Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

41 of 49 top Polymarket traders hold Up (84%) · Up at 100¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 84%

Total Value

$22.7K

Combined PnL

-$88.96

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 100¢

+55% since entry · 41 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

41 of 49 top traders (84%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up41 traders

Total Value$22.4K

Total Shares22,632

Combined PnL+$36.59

Down8 traders

Total Value$336.67

Total Shares923

Combined PnL-$125.55

Up — 84%Down — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.7K	+$0.59	56% 339-269 (608)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$3.05	38% 167-268 (435)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$4.51	51% 1235-1184 (2419)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.09	98% 3131-65 (3196)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 82.9¢	$669.94	$732.38	+$62.44	46% 880-1020 (1900)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 98.5¢	$603.04	$611.69	+$8.65	41% 1336-1928 (3264)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 53.7¢	$575.05	$494.66	-$1.22	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
ST stepahead	Upavg 72.1¢	$311.38	$307.23	-$4.14	55% 4254-3494 (7748)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 32.2¢	$431.27	$275.12	-$116.06	60% 906-605 (1511)
BO bosona	Upavg 74.7¢	$228.71	$268.07	+$39.36	51% 4461-4339 (8800)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 78.5¢	$189.32	$175.83	-$13.48	51% 2812-2714 (5526)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 51.7¢	$167.47	$163.51	-$3.95	50% 1672-1674 (3346)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 80¢	$171.6	$162.04	-$7.4	52% 759-712 (1471)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 77.3¢	$152.96	$151.29	-$1.67	53% 753-663 (1416)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 98.2¢	$147.36	$149.93	+$2.56	38% 1240-1996 (3236)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 76.2¢	$256.72	$138.06	-$35.86	51% 1930-1826 (3756)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 67.3¢	$165.92	$137.32	-$28.6	44% 636-822 (1458)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 73¢	$96.53	$118.51	+$21.98	45% 675-823 (1498)
MO mo-money	Upavg 81¢	$115.54	$100.32	-$15.23	49% 1204-1240 (2444)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 98.6¢	$82.75	$83.53	+$0.78	33% 909-1883 (2792)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 86.6¢	$69.65	$80.37	+$10.72	67% 3145-1560 (4705)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 77.2¢	$217.2	$76.01	-$33.95	52% 4742-4430 (9172)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 72.9¢	$54.97	$64.25	+$9.33	55% 781-639 (1420)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 83.5¢	$61.85	$58.01	-$3.84	50% 676-677 (1353)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Upavg 57.6¢	$45.67	$57.14	+$11.47	51% 671-649 (1320)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,760

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$0.59

Record

56%

339-269 (608)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$3.05

Record

38%

167-268 (435)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$4.51

Record

51%

1235-1184 (2419)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,051.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.09

Record

98%

3131-65 (3196)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$669.94

Value

$732.38

PnL

+$62.44

Record

46%

880-1020 (1900)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$603.04

Value

$611.69

PnL

+$8.65

Record

41%

1336-1928 (3264)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$575.05

Value

$494.66

PnL

-$1.22

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

stepahead

Invested

$311.38

Value

$307.23

PnL

-$4.14

Record

55%

4254-3494 (7748)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$431.27

Value

$275.12

PnL

-$116.06

Record

60%

906-605 (1511)

bosona

Invested

$228.71

Value

$268.07

PnL

+$39.36

Record

51%

4461-4339 (8800)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$189.32

Value

$175.83

PnL

-$13.48

Record

51%

2812-2714 (5526)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$167.47

Value

$163.51

PnL

-$3.95

Record

50%

1672-1674 (3346)

wzbbb

Invested

$171.6

Value

$162.04

PnL

-$7.4

Record

52%

759-712 (1471)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$152.96

Value

$151.29

PnL

-$1.67

Record

53%

753-663 (1416)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$147.36

Value

$149.93

PnL

+$2.56

Record

38%

1240-1996 (3236)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$256.72

Value

$138.06

PnL

-$35.86

Record

51%

1930-1826 (3756)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$165.92

Value

$137.32

PnL

-$28.6

Record

44%

636-822 (1458)

GoodFallen

Invested

$96.53

Value

$118.51

PnL

+$21.98

Record

45%

675-823 (1498)

mo-money

Invested

$115.54

Value

$100.32

PnL

-$15.23

Record

49%

1204-1240 (2444)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$82.75

Value

$83.53

PnL

+$0.78

Record

33%

909-1883 (2792)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$69.65

Value

$80.37

PnL

+$10.72

Record

67%

3145-1560 (4705)

blue.birds

Invested

$217.2

Value

$76.01

PnL

-$33.95

Record

52%

4742-4430 (9172)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$54.97

Value

$64.25

PnL

+$9.33

Record

55%

781-639 (1420)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$61.85

Value

$58.01

PnL

-$3.84

Record

50%

676-677 (1353)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Invested

$45.67

Value

$57.14

PnL

+$11.47

Record

51%

671-649 (1320)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

41 of 49 top traders (84%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.