Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

19 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.3K

Combined PnL

$337.15

Smart Money Signal

24 of 36 top traders (67%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,311

Combined PnL+$481.13

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares430

Combined PnL-$143.98

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.5K	$8.1K	+$18.72	56% 343-271 (614)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.1K	$8.1K	+$4.2K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-4.1K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$88.34	38% 175-284 (459)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.2K	$4.5K	+$2.4K
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$33.6	98% 3197-68 (3265)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$10.55	51% 3014-2926 (5940)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$460	—	-$464.45
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 68.9¢	$442.37	$505.75	+$66.68	60% 921-615 (1536)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 53¢	$551.91	$500	-$6.37	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.6¢	$247.97	—	-$251.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$264.86	$500	+$245.5
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 74.5¢	$449.59	$491.31	+$41.72	44% 650-832 (1482)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.5¢	$365.79	$491.31	+$125.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$83.79	—	-$83.79
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 37.6¢	$380.71	$249.47	-$131.24	46% 896-1035 (1931)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.6¢	$194.24	—	-$194.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.7¢	$186.47	$249.47	+$63
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 61.2¢	$394.29	$438.45	+$44.17	51% 1963-1859 (3822)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.2¢	$268.3	$438.45	+$170.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.5¢	$125.99	—	-$125.99
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 77.9¢	$370.13	$344.32	-$25.81	52% 4780-4466 (9246)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.5¢	$101.92	—	-$101.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.9¢	$268.21	$344.32	+$76.11
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 67.5¢	$307.27	$271.28	-$35.99	55% 4269-3511 (7780)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35¢	$124.26	—	-$124.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.5¢	$183.01	$271.28	+$88.27
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$229.92	$237.87	+$7.95	51% 2841-2744 (5585)
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.9¢	$63.56	—	-$63.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.9¢	$166.36	$237.87	+$71.51
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 52.6¢	$265.05	$503.82	+$238.78	50% 1684-1697 (3381)
AL almach	Upavg 94.7¢	$426.05	$441.07	+$15.02	50% 1236-1242 (2478)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 76.2¢	$201.69	$230.13	+$33.44	50% 4145-4216 (8361)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 88.9¢	$148.52	$129.77	-$15.64	55% 794-650 (1444)
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.9¢	$28.67	—	-$28.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 88.9¢	$115.4	$129.77	+$13.03
BO bosona	Upavg 72.8¢	$226.38	$302.1	+$75.72	51% 4479-4365 (8844)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 60.4¢	$137.33	$120.45	-$16.88	51% 679-664 (1343)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.5¢	$64.59	—	-$64.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.4¢	$72.74	$120.45	+$47.72
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 70.4¢	$160.91	$166.69	+$5.77	53% 763-676 (1439)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.4¢	$117.31	$166.69	+$49.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 31¢	$43.61	—	-$43.61
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Upavg 97.4¢	$154.75	$154	-$0.75	38% 1254-2047 (3301)
└ Up leg	Upavg 97.4¢	$150.04	$154	+$3.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 3.3¢	$4.71	—	-$4.71
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 69.6¢	$106.95	$122.91	+$21.96	52% 773-722 (1495)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 80.2¢	$154.2	$105.7	-$46.4	45% 692-830 (1522)
MO mo-money	Upavg 78.2¢	$134.78	$163.42	+$28.64	49% 1227-1262 (2489)
OhioAI	Upavg 66.2¢	$110.92	$73.64	-$18.92	50% 667-656 (1323)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$87.07	$100	+$12.93	60% 873-594 (1467)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.4¢	$75.4	$100	+$24.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.4¢	$11.67	—	-$11.67

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,533

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$18.72

Record

56%

343-271 (614)

Both legs:

Up$4,052.0550¢+$4.2K

Down$4,003.2850¢$-4.1K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$88.34

Record

38%

175-284 (459)

Both legs:

Down$2,50050¢$-2.5K

Up$2,232.3450¢+$2.4K

hoodquant

Invested

$1,436.4

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$33.6

Record

98%

3197-68 (3265)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$10.55

Record

51%

3014-2926 (5940)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢+$475

Down$46050¢-$464.45

Bonereaper

Invested

$442.37

Value

$505.75

PnL

+$66.68

Record

60%

921-615 (1536)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$551.91

Value

$500

PnL

-$6.37

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

Both legs:

Down$247.9748.6¢-$251.87

Up$264.8653¢+$245.5

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$449.59

Value

$491.31

PnL

+$41.72

Record

44%

650-832 (1482)

Both legs:

Up$365.7974.5¢+$125.52

Down$83.7929¢-$83.79

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$380.71

Value

$249.47

PnL

-$131.24

Record

46%

896-1035 (1931)

Both legs:

Down$194.2437.6¢-$194.24

Up$186.4774.7¢+$63

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$394.29

Value

$438.45

PnL

+$44.17

Record

51%

1963-1859 (3822)

Both legs:

Up$268.361.2¢+$170.15

Down$125.9942.5¢-$125.99

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$370.13

Value

$344.32

PnL

-$25.81

Record

52%

4780-4466 (9246)

Both legs:

Down$101.9228.5¢-$101.92

Up$268.2177.9¢+$76.11

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$307.27

Value

$271.28

PnL

-$35.99

Record

55%

4269-3511 (7780)

Both legs:

Down$124.2635¢-$124.26

Up$183.0167.5¢+$88.27

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$229.92

Value

$237.87

PnL

+$7.95

Record

51%

2841-2744 (5585)

Both legs:

Down$63.5618.9¢-$63.56

Up$166.3669.9¢+$71.51

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$265.05

Value

$503.82

PnL

+$238.78

Record

50%

1684-1697 (3381)

almach

Invested

$426.05

Value

$441.07

PnL

+$15.02

Record

50%

1236-1242 (2478)

asdcaxz

Invested

$201.69

Value

$230.13

PnL

+$33.44

Record

50%

4145-4216 (8361)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$148.52

Value

$129.77

PnL

-$15.64

Record

55%

794-650 (1444)

Both legs:

Down$28.6714.9¢-$28.67

Up$115.488.9¢+$13.03

bosona

Invested

$226.38

Value

$302.1

PnL

+$75.72

Record

51%

4479-4365 (8844)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$137.33

Value

$120.45

PnL

-$16.88

Record

51%

679-664 (1343)

Both legs:

Down$64.5933.5¢-$64.59

Up$72.7460.4¢+$47.72

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$160.91

Value

$166.69

PnL

+$5.77

Record

53%

763-676 (1439)

Both legs:

Up$117.3170.4¢+$49.38

Down$43.6131¢-$43.61

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Invested

$154.75

Value

$154

PnL

-$0.75

Record

38%

1254-2047 (3301)

Both legs:

Up$150.0497.4¢+$3.96

Down$4.713.3¢-$4.71

wzbbb

Invested

$106.95

Value

$122.91

PnL

+$21.96

Record

52%

773-722 (1495)

GoodFallen

Invested

$154.2

Value

$105.7

PnL

-$46.4

Record

45%

692-830 (1522)

mo-money

Invested

$134.78

Value

$163.42

PnL

+$28.64

Record

49%

1227-1262 (2489)

OhioAI

Invested

$110.92

Value

$73.64

PnL

-$18.92

Record

50%

667-656 (1323)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$87.07

Value

$100

PnL

+$12.93

Record

60%

873-594 (1467)

Both legs:

Up$75.475.4¢+$24.6

Down$11.6727.4¢-$11.67

Smart Money Signal

24 of 36 top traders (67%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd15bcab7...e12ea0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794635100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $1.5K

+$33.6

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$10.55

Bonereaper

Up — $505.75

+$66.68

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$6.37

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded