Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

-$828.59

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 49 top traders (78%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down38 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares14,060

Combined PnL-$483.2

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,160

Combined PnL-$345.39

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$9.25	38% 167-268 (435)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 85.2¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$178.43	46% 880-1020 (1900)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$950	$918.44	-$3.09	51% 2976-2895 (5871)
machinelearned	Downavg 81.8¢	$753.11	$634.81	-$118.3	45% 945-1136 (2081)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 58.6¢	$587.29	$615.72	+$28.43	44% 636-822 (1458)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 68.5¢	$699.45	$590.01	+$16.65	51% 1930-1826 (3756)
ST stepahead	Downavg 72.7¢	$582.42	$572.13	-$10.29	55% 4254-3494 (7748)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 70.3¢	$584.85	$555.98	-$28.88	52% 4742-4430 (9172)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$534.61	$495	-$0.85	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$246.52	$495	+$249.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$248.53	—	-$250.05
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 58.5¢	$505.51	$470.12	-$14.09	60% 906-605 (1511)
BO bosona	Downavg 85.5¢	$596.89	$428.52	-$168.37	51% 4461-4339 (8800)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$413.46	$415.46	+$2	45% 675-823 (1498)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.1¢	$241.37	$415.46	+$174.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.9¢	$172.09	—	-$172.09
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.9¢	$396.57	$394.93	-$1.64	30% 586-1356 (1942)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 75.1¢	$307.23	$337.33	+$30.1	53% 753-663 (1416)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 72.1¢	$401.65	$321.34	-$80.31	49% 4099-4182 (8281)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 60¢	$286.99	$239.36	-$35.68	53% 4439-3859 (8298)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 71.2¢	$209.38	$226.28	+$16.9	48% 634-680 (1314)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 60.2¢	$181.01	$200.11	+$19.09	55% 781-639 (1420)
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$190.52	$184	-$6.52	51% 656-643 (1299)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.7¢	$120.9	$184	+$63.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.5¢	$69.62	—	-$69.62
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$168.3	$170	+$1.7	98% 3131-65 (3196)
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 90.3¢	$163.1	$166.12	+$3.01	56% 339-269 (608)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 38.3¢	$153.26	$118.16	-$35.1	44% 1813-2341 (4154)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$78.39	—	-$78.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.4¢	$74.87	$118.16	+$43.29
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$133.43	$194.98	+$61.54	47% 1892-2135 (4027)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.1¢	$101.54	$194.98	+$93.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.5¢	$31.9	—	-$31.9
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 96¢	$189.92	$126	-$63.92	51% 682-657 (1339)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$132.26	$141.29	+$9.03	59% 843-587 (1430)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.5¢	$93.99	$141.29	+$47.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.9¢	$38.27	—	-$38.27

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$9.25

Record

38%

167-268 (435)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,563.28

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$178.43

Record

46%

880-1020 (1900)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$918.44

PnL

-$3.09

Record

51%

2976-2895 (5871)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$753.11

Value

$634.81

PnL

-$118.3

Record

45%

945-1136 (2081)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$587.29

Value

$615.72

PnL

+$28.43

Record

44%

636-822 (1458)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$699.45

Value

$590.01

PnL

+$16.65

Record

51%

1930-1826 (3756)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$582.42

Value

$572.13

PnL

-$10.29

Record

55%

4254-3494 (7748)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$584.85

Value

$555.98

PnL

-$28.88

Record

52%

4742-4430 (9172)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$534.61

Value

$495

PnL

-$0.85

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

Both legs:

Down$246.5249.8¢+$249.2

Up$248.5349.2¢-$250.05

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$505.51

Value

$470.12

PnL

-$14.09

Record

60%

906-605 (1511)

bosona

Down

Invested

$596.89

Value

$428.52

PnL

-$168.37

Record

51%

4461-4339 (8800)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$413.46

Value

$415.46

PnL

+$2

Record

45%

675-823 (1498)

Both legs:

Down$241.3758.1¢+$174.09

Up$172.0940.9¢-$172.09

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$396.57

Value

$394.93

PnL

-$1.64

Record

30%

586-1356 (1942)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$307.23

Value

$337.33

PnL

+$30.1

Record

53%

753-663 (1416)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$401.65

Value

$321.34

PnL

-$80.31

Record

49%

4099-4182 (8281)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$286.99

Value

$239.36

PnL

-$35.68

Record

53%

4439-3859 (8298)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$209.38

Value

$226.28

PnL

+$16.9

Record

48%

634-680 (1314)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$181.01

Value

$200.11

PnL

+$19.09

Record

55%

781-639 (1420)

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$190.52

Value

$184

PnL

-$6.52

Record

51%

656-643 (1299)

Both legs:

Down$120.965.7¢+$63.1

Up$69.6243.5¢-$69.62

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$168.3

Value

$170

PnL

+$1.7

Record

98%

3131-65 (3196)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$163.1

Value

$166.12

PnL

+$3.01

Record

56%

339-269 (608)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$153.26

Value

$118.16

PnL

-$35.1

Record

44%

1813-2341 (4154)

Both legs:

Up$78.3938.3¢-$78.39

Down$74.8763.4¢+$43.29

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$133.43

Value

$194.98

PnL

+$61.54

Record

47%

1892-2135 (4027)

Both legs:

Down$101.5452.1¢+$93.44

Up$31.937.5¢-$31.9

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$189.92

Value

$126

PnL

-$63.92

Record

51%

682-657 (1339)

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$132.26

Value

$141.29

PnL

+$9.03

Record

59%

843-587 (1430)

Both legs:

Down$93.9966.5¢+$47.3

Up$38.2747.9¢-$38.27

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 49 top traders (78%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd72743e2...1b5a4c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794630300

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$9.25

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.4K

-$178.43

soswald1

Down — $918.44

-$3.09

machinelearned

Down — $634.81

-$118.3

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $615.72

+$28.43

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $590.01

+$16.65

stepahead

Down — $572.13

-$10.29

blue.birds

Down — $555.98

-$28.88

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$0.85

Bonereaper

Down — $470.12

-$14.09

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