Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Up 47%
3 arb excluded
$7.6K
$-6.8K
Smart Money Signal
28 of 59 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed31 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 38% 167-268 (435) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 65.6¢ | $806.22 | $886.52 | +$80.3 | 60% 906-605 (1511) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 76.2¢ | $745.57 | $677.19 | -$68.38 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 65¢ | $646.13 | $579.85 | -$66.28 | 44% 636-822 (1458) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 62.9¢ | $499.28 | $563.36 | +$64.08 | 45% 675-823 (1498) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 76.1¢ | $521.3 | $496.27 | -$25.03 | 53% 753-663 (1416) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.8¢ | $584 | $488.66 | -$1.99 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 71.4¢ | $469.94 | $457.6 | -$8.02 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 57.8¢ | $712.15 | — | -$712.15 | 46% 880-1020 (1900) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 48.1¢ | $352.02 | $381.95 | +$45.05 | 55% 4254-3494 (7748) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 65.9¢ | $329.6 | $395.31 | +$65.72 | 49% 656-681 (1337) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 41.4¢ | $584.61 | — | -$334.25 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 40¢ | $200 | — | -$200 | 49% 1204-1240 (2444) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 69.1¢ | $308.88 | $297.97 | -$10.91 | 55% 781-639 (1420) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 54.8¢ | $212.07 | $277.13 | +$66.91 | 53% 4439-3859 (8298) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 65.9¢ | $286.41 | $267.66 | -$18.75 | 30% 586-1356 (1942) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 40¢ | $204.65 | — | -$204.65 | 50% 1219-1216 (2435) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $148.16 | $189.66 | +$41.51 | 51% 682-657 (1339) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 49.1¢ | $781.92 | — | -$268.76 | 51% 4461-4339 (8800) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Upavg 44.9¢ | $135.15 | $176 | +$40.85 | 50% 677-666 (1343) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.9¢ | $79.03 | $176 | +$96.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.7¢ | $56.12 | — | -$56.12 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 67¢ | $118.06 | $156.95 | +$38.9 | 39% 654-1033 (1687) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 76.6¢ | $144.87 | $148.08 | +$3.21 | 52% 759-712 (1471) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 77¢ | $122.5 | $150 | +$27.5 | 71% 1422-567 (1989) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 57.1¢ | $132.03 | $130 | -$0.57 | 51% 656-643 (1299) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 75¢ | $126.67 | $125.93 | -$0.74 | 60% 846-569 (1415) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
38%
167-268 (435)
Invested
$806.22
Value
$886.52
PnL
+$80.3
Record
60%
906-605 (1511)
Invested
$745.57
Value
$677.19
PnL
-$68.38
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Invested
$646.13
Value
$579.85
PnL
-$66.28
Record
44%
636-822 (1458)
Invested
$499.28
Value
$563.36
PnL
+$64.08
Record
45%
675-823 (1498)
Invested
$521.3
Value
$496.27
PnL
-$25.03
Record
53%
753-663 (1416)
Invested
$584
Value
$488.66
PnL
-$1.99
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Invested
$469.94
Value
$457.6
PnL
-$8.02
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
Invested
$712.15
Value
—
PnL
-$712.15
Record
46%
880-1020 (1900)
Invested
$352.02
Value
$381.95
PnL
+$45.05
Record
55%
4254-3494 (7748)
Invested
$329.6
Value
$395.31
PnL
+$65.72
Record
49%
656-681 (1337)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$584.61
Value
—
PnL
-$334.25
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
Invested
$200
Value
—
PnL
-$200
Record
49%
1204-1240 (2444)
Invested
$308.88
Value
$297.97
PnL
-$10.91
Record
55%
781-639 (1420)
FairValueMachineInvested
$212.07
Value
$277.13
PnL
+$66.91
Record
53%
4439-3859 (8298)
Invested
$286.41
Value
$267.66
PnL
-$18.75
Record
30%
586-1356 (1942)
Invested
$204.65
Value
—
PnL
-$204.65
Record
50%
1219-1216 (2435)
Invested
$148.16
Value
$189.66
PnL
+$41.51
Record
51%
682-657 (1339)
Invested
$781.92
Value
—
PnL
-$268.76
Record
51%
4461-4339 (8800)
Invested
$135.15
Value
$176
PnL
+$40.85
Record
50%
677-666 (1343)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$118.06
Value
$156.95
PnL
+$38.9
Record
39%
654-1033 (1687)
Invested
$144.87
Value
$148.08
PnL
+$3.21
Record
52%
759-712 (1471)
BoneOhioInvested
$122.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$27.5
Record
71%
1422-567 (1989)
OhioAIInvested
$132.03
Value
$130
PnL
-$0.57
Record
51%
656-643 (1299)
Invested
$126.67
Value
$125.93
PnL
-$0.74
Record
60%
846-569 (1415)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $886.52
blue.birds
Up — $677.19
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $579.85
GoodFallen
Up — $563.36
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $496.27
ByteBadger92
Up — $488.66
asdcaxz
Up — $457.6
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $381.95