Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Down 59%
4 arb excluded
$8.3K
$-7.0K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 56 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%37 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 38% 167-268 (435) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.08 | 51% 1235-1184 (2419) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 64.6¢ | $796.8 | $755.08 | -$41.73 | 46% 880-1020 (1900) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $751.4 | $758.99 | +$7.59 | 98% 3131-65 (3196) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $567.68 | $491.48 | +$1.79 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245.81 | $491.48 | +$251.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $249.98 | — | -$249.98 | |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 47.3¢ | $986.09 | — | -$986.09 | 51% 4461-4339 (8800) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 40.5¢ | $557.29 | — | -$557.29 | 60% 906-605 (1511) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 41.7¢ | $446.53 | — | -$446.53 | 44% 636-822 (1458) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 55¢ | $373.13 | $349.25 | +$34.08 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 55.9¢ | $382.09 | $345.47 | -$11.12 | 45% 675-823 (1498) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 66.9¢ | $303.88 | $265.86 | -$38.02 | 55% 781-639 (1420) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 89.6¢ | $295.57 | $215.5 | -$70.5 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 61.2¢ | $258.45 | $212.04 | -$46.41 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 73.3¢ | $187.37 | $188.99 | +$1.62 | 49% 656-681 (1337) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 65.3¢ | $189.9 | $173.71 | -$14.64 | 52% 759-712 (1471) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.4¢ | $169.53 | $194.81 | +$25.28 | 50% 677-666 (1343) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.4¢ | $108.02 | $194.81 | +$86.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.2¢ | $61.52 | — | -$61.52 | |
 OhioAI | Downavg 56.5¢ | $149.25 | $158.32 | +$9.06 | 51% 656-643 (1299) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 58.1¢ | $136.97 | $159.43 | +$22.46 | 53% 753-663 (1416) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 63.2¢ | $164.89 | $147.59 | -$17.3 | 55% 4254-3494 (7748) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 42.5¢ | $140.46 | $101.28 | -$39.18 | 53% 4439-3859 (8298) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.2¢ | $63.96 | $101.28 | +$37.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.5¢ | $76.5 | — | -$76.5 | |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 52¢ | $60.14 | $115.46 | +$55.31 | 38% 1224-2020 (3244) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 33¢ | $111.22 | — | -$111.22 | 45% 945-1136 (2081) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 36.4¢ | $93.49 | $68.23 | -$25.26 | 30% 586-1356 (1942) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58¢ | $39.6 | $68.23 | +$28.63 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.4¢ | $53.89 | — | -$53.89 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 67.2¢ | $70.84 | $77.27 | +$6.43 | 50% 676-677 (1353) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $72.22 | $76.74 | +$5.36 | 67% 3145-1560 (4705) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
38%
167-268 (435)
Invested
$2,977.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.08
Record
51%
1235-1184 (2419)
Invested
$796.8
Value
$755.08
PnL
-$41.73
Record
46%
880-1020 (1900)
Invested
$751.4
Value
$758.99
PnL
+$7.59
Record
98%
3131-65 (3196)
Invested
$567.68
Value
$491.48
PnL
+$1.79
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Both legs:
Invested
$986.09
Value
—
PnL
-$986.09
Record
51%
4461-4339 (8800)
Invested
$557.29
Value
—
PnL
-$557.29
Record
60%
906-605 (1511)
Invested
$446.53
Value
—
PnL
-$446.53
Record
44%
636-822 (1458)
Invested
$373.13
Value
$349.25
PnL
+$34.08
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Invested
$382.09
Value
$345.47
PnL
-$11.12
Record
45%
675-823 (1498)
Invested
$303.88
Value
$265.86
PnL
-$38.02
Record
55%
781-639 (1420)
Invested
$295.57
Value
$215.5
PnL
-$70.5
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$258.45
Value
$212.04
PnL
-$46.41
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
Invested
$187.37
Value
$188.99
PnL
+$1.62
Record
49%
656-681 (1337)
Invested
$189.9
Value
$173.71
PnL
-$14.64
Record
52%
759-712 (1471)
Invested
$169.53
Value
$194.81
PnL
+$25.28
Record
50%
677-666 (1343)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$149.25
Value
$158.32
PnL
+$9.06
Record
51%
656-643 (1299)
Invested
$136.97
Value
$159.43
PnL
+$22.46
Record
53%
753-663 (1416)
Invested
$164.89
Value
$147.59
PnL
-$17.3
Record
55%
4254-3494 (7748)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$140.46
Value
$101.28
PnL
-$39.18
Record
53%
4439-3859 (8298)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.14
Value
$115.46
PnL
+$55.31
Record
38%
1224-2020 (3244)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$111.22
Value
—
PnL
-$111.22
Record
45%
945-1136 (2081)
Invested
$93.49
Value
$68.23
PnL
-$25.26
Record
30%
586-1356 (1942)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.84
Value
$77.27
PnL
+$6.43
Record
50%
676-677 (1353)
Invested
$72.22
Value
$76.74
PnL
+$5.36
Record
67%
3145-1560 (4705)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $755.08
hoodquant
Down — $758.99
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $349.25
GoodFallen
Down — $345.47