Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$586.37

Smart Money Signal

36 of 47 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up36 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares16,438

Combined PnL+$805.91

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares635

Combined PnL-$219.54

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$17.26	38% 175-284 (459)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$32.18	99% 749-7 (756)
MO mo-money	Upavg 85.2¢	$979.17	$1.1K	+$170	49% 1227-1262 (2489)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$930	+$0.1	51% 3014-2926 (5940)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 65¢	$447.38	$526.75	+$99.61	60% 921-615 (1536)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 52.4¢	$568.25	$499.05	+$5.48	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 81.3¢	$494.63	$428.68	-$65.95	46% 896-1035 (1931)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$420.75	$425	+$4.25	98% 3197-68 (3265)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 68.8¢	$436.01	$393.19	-$42.83	44% 650-832 (1482)
BO bosona	Upavg 79.6¢	$423.22	$531.98	+$108.75	51% 4479-4365 (8844)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 70¢	$501.37	$379.41	+$1.66	51% 1963-1859 (3822)
machinelearned	Upavg 49¢	$233.64	$459.49	+$225.86	45% 957-1147 (2104)
ST stepahead	Upavg 72.4¢	$286.21	$346.65	+$60.44	55% 4269-3511 (7780)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 78.7¢	$348.34	$327.79	-$20.55	52% 4780-4466 (9246)
AL almach	Upavg 84.5¢	$367.42	$434.74	+$67.32	50% 1236-1242 (2478)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 57¢	$227.29	$239	+$11.71	51% 692-675 (1367)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 76.4¢	$192.08	$176	-$16.08	45% 692-830 (1522)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.4¢	$134.51	$176	+$41.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.6¢	$57.57	—	-$57.57
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Upavg 81.9¢	$131.94	$161.19	+$29.25	50% 676-685 (1361)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 81.2¢	$137.85	$131.35	-$6.5	30% 598-1368 (1966)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 52.8¢	$71.04	$112.72	+$41.69	53% 763-676 (1439)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Upavg 76.4¢	$83.78	$84.93	+$1.15	60% 859-580 (1439)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 87.4¢	$111.92	$80.22	-$28.46	50% 4145-4216 (8361)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100	Upavg 71.8¢	$70.04	$89.38	+$19.34	45% 614-739 (1353)
PA Papeasy<$100	Upavg 45¢	$40.97	$75	+$34.03	50% 3752-3707 (7459)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 85.5¢	$65.13	$66.74	+$1.62	52% 754-710 (1464)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$17.26

Record

38%

175-284 (459)

THG.

Invested

$3,185.82

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$32.18

Record

99%

749-7 (756)

mo-money

Invested

$979.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$170

Record

49%

1227-1262 (2489)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$930

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

3014-2926 (5940)

Bonereaper

Invested

$447.38

Value

$526.75

PnL

+$99.61

Record

60%

921-615 (1536)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$568.25

Value

$499.05

PnL

+$5.48

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$494.63

Value

$428.68

PnL

-$65.95

Record

46%

896-1035 (1931)

hoodquant

Invested

$420.75

Value

$425

PnL

+$4.25

Record

98%

3197-68 (3265)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$436.01

Value

$393.19

PnL

-$42.83

Record

44%

650-832 (1482)

bosona

Invested

$423.22

Value

$531.98

PnL

+$108.75

Record

51%

4479-4365 (8844)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$501.37

Value

$379.41

PnL

+$1.66

Record

51%

1963-1859 (3822)

machinelearned

Invested

$233.64

Value

$459.49

PnL

+$225.86

Record

45%

957-1147 (2104)

stepahead

Invested

$286.21

Value

$346.65

PnL

+$60.44

Record

55%

4269-3511 (7780)

blue.birds

Invested

$348.34

Value

$327.79

PnL

-$20.55

Record

52%

4780-4466 (9246)

almach

Invested

$367.42

Value

$434.74

PnL

+$67.32

Record

50%

1236-1242 (2478)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$227.29

Value

$239

PnL

+$11.71

Record

51%

692-675 (1367)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$192.08

Value

$176

PnL

-$16.08

Record

45%

692-830 (1522)

Both legs:

Up$134.5176.4¢+$41.49

Down$57.5719.6¢-$57.57

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Invested

$131.94

Value

$161.19

PnL

+$29.25

Record

50%

676-685 (1361)

ply-pm0

Invested

$137.85

Value

$131.35

PnL

-$6.5

Record

30%

598-1368 (1966)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$71.04

Value

$112.72

PnL

+$41.69

Record

53%

763-676 (1439)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Invested

$83.78

Value

$84.93

PnL

+$1.15

Record

60%

859-580 (1439)

asdcaxz

Invested

$111.92

Value

$80.22

PnL

-$28.46

Record

50%

4145-4216 (8361)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100

Invested

$70.04

Value

$89.38

PnL

+$19.34

Record

45%

614-739 (1353)

Papeasy<$100

Invested

$40.97

Value

$75

PnL

+$34.03

Record

50%

3752-3707 (7459)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$65.13

Value

$66.74

PnL

+$1.62

Record

52%

754-710 (1464)

Smart Money Signal

36 of 47 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2c8c0dc3...bf29b1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794636300

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$17.26

THG.

Up — $3.2K

+$32.18

mo-money

Up — $1.1K

+$170

soswald1

Up — $930

+$0.1

Bonereaper

Up — $526.75

+$99.61

ByteBadger92

Up — $499.05

+$5.48

CrouchPredictions

Up — $428.68

-$65.95

hoodquant

Up — $425

+$4.25

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $393.19

-$42.83

bosona

Up — $531.98

+$108.75

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