Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 14 of 33 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET

14 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Up (42%) · Up at 0.5¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

-$201.98

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 33 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares14,628

Combined PnL-$146.83

Down19 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,525

Combined PnL-$55.15

Up — 42%Down — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.4K	+$7.29	56% 340-269 (609)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$13.12	39% 172-274 (446)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$3.29	98% 3154-65 (3219)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.5¢	$524.46	$496.35	+$1.92	55% 3061-2517 (5578)
AL almach	Downavg 98¢	$490	$492.5	+$2.5	50% 1226-1225 (2451)
BO bosona	Downavg 99¢	$284.18	$252.84	-$31.34	51% 4466-4351 (8817)
ST stepahead	Downavg 58.8¢	$182.46	$164.95	-$17.51	55% 4261-3501 (7762)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 64¢	$167.5	$140.48	-$27.03	51% 1947-1837 (3784)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 40.3¢	$231.6	$138.03	-$93.57	60% 914-608 (1522)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.2¢	$86.48	$100.24	+$13.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$145.12	$37.79	-$107.33
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 73.7¢	$99.2	$109.09	+$9.9	50% 4118-4199 (8317)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 88¢	$113.8	$100.95	-$12.85	44% 644-825 (1469)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 89.2¢	$91.46	$93.26	+$1.8	53% 758-669 (1427)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 69.1¢	$62.2	$89.55	+$27.35	53% 4443-3866 (8309)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 60.4¢	$95.8	$86.48	-$9.33	50% 681-683 (1364)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.4¢	$49.22	$59.9	+$10.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$46.59	$26.58	-$20.01
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 86¢	$46.07	$50.63	+$4.56	30% 594-1359 (1953)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 44.1¢	$57.8	$50.47	-$7.33	51% 859-820 (1679)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 18.2¢	$110.85	$32.7	-$78.15	46% 889-1025 (1914)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359<$100	Downavg 98¢	$40.71	$31.65	-$9.07	49% 666-682 (1348)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 87.9¢	$30.77	$31.33	+$0.55	44% 1825-2359 (4184)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 46.2¢	$35.85	$30.53	-$5.32	50% 1678-1678 (3356)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$40.6	$26.62	-$13.98	51% 684-670 (1354)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$25	$25.25	+$0.25	51% 674-657 (1331)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 90¢	$22.5	$22.63	+$0.13	48% 1846-2015 (3861)
AL Alpharo28CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$19.2	$20.2	+$1	58% 162-115 (277)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100	Downavg 61¢	$19.22	$19.37	+$0.16	46% 611-730 (1341)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,747

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$7.29

Record

56%

340-269 (609)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$13.12

Record

39%

172-274 (446)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,338.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$3.29

Record

98%

3154-65 (3219)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$524.46

Value

$496.35

PnL

+$1.92

Record

55%

3061-2517 (5578)

almach

Down

Invested

$490

Value

$492.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

50%

1226-1225 (2451)

bosona

Down

Invested

$284.18

Value

$252.84

PnL

-$31.34

Record

51%

4466-4351 (8817)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$182.46

Value

$164.95

PnL

-$17.51

Record

55%

4261-3501 (7762)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$167.5

Value

$140.48

PnL

-$27.03

Record

51%

1947-1837 (3784)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$231.6

Value

$138.03

PnL

-$93.57

Record

60%

914-608 (1522)

Both legs:

Down$86.4877.2¢+$13.76

Up$145.1240.3¢-$107.33

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$99.2

Value

$109.09

PnL

+$9.9

Record

50%

4118-4199 (8317)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$113.8

Value

$100.95

PnL

-$12.85

Record

44%

644-825 (1469)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$91.46

Value

$93.26

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

758-669 (1427)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$62.2

Value

$89.55

PnL

+$27.35

Record

53%

4443-3866 (8309)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$95.8

Value

$86.48

PnL

-$9.33

Record

50%

681-683 (1364)

Both legs:

Down$49.2260.4¢+$10.69

Up$46.5946.5¢-$20.01

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$46.07

Value

$50.63

PnL

+$4.56

Record

30%

594-1359 (1953)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$57.8

Value

$50.47

PnL

-$7.33

Record

51%

859-820 (1679)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$110.85

Value

$32.7

PnL

-$78.15

Record

46%

889-1025 (1914)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359<$100

Down

Invested

$40.71

Value

$31.65

PnL

-$9.07

Record

49%

666-682 (1348)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$30.77

Value

$31.33

PnL

+$0.55

Record

44%

1825-2359 (4184)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$35.85

Value

$30.53

PnL

-$5.32

Record

50%

1678-1678 (3356)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100

Invested

$40.6

Value

$26.62

PnL

-$13.98

Record

51%

684-670 (1354)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

674-657 (1331)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

1846-2015 (3861)

Alpharo28CTR<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

162-115 (277)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100

Down

Invested

$19.22

Value

$19.37

PnL

+$0.16

Record

46%

611-730 (1341)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 33 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6136.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

6236.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.