Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
50
Down 41%
6 arb excluded
$9.8K
$-13.7K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 50 top traders (42%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.8K | 56% 343-271 (614) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 38% 175-284 (459) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$31.83 | 99% 749-7 (756) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $894.48 | -$7.89 | 51% 3014-2926 (5940) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $447.24 | $894.48 | +$439.24 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $439.05 | — | -$447.14 | |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 51.3¢ | $619.56 | — | -$619.56 | 52% 4780-4466 (9246) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 46.6¢ | $414.71 | $607.93 | +$205.49 | 44% 650-832 (1482) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 56¢ | $533.36 | $530.94 | +$18.24 | 60% 921-615 (1536) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 29.3¢ | $408.41 | $437.17 | +$28.76 | 46% 896-1035 (1931) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.1¢ | $157.67 | $437.17 | +$279.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.3¢ | $250.74 | — | -$250.74 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $552.09 | $491.04 | +$2.04 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $243.54 | $491.04 | +$251.73 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.3¢ | $251.65 | — | -$249.7 | |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 53.4¢ | $407.98 | — | -$405.82 | 50% 4145-4216 (8361) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 52.8¢ | $340.56 | $347.05 | +$6.49 | 55% 4269-3511 (7780) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 44.7¢ | $273.45 | $342.83 | +$69.38 | 45% 692-830 (1522) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 56.2¢ | $215.86 | $277.45 | +$85.58 | 53% 4452-3870 (8322) |
BO bosona | Upavg 51.7¢ | $308.81 | $597.38 | +$288.58 | 51% 4479-4365 (8844) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 83.3¢ | $249.27 | $235.28 | -$13.99 | 53% 763-676 (1439) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 51.5¢ | $227.22 | — | -$227.22 | 51% 2841-2744 (5585) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 50.6¢ | $239.06 | — | -$239.06 | 55% 794-650 (1444) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 56.9¢ | $160.4 | $200 | +$39.6 | 51% 1963-1859 (3822) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 34.5¢ | $226.24 | — | -$173.34 | 30% 598-1368 (1966) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 47.3¢ | $122.3 | $177.89 | +$55.6 | 45% 957-1147 (2104) |
 ohioism | Upavg 46.5¢ | $96.23 | $142.63 | +$46.39 | 48% 1860-2039 (3899) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 65.5¢ | $108.59 | $120 | +$11.41 | 59% 854-599 (1453) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $106.55 | $122.35 | +$15.8 | 50% 687-674 (1361) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.4¢ | $45.01 | — | -$45.01 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.3¢ | $61.54 | $122.35 | +$60.81 | |
 OhioAI | Upavg 60¢ | $115.23 | $108 | -$2.31 | 50% 667-656 (1323) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 56.1¢ | $77.28 | $104.27 | +$26.99 | 60% 859-580 (1439) |
Invested
$8,663
Value
—
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
56%
343-271 (614)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
38%
175-284 (459)
Invested
$3,150.91
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$31.83
Record
99%
749-7 (756)
Invested
$950
Value
$894.48
PnL
-$7.89
Record
51%
3014-2926 (5940)
Both legs:
Invested
$619.56
Value
—
PnL
-$619.56
Record
52%
4780-4466 (9246)
Invested
$414.71
Value
$607.93
PnL
+$205.49
Record
44%
650-832 (1482)
Invested
$533.36
Value
$530.94
PnL
+$18.24
Record
60%
921-615 (1536)
Invested
$408.41
Value
$437.17
PnL
+$28.76
Record
46%
896-1035 (1931)
Both legs:
Invested
$552.09
Value
$491.04
PnL
+$2.04
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
Both legs:
Invested
$407.98
Value
—
PnL
-$405.82
Record
50%
4145-4216 (8361)
Invested
$340.56
Value
$347.05
PnL
+$6.49
Record
55%
4269-3511 (7780)
Invested
$273.45
Value
$342.83
PnL
+$69.38
Record
45%
692-830 (1522)
FairValueMachineInvested
$215.86
Value
$277.45
PnL
+$85.58
Record
53%
4452-3870 (8322)
Invested
$308.81
Value
$597.38
PnL
+$288.58
Record
51%
4479-4365 (8844)
Invested
$249.27
Value
$235.28
PnL
-$13.99
Record
53%
763-676 (1439)
Invested
$227.22
Value
—
PnL
-$227.22
Record
51%
2841-2744 (5585)
Invested
$239.06
Value
—
PnL
-$239.06
Record
55%
794-650 (1444)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$160.4
Value
$200
PnL
+$39.6
Record
51%
1963-1859 (3822)
Invested
$226.24
Value
—
PnL
-$173.34
Record
30%
598-1368 (1966)
machinelearnedInvested
$122.3
Value
$177.89
PnL
+$55.6
Record
45%
957-1147 (2104)
ohioismInvested
$96.23
Value
$142.63
PnL
+$46.39
Record
48%
1860-2039 (3899)
Invested
$108.59
Value
$120
PnL
+$11.41
Record
59%
854-599 (1453)
Invested
$106.55
Value
$122.35
PnL
+$15.8
Record
50%
687-674 (1361)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$115.23
Value
$108
PnL
-$2.31
Record
50%
667-656 (1323)
Invested
$77.28
Value
$104.27
PnL
+$26.99
Record
60%
859-580 (1439)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.2K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $607.93
Bonereaper
Up — $530.94
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
CTRDown — $0