Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
56
Up 27%
1 arb excluded
$8.6K
$-13.3K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 56 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-8.6K | 56% 339-269 (608) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 38% 167-268 (435) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$17.78 | 98% 3131-65 (3196) |
BO bosona | Downavg 91.2¢ | $947.49 | $1.0K | +$82.03 | 51% 4461-4339 (8800) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 71.5¢ | $486.2 | $514.05 | +$31.37 | 60% 906-605 (1511) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $557.11 | $503.97 | -$3.48 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 84.4¢ | $509.07 | $521.62 | +$12.55 | 45% 945-1136 (2081) |
AL almach | Downavg 94¢ | $470 | $500 | +$30 | 50% 1219-1216 (2435) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 66.3¢ | $485.7 | $421.34 | -$64.36 | 46% 880-1020 (1900) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 73.2¢ | $395.87 | $407.58 | +$11.71 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 70.5¢ | $306.45 | $434.94 | +$128.49 | 49% 1204-1240 (2444) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 81.5¢ | $328.28 | $332.75 | +$4.47 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 74.3¢ | $365.73 | $296.7 | -$69.03 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71.8¢ | $302.66 | $239.57 | -$63.09 | 44% 636-822 (1458) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 49.5¢ | $231.64 | — | -$231.64 | 50% 1672-1674 (3346) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71¢ | $230.92 | $213.08 | -$17.84 | 55% 4254-3494 (7748) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 69.3¢ | $125.08 | $180.54 | +$55.46 | 52% 759-712 (1471) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 49¢ | $133.16 | $148.73 | +$16.43 | 30% 586-1356 (1942) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 49.4¢ | $100.63 | $149.46 | +$48.82 | 49% 656-681 (1337) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 98.9¢ | $140.31 | $137.83 | -$2.48 | 38% 1240-1996 (3236) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 74.4¢ | $122.93 | $116.56 | -$6.37 | 53% 753-663 (1416) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $57.35 | $87.91 | +$30.56 | 55% 781-639 (1420) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Upavg 41.3¢ | $90.63 | $63 | -$27.63 | 45% 603-727 (1330) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.3¢ | $49.68 | — | -$49.68 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65¢ | $40.95 | $63 | +$22.05 | |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 36.2¢ | $159.64 | — | -$159.64 | 45% 675-823 (1498) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 90.7¢ | $110.83 | $70.76 | -$40.07 | 51% 671-649 (1320) |
Invested
$8,626
Value
—
PnL
$-8.6K
Record
56%
339-269 (608)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
38%
167-268 (435)
Invested
$1,481.45
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$17.78
Record
98%
3131-65 (3196)
Invested
$947.49
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$82.03
Record
51%
4461-4339 (8800)
Invested
$486.2
Value
$514.05
PnL
+$31.37
Record
60%
906-605 (1511)
Invested
$557.11
Value
$503.97
PnL
-$3.48
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
machinelearnedInvested
$509.07
Value
$521.62
PnL
+$12.55
Record
45%
945-1136 (2081)
Invested
$470
Value
$500
PnL
+$30
Record
50%
1219-1216 (2435)
Invested
$485.7
Value
$421.34
PnL
-$64.36
Record
46%
880-1020 (1900)
Invested
$395.87
Value
$407.58
PnL
+$11.71
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
Invested
$306.45
Value
$434.94
PnL
+$128.49
Record
49%
1204-1240 (2444)
Invested
$328.28
Value
$332.75
PnL
+$4.47
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$365.73
Value
$296.7
PnL
-$69.03
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
Invested
$302.66
Value
$239.57
PnL
-$63.09
Record
44%
636-822 (1458)
Invested
$231.64
Value
—
PnL
-$231.64
Record
50%
1672-1674 (3346)
Invested
$230.92
Value
$213.08
PnL
-$17.84
Record
55%
4254-3494 (7748)
Invested
$125.08
Value
$180.54
PnL
+$55.46
Record
52%
759-712 (1471)
Invested
$133.16
Value
$148.73
PnL
+$16.43
Record
30%
586-1356 (1942)
Invested
$100.63
Value
$149.46
PnL
+$48.82
Record
49%
656-681 (1337)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$140.31
Value
$137.83
PnL
-$2.48
Record
38%
1240-1996 (3236)
Invested
$122.93
Value
$116.56
PnL
-$6.37
Record
53%
753-663 (1416)
Invested
$57.35
Value
$87.91
PnL
+$30.56
Record
55%
781-639 (1420)
Invested
$90.63
Value
$63
PnL
-$27.63
Record
45%
603-727 (1330)
Both legs:
Invested
$159.64
Value
—
PnL
-$159.64
Record
45%
675-823 (1498)
Invested
$110.83
Value
$70.76
PnL
-$40.07
Record
51%
671-649 (1320)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
bosona
Down — $1.0K
Bonereaper
Down — $514.05
ByteBadger92
Down — $503.97
machinelearned
Down — $521.62
almach
Down — $500
CrouchPredictions
Down — $421.34
asdcaxz
Down — $407.58