Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
61
Up 71%
1 arb excluded
$11.3K
$-17.3K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 61 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed44 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.8K | -$190.78 | 56% 343-271 (614) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.2K | 38% 175-284 (459) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 66.3¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 44% 650-832 (1482) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 33.2¢ | $655.88 | — | -$652.08 | 46% 896-1035 (1931) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 80.4¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 55% 4269-3511 (7780) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 37.1¢ | $745.2 | — | -$635.24 | 30% 598-1368 (1966) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 74.9¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 52% 4780-4466 (9246) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $513.61 | $991.41 | +$477.8 | 50% 1684-1697 (3381) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 66.2¢ | $525.11 | — | -$525.11 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 63.7¢ | $523.39 | — | -$523.39 | 45% 692-830 (1522) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 80.7¢ | $506.83 | — | -$506.83 | 50% 1236-1242 (2478) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $459.21 | $570.88 | +$111.67 | 51% 692-675 (1367) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Upavg 84.9¢ | $604.16 | — | -$604.16 | 48% 645-690 (1335) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 33.9¢ | $371.62 | $565.17 | +$193.55 | 53% 4452-3870 (8322) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 53.6¢ | $622.61 | — | -$615.91 | 60% 921-615 (1536) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 86.5¢ | $526.43 | — | -$526.43 | 49% 1227-1262 (2489) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 52.1¢ | $565.25 | — | -$455.01 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 80.8¢ | $470.18 | — | -$470.18 | 51% 1963-1859 (3822) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Upavg 82.3¢ | $679.93 | — | -$679.93 | 53% 763-676 (1439) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Upavg 73.4¢ | $527.94 | — | -$527.94 | 55% 794-650 (1444) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 79.3¢ | $435.4 | — | -$435.4 | 51% 2841-2744 (5585) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $305.45 | $425.36 | +$119.92 | 50% 691-685 (1376) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR | Upavg 79.6¢ | $203.43 | — | -$203.43 | 45% 614-739 (1353) |
 NIULAI4CTR | Upavg 58¢ | $529.19 | — | -$529.19 | 26% 412-1190 (1602) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 18.1¢ | $155.88 | — | -$155.88 | 45% 957-1147 (2104) |
Invested
$8,844.8
Value
$7.8K
PnL
-$190.78
Record
56%
343-271 (614)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
38%
175-284 (459)
Invested
$1,106.78
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
44%
650-832 (1482)
Invested
$655.88
Value
—
PnL
-$652.08
Record
46%
896-1035 (1931)
Invested
$1,200.36
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
55%
4269-3511 (7780)
Invested
$745.2
Value
—
PnL
-$635.24
Record
30%
598-1368 (1966)
Invested
$1,032.51
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
52%
4780-4466 (9246)
Invested
$513.61
Value
$991.41
PnL
+$477.8
Record
50%
1684-1697 (3381)
Invested
$525.11
Value
—
PnL
-$525.11
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
Invested
$523.39
Value
—
PnL
-$523.39
Record
45%
692-830 (1522)
Invested
$506.83
Value
—
PnL
-$506.83
Record
50%
1236-1242 (2478)
Invested
$459.21
Value
$570.88
PnL
+$111.67
Record
51%
692-675 (1367)
Invested
$604.16
Value
—
PnL
-$604.16
Record
48%
645-690 (1335)
FairValueMachineInvested
$371.62
Value
$565.17
PnL
+$193.55
Record
53%
4452-3870 (8322)
Invested
$622.61
Value
—
PnL
-$615.91
Record
60%
921-615 (1536)
Invested
$526.43
Value
—
PnL
-$526.43
Record
49%
1227-1262 (2489)
Invested
$565.25
Value
—
PnL
-$455.01
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$470.18
Value
—
PnL
-$470.18
Record
51%
1963-1859 (3822)
Invested
$679.93
Value
—
PnL
-$679.93
Record
53%
763-676 (1439)
Invested
$527.94
Value
—
PnL
-$527.94
Record
55%
794-650 (1444)
Invested
$435.4
Value
—
PnL
-$435.4
Record
51%
2841-2744 (5585)
Invested
$305.45
Value
$425.36
PnL
+$119.92
Record
50%
691-685 (1376)
Invested
$203.43
Value
—
PnL
-$203.43
Record
45%
614-739 (1353)
NIULAI4CTRInvested
$529.19
Value
—
PnL
-$529.19
Record
26%
412-1190 (1602)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$155.88
Value
—
PnL
-$155.88
Record
45%
957-1147 (2104)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.8K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $991.41
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0