Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$-6.7K

Smart Money Signal

40 of 63 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,686

Combined PnL$-7.0K

Up40 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares12,210

Combined PnL+$304.02

Down — 37%Up — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.4K	38% 167-268 (435)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 79.2¢	$989.46	$1.0K	+$54.09	52% 4742-4430 (9172)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$950	—	-$920.5	51% 2976-2895 (5871)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 82.2¢	$839.52	$741.42	-$98.1	49% 4099-4182 (8281)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 40.8¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	60% 906-605 (1511)
BO bosona	Upavg 69.6¢	$585.03	$833.17	+$248.13	51% 4461-4339 (8800)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 80.1¢	$710.84	$656.32	-$54.52	44% 636-822 (1458)
AL almach	Upavg 81.5¢	$879.86	$656.89	-$222.97	50% 1219-1216 (2435)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 51.4¢	$514.43	$1.0K	+$486.4	50% 1672-1674 (3346)
MO mo-money	Upavg 77¢	$774.49	$583.88	-$190.61	49% 1204-1240 (2444)
ST stepahead	Upavg 69.5¢	$469.28	$518.68	+$49.4	55% 4254-3494 (7748)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.8¢	$545.13	$485	-$2.89	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 80.4¢	$469.44	$482.24	+$12.81	55% 781-639 (1420)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 78.5¢	$441.83	$397.56	-$39.39	53% 753-663 (1416)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$391.59	$391.98	+$0.39	51% 1235-1184 (2419)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 73.5¢	$358.63	$388	+$36.99	51% 1930-1826 (3756)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 73.7¢	$419.9	$379.99	-$39.91	45% 675-823 (1498)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$381.51	$385.36	+$3.85	99% 744-7 (751)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 76.3¢	$402.53	$376.39	-$26.14	46% 880-1020 (1900)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 68.9¢	$376.3	$301.88	-$37.61	52% 759-712 (1471)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 92¢	$309.85	$291.28	-$18.27	67% 3145-1560 (4705)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 75.5¢	$234.28	$259.99	+$25.7	53% 4439-3859 (8298)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 87.7¢	$234.26	$235.01	+$0.75	51% 741-699 (1440)
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359	Upavg 77.6¢	$234.91	$246.78	+$11.88	49% 656-681 (1337)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 47.8¢	$133.17	$189.3	+$56.14	50% 676-677 (1353)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

38%

167-268 (435)

blue.birds

Invested

$989.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$54.09

Record

52%

4742-4430 (9172)

soswald1CTR

Down

Invested

$950

Value

—

PnL

-$920.5

Record

51%

2976-2895 (5871)

asdcaxz

Invested

$839.52

Value

$741.42

PnL

-$98.1

Record

49%

4099-4182 (8281)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$1,090.59

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

60%

906-605 (1511)

bosona

Invested

$585.03

Value

$833.17

PnL

+$248.13

Record

51%

4461-4339 (8800)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$710.84

Value

$656.32

PnL

-$54.52

Record

44%

636-822 (1458)

almach

Invested

$879.86

Value

$656.89

PnL

-$222.97

Record

50%

1219-1216 (2435)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$514.43

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$486.4

Record

50%

1672-1674 (3346)

mo-money

Invested

$774.49

Value

$583.88

PnL

-$190.61

Record

49%

1204-1240 (2444)

stepahead

Invested

$469.28

Value

$518.68

PnL

+$49.4

Record

55%

4254-3494 (7748)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$545.13

Value

$485

PnL

-$2.89

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$469.44

Value

$482.24

PnL

+$12.81

Record

55%

781-639 (1420)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$441.83

Value

$397.56

PnL

-$39.39

Record

53%

753-663 (1416)

0x50f7

Invested

$391.59

Value

$391.98

PnL

+$0.39

Record

51%

1235-1184 (2419)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$358.63

Value

$388

PnL

+$36.99

Record

51%

1930-1826 (3756)

GoodFallen

Invested

$419.9

Value

$379.99

PnL

-$39.91

Record

45%

675-823 (1498)

THG.

Invested

$381.51

Value

$385.36

PnL

+$3.85

Record

99%

744-7 (751)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$402.53

Value

$376.39

PnL

-$26.14

Record

46%

880-1020 (1900)

wzbbb

Invested

$376.3

Value

$301.88

PnL

-$37.61

Record

52%

759-712 (1471)

asdaefef

Invested

$309.85

Value

$291.28

PnL

-$18.27

Record

67%

3145-1560 (4705)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$234.28

Value

$259.99

PnL

+$25.7

Record

53%

4439-3859 (8298)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$234.26

Value

$235.01

PnL

+$0.75

Record

51%

741-699 (1440)

0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359

Invested

$234.91

Value

$246.78

PnL

+$11.88

Record

49%

656-681 (1337)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$133.17

Value

$189.3

PnL

+$56.14

Record

50%

676-677 (1353)

Smart Money Signal

40 of 63 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3e7edabe...264293

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794628800

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-4.4K

blue.birds

Up — $1.0K

+$54.09

soswald1

CTR

Down — $0

-$920.5

asdcaxz

Up — $741.42

-$98.1

Bonereaper

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.1K

bosona

Up — $833.17

+$248.13

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $656.32

-$54.52

almach

Up — $656.89

-$222.97

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.0K

+$486.4

mo-money

Up — $583.88

-$190.61

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