Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Up 66%
3 arb excluded
$8.5K
$-5.5K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 48 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 38% 175-284 (459) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$12.89 | 99% 749-7 (756) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $910 | +$11.29 | 51% 3014-2926 (5940) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 64.7¢ | $730.94 | $698.27 | -$30.03 | 55% 4269-3511 (7780) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 59¢ | $654.69 | $662.57 | +$7.88 | 30% 598-1368 (1966) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 70.6¢ | $523.96 | $566.56 | +$42.6 | 52% 4780-4466 (9246) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 37.5¢ | $385.47 | $524.9 | +$139.44 | 46% 896-1035 (1931) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.7¢ | $540.74 | — | -$496.98 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 48.5¢ | $350.51 | $423.05 | +$72.54 | 60% 921-615 (1536) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 67.2¢ | $458.02 | $424.82 | -$33.2 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 36.4¢ | $387.05 | — | -$387.05 | 44% 650-832 (1482) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 53.6¢ | $251.15 | $283.15 | +$32 | 45% 692-830 (1522) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 45.1¢ | $430.74 | $269.17 | +$74.21 | 51% 1963-1859 (3822) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.2¢ | $108.22 | $269.17 | +$182.46 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.1¢ | $122.88 | — | -$108.25 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 50.7¢ | $110.75 | $199.99 | +$89.24 | 39% 663-1045 (1708) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 72.6¢ | $184.7 | $168.28 | -$16.42 | 56% 343-271 (614) |
BO bosona | Upavg 51.6¢ | $189.99 | $368.21 | +$178.22 | 51% 4479-4365 (8844) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 63.1¢ | $111.07 | $175.99 | +$64.92 | 50% 687-674 (1361) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100 | Upavg 42.8¢ | $116.9 | $149 | +$32.1 | 50% 676-685 (1361) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.8¢ | $63.75 | $149 | +$85.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.1¢ | $53.15 | — | -$53.15 | |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 65.6¢ | $114.69 | $139.99 | +$25.29 | 53% 4452-3870 (8322) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 70.6¢ | $106.26 | $139.45 | +$33.19 | 53% 763-676 (1439) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 59.6¢ | $131.24 | $118.01 | -$13.23 | 55% 794-650 (1444) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 51.1¢ | $116.33 | — | -$116.33 | 50% 1684-1697 (3381) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 76.7¢ | $133.29 | $119.99 | -$13.3 | 49% 1227-1262 (2489) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $97.87 | $90.96 | -$6.92 | 51% 679-664 (1343) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $50.91 | $90.96 | +$40.04 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.3¢ | $46.96 | — | -$46.96 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100 | Upavg 39.1¢ | $51.89 | $79.53 | +$27.64 | 48% 645-690 (1335) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
38%
175-284 (459)
Invested
$1,276.04
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.89
Record
99%
749-7 (756)
Invested
$950
Value
$910
PnL
+$11.29
Record
51%
3014-2926 (5940)
Invested
$730.94
Value
$698.27
PnL
-$30.03
Record
55%
4269-3511 (7780)
Invested
$654.69
Value
$662.57
PnL
+$7.88
Record
30%
598-1368 (1966)
Invested
$523.96
Value
$566.56
PnL
+$42.6
Record
52%
4780-4466 (9246)
Invested
$385.47
Value
$524.9
PnL
+$139.44
Record
46%
896-1035 (1931)
Invested
$540.74
Value
—
PnL
-$496.98
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Invested
$350.51
Value
$423.05
PnL
+$72.54
Record
60%
921-615 (1536)
Invested
$458.02
Value
$424.82
PnL
-$33.2
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
Invested
$387.05
Value
—
PnL
-$387.05
Record
44%
650-832 (1482)
Invested
$251.15
Value
$283.15
PnL
+$32
Record
45%
692-830 (1522)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$430.74
Value
$269.17
PnL
+$74.21
Record
51%
1963-1859 (3822)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$110.75
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$89.24
Record
39%
663-1045 (1708)
Invested
$184.7
Value
$168.28
PnL
-$16.42
Record
56%
343-271 (614)
Invested
$189.99
Value
$368.21
PnL
+$178.22
Record
51%
4479-4365 (8844)
Invested
$111.07
Value
$175.99
PnL
+$64.92
Record
50%
687-674 (1361)
Invested
$116.9
Value
$149
PnL
+$32.1
Record
50%
676-685 (1361)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$114.69
Value
$139.99
PnL
+$25.29
Record
53%
4452-3870 (8322)
Invested
$106.26
Value
$139.45
PnL
+$33.19
Record
53%
763-676 (1439)
Invested
$131.24
Value
$118.01
PnL
-$13.23
Record
55%
794-650 (1444)
Invested
$116.33
Value
—
PnL
-$116.33
Record
50%
1684-1697 (3381)
Invested
$133.29
Value
$119.99
PnL
-$13.3
Record
49%
1227-1262 (2489)
Invested
$97.87
Value
$90.96
PnL
-$6.92
Record
51%
679-664 (1343)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.89
Value
$79.53
PnL
+$27.64
Record
48%
645-690 (1335)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $1.3K
soswald1
Up — $910
stepahead
Up — $698.27
ply-pm0
Up — $662.57
blue.birds
Up — $566.56
CrouchPredictions
Up — $524.9
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $423.05
asdcaxz
Up — $424.82