) |
Invested
$8,577
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$13.6
Record
56%
343-271 (614)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
38%
175-284 (459)
Invested
$3,190.77
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$32.23
Record
99%
749-7 (756)
Invested
$978.14
Value
$974.85
PnL
-$3.29
Record
46%
896-1035 (1931)
Invested
$720.74
Value
$858.24
PnL
+$140.08
Record
60%
921-615 (1536)
Invested
$393.06
Value
$597.29
PnL
+$204.22
Record
44%
650-832 (1482)
Invested
$473.65
Value
$524.56
PnL
+$50.9
Record
55%
4269-3511 (7780)
Invested
$460.41
Value
$499.32
PnL
+$38.92
Record
52%
4780-4466 (9246)
Invested
$542.03
Value
—
PnL
-$500.04
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
NIULAI4Invested
$433.58
Value
$457.82
PnL
+$24.24
Record
26%
412-1190 (1602)
Invested
$202.49
Value
$455.9
PnL
+$253.41
Record
51%
4479-4365 (8844)
Invested
$435.65
Value
$449
PnL
+$13.35
Record
98%
3197-68 (3265)
Invested
$345.41
Value
$336.75
PnL
-$8.66
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
Invested
$194.74
Value
$323.45
PnL
+$128.72
Record
49%
1227-1262 (2489)
Invested
$82.51
Value
$294.68
PnL
+$212.17
Record
50%
1236-1242 (2478)
Invested
$297.92
Value
$267.48
PnL
-$30.43
Record
30%
598-1368 (1966)
Invested
$215.54
Value
$242.4
PnL
+$26.86
Record
45%
692-830 (1522)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$177.21
Value
$155.81
PnL
-$21.4
Record
53%
4452-3870 (8322)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$195.89
Value
$147.97
PnL
-$47.92
Record
45%
957-1147 (2104)
Invested
$99.54
Value
$142.93
PnL
+$43.39
Record
48%
645-690 (1335)
Invested
$166.67
Value
$122.64
PnL
-$44.03
Record
53%
763-676 (1439)
Invested
$120.6
Value
$113
PnL
-$7.6
Record
51%
692-675 (1367)
Invested
$108.7
Value
$113
PnL
+$4.3
Record
51%
679-664 (1343)
Invested
$90.99
Value
$199.98
PnL
+$108.99
Record
50%
689-693 (1382)
Invested
$55.48
Value
$91.64
PnL
+$36.16
Record
55%
794-650 (1444)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.2K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $974.85
Bonereaper
Up — $858.24
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $597.29
stepahead
Up — $524.56
blue.birds
Up — $499.32
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $457.82