Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 10 of 50 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
10 of 50 top Polymarket traders hold Up (20%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Up
50
Up 20%
2 arb excluded
$21.4K
$148.76
47.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
AvoidUp at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 50 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | $8.1K | -$24.36 | 56% 340-269 (609) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.2K | -$34.7 | 39% 172-274 (446) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$23.07 | 99% 746-7 (753) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 96.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$38.12 | 98% 3154-65 (3219) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 76.9¢ | $721.95 | $858.07 | +$136.12 | 46% 889-1025 (1914) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $544.12 | $498.66 | +$3.06 | 55% 3061-2517 (5578) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 72.2¢ | $378.01 | $367.22 | -$10.78 | 44% 644-825 (1469) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 62¢ | $231.02 | $333.24 | +$104.62 | 60% 914-608 (1522) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 69.6¢ | $241.56 | $282.36 | +$40.8 | 55% 4261-3501 (7762) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 38.5¢ | $709.32 | $267.4 | -$441.92 | 50% 1678-1678 (3356) |
AL almach | Downavg 66.5¢ | $179.05 | $258.64 | +$79.59 | 50% 1226-1225 (2451) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 75.2¢ | $194.33 | $235.93 | +$41.6 | 52% 4757-4448 (9205) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 77.7¢ | $298.25 | $219.5 | -$28.7 | 51% 1947-1837 (3784) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 61.4¢ | $232.92 | $212.2 | -$5.19 | 45% 685-824 (1509) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $198.71 | $207.71 | +$9 | 30% 594-1359 (1953) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 79.2¢ | $191.08 | $203.75 | +$26.11 | 50% 4118-4199 (8317) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 88¢ | $118.62 | $125.9 | +$7.27 | 55% 786-645 (1431) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $67.78 | $109.82 | +$42.05 | 46% 953-1139 (2092) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45¢ | $34.49 | $72.42 | +$37.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 4.9¢ | $33.29 | $37.4 | +$4.11 | |
SP spartacray | Downavg 80.6¢ | $97.55 | $108.76 | +$11.21 | 59% 848-593 (1441) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 66.2¢ | $66.2 | $96.5 | +$30.3 | 39% 657-1040 (1697) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 78.2¢ | $90.36 | $92.76 | +$2.4 | 53% 758-669 (1427) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 93.3¢ | $91.41 | $91.14 | -$0.27 | 51% 747-704 (1451) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 78.9¢ | $68.36 | $81.65 | +$13.29 | 60% 869-585 (1454) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 54.8¢ | $44.47 | $81.16 | +$36.68 | 38% 1231-2043 (3274) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Downavg 42.5¢ | $68.85 | $74.49 | +$5.64 | 46% 611-730 (1341) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.5¢ | $38.85 | $53.99 | +$15.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60¢ | $30 | $20.5 | -$9.5 |
Invested
$8,966
Value
$8.1K
PnL
-$24.36
Record
56%
340-269 (609)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$34.7
Record
39%
172-274 (446)
Invested
$2,404.52
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$23.07
Record
99%
746-7 (753)
Invested
$1,038.47
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$38.12
Record
98%
3154-65 (3219)
Invested
$721.95
Value
$858.07
PnL
+$136.12
Record
46%
889-1025 (1914)
Invested
$544.12
Value
$498.66
PnL
+$3.06
Record
55%
3061-2517 (5578)
Invested
$378.01
Value
$367.22
PnL
-$10.78
Record
44%
644-825 (1469)
Invested
$231.02
Value
$333.24
PnL
+$104.62
Record
60%
914-608 (1522)
Invested
$241.56
Value
$282.36
PnL
+$40.8
Record
55%
4261-3501 (7762)
Invested
$709.32
Value
$267.4
PnL
-$441.92
Record
50%
1678-1678 (3356)
Invested
$179.05
Value
$258.64
PnL
+$79.59
Record
50%
1226-1225 (2451)
Invested
$194.33
Value
$235.93
PnL
+$41.6
Record
52%
4757-4448 (9205)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$298.25
Value
$219.5
PnL
-$28.7
Record
51%
1947-1837 (3784)
Invested
$232.92
Value
$212.2
PnL
-$5.19
Record
45%
685-824 (1509)
Invested
$198.71
Value
$207.71
PnL
+$9
Record
30%
594-1359 (1953)
Invested
$191.08
Value
$203.75
PnL
+$26.11
Record
50%
4118-4199 (8317)
Invested
$118.62
Value
$125.9
PnL
+$7.27
Record
55%
786-645 (1431)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$67.78
Value
$109.82
PnL
+$42.05
Record
46%
953-1139 (2092)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.55
Value
$108.76
PnL
+$11.21
Record
59%
848-593 (1441)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$66.2
Value
$96.5
PnL
+$30.3
Record
39%
657-1040 (1697)
Invested
$90.36
Value
$92.76
PnL
+$2.4
Record
53%
758-669 (1427)
Invested
$91.41
Value
$91.14
PnL
-$0.27
Record
51%
747-704 (1451)
Invested
$68.36
Value
$81.65
PnL
+$13.29
Record
60%
869-585 (1454)
Invested
$44.47
Value
$81.16
PnL
+$36.68
Record
38%
1231-2043 (3274)
Invested
$68.85
Value
$74.49
PnL
+$5.64
Record
46%
611-730 (1341)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $4.2K
THG.
Down — $2.4K
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $858.07
ByteBadger92
Down — $498.66
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $367.22
Bonereaper
Down — $333.24
stepahead
Down — $282.36
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $267.4