Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Up 63%
6 arb excluded
$9.3K
$-7.2K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 59 top traders (64%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%37 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 38% 167-268 (435) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$32.04 | 99% 744-7 (751) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 89¢ | $1.1K | $930.56 | -$169.49 | 46% 880-1020 (1900) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 71¢ | $803.69 | $654.73 | -$51.96 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 49.1¢ | $539.41 | — | -$539.41 | 50% 1219-1216 (2435) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 73.5¢ | $620.78 | $536.89 | -$57.09 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.1¢ | $544.28 | — | -$494.54 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $605.61 | $295.24 | -$310.37 | 60% 906-605 (1511) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $146.35 | $295.24 | +$148.89 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46¢ | $459.26 | — | -$459.26 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $436.62 | $355.34 | -$81.28 | 53% 753-663 (1416) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.6¢ | $186.78 | $355.34 | +$168.57 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $249.85 | — | -$249.85 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 52.8¢ | $546.36 | — | -$546.36 | 49% 1204-1240 (2444) |
BO bosona | Upavg 77¢ | $292.44 | $285.3 | -$7.15 | 51% 4461-4339 (8800) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 39.9¢ | $317.28 | $254.15 | -$63.14 | 55% 4254-3494 (7748) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $142.34 | $254.15 | +$111.81 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.9¢ | $174.94 | — | -$174.94 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 69.5¢ | $307.37 | $281.22 | -$26.15 | 45% 675-823 (1498) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 64.8¢ | $223.68 | $254.13 | +$30.45 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 70.2¢ | $345.05 | $245.78 | -$99.27 | 44% 636-822 (1458) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 50.7¢ | $164.93 | $279.26 | +$116.32 | 55% 781-639 (1420) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 47.4¢ | $77.59 | $147.77 | +$79.54 | 51% 849-816 (1665) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 95¢ | $119.7 | $126 | +$6.3 | 49% 656-681 (1337) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 71.1¢ | $116.91 | $118.87 | +$1.97 | 44% 1813-2341 (4154) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 92.7¢ | $110.93 | $107.21 | -$13.55 | 63% 3717-2213 (5930) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 96.1¢ | $212.94 | $105.68 | -$53.43 | 30% 586-1356 (1942) |
SU suntori | Upavg 46.5¢ | $46.7 | $100.42 | +$53.72 | 46% 2359-2814 (5173) |
AA aaa221 | Upavg 69.8¢ | $112.19 | $107.43 | +$0.34 | 60% 3298-2213 (5511) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 68.9¢ | $84.88 | $75.06 | +$4.88 | 48% 1833-1999 (3832) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $90.95 | $73 | -$17.95 | 67% 3145-1560 (4705) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
38%
167-268 (435)
Invested
$3,171.96
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$32.04
Record
99%
744-7 (751)
Invested
$1,100.05
Value
$930.56
PnL
-$169.49
Record
46%
880-1020 (1900)
Invested
$803.69
Value
$654.73
PnL
-$51.96
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Invested
$539.41
Value
—
PnL
-$539.41
Record
50%
1219-1216 (2435)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$620.78
Value
$536.89
PnL
-$57.09
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
Invested
$544.28
Value
—
PnL
-$494.54
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Invested
$605.61
Value
$295.24
PnL
-$310.37
Record
60%
906-605 (1511)
Both legs:
Invested
$436.62
Value
$355.34
PnL
-$81.28
Record
53%
753-663 (1416)
Both legs:
Invested
$546.36
Value
—
PnL
-$546.36
Record
49%
1204-1240 (2444)
Invested
$292.44
Value
$285.3
PnL
-$7.15
Record
51%
4461-4339 (8800)
Invested
$317.28
Value
$254.15
PnL
-$63.14
Record
55%
4254-3494 (7748)
Both legs:
Invested
$307.37
Value
$281.22
PnL
-$26.15
Record
45%
675-823 (1498)
Invested
$223.68
Value
$254.13
PnL
+$30.45
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
Invested
$345.05
Value
$245.78
PnL
-$99.27
Record
44%
636-822 (1458)
Invested
$164.93
Value
$279.26
PnL
+$116.32
Record
55%
781-639 (1420)
Invested
$77.59
Value
$147.77
PnL
+$79.54
Record
51%
849-816 (1665)
Invested
$119.7
Value
$126
PnL
+$6.3
Record
49%
656-681 (1337)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$116.91
Value
$118.87
PnL
+$1.97
Record
44%
1813-2341 (4154)
Invested
$110.93
Value
$107.21
PnL
-$13.55
Record
63%
3717-2213 (5930)
Invested
$212.94
Value
$105.68
PnL
-$53.43
Record
30%
586-1356 (1942)
Invested
$46.7
Value
$100.42
PnL
+$53.72
Record
46%
2359-2814 (5173)
Invested
$112.19
Value
$107.43
PnL
+$0.34
Record
60%
3298-2213 (5511)
ohioism<$100Invested
$84.88
Value
$75.06
PnL
+$4.88
Record
48%
1833-1999 (3832)
Invested
$90.95
Value
$73
PnL
-$17.95
Record
67%
3145-1560 (4705)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.2K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $930.56
blue.birds
Up — $654.73
almach
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $536.89
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
CTRDown — $0