Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Down 66%
$8.1K
$-5.8K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 52 top traders (67%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 38% 167-268 (435) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.04 | 51% 1235-1184 (2419) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $891.99 | $901 | +$9.01 | 98% 3131-65 (3196) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 83¢ | $584.71 | $653.51 | +$68.8 | 46% 880-1020 (1900) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $552.16 | $500 | -$5.55 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71.2¢ | $386.31 | $434.04 | +$47.73 | 44% 636-822 (1458) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 34.3¢ | $587.15 | — | -$586.85 | 60% 906-605 (1511) |
BO bosona | Downavg 99.6¢ | $1.3K | $353.22 | -$262.93 | 51% 4461-4339 (8800) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 75¢ | $294.22 | $246.66 | -$47.55 | 55% 4254-3494 (7748) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 67.4¢ | $176.81 | $201.49 | +$57.88 | 52% 759-712 (1471) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 82.1¢ | $190.33 | $191.65 | +$20.32 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 74.3¢ | $133.72 | $180.07 | +$46.35 | 55% 781-639 (1420) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 73.4¢ | $151.45 | $155.27 | +$5.72 | 45% 675-823 (1498) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 99.1¢ | $153.18 | $149.7 | -$3.48 | 52% 2385-2166 (4551) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 85.2¢ | $108.93 | $127.83 | +$18.9 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 87.2¢ | $479.4 | $127.37 | -$102.81 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 83.6¢ | $70.73 | $84.61 | +$13.88 | 45% 945-1136 (2081) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $87.61 | $80 | -$7.61 | 60% 846-569 (1415) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $60.57 | $79.52 | +$18.95 | 47% 1892-2135 (4027) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 68.8¢ | $48.55 | $70.55 | +$22 | 67% 3145-1560 (4705) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $68.13 | $66.67 | -$1.47 | 59% 843-587 (1430) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $57.98 | $63 | +$5.02 | 50% 676-677 (1353) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $67.54 | $63 | -$4.54 | 45% 603-727 (1330) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $56.55 | $55.18 | +$2.39 | 53% 4439-3859 (8298) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $64.67 | $43.99 | -$20.68 | 53% 753-663 (1416) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
38%
167-268 (435)
Invested
$3,004.97
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.04
Record
51%
1235-1184 (2419)
Invested
$891.99
Value
$901
PnL
+$9.01
Record
98%
3131-65 (3196)
Invested
$584.71
Value
$653.51
PnL
+$68.8
Record
46%
880-1020 (1900)
Invested
$552.16
Value
$500
PnL
-$5.55
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Invested
$386.31
Value
$434.04
PnL
+$47.73
Record
44%
636-822 (1458)
Invested
$587.15
Value
—
PnL
-$586.85
Record
60%
906-605 (1511)
Invested
$1,283.49
Value
$353.22
PnL
-$262.93
Record
51%
4461-4339 (8800)
Invested
$294.22
Value
$246.66
PnL
-$47.55
Record
55%
4254-3494 (7748)
Invested
$176.81
Value
$201.49
PnL
+$57.88
Record
52%
759-712 (1471)
Invested
$190.33
Value
$191.65
PnL
+$20.32
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Invested
$133.72
Value
$180.07
PnL
+$46.35
Record
55%
781-639 (1420)
Invested
$151.45
Value
$155.27
PnL
+$5.72
Record
45%
675-823 (1498)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$153.18
Value
$149.7
PnL
-$3.48
Record
52%
2385-2166 (4551)
Invested
$108.93
Value
$127.83
PnL
+$18.9
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$479.4
Value
$127.37
PnL
-$102.81
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$70.73
Value
$84.61
PnL
+$13.88
Record
45%
945-1136 (2081)
Invested
$87.61
Value
$80
PnL
-$7.61
Record
60%
846-569 (1415)
Invested
$60.57
Value
$79.52
PnL
+$18.95
Record
47%
1892-2135 (4027)
Invested
$48.55
Value
$70.55
PnL
+$22
Record
67%
3145-1560 (4705)
Invested
$68.13
Value
$66.67
PnL
-$1.47
Record
59%
843-587 (1430)
Invested
$57.98
Value
$63
PnL
+$5.02
Record
50%
676-677 (1353)
Invested
$67.54
Value
$63
PnL
-$4.54
Record
45%
603-727 (1330)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$56.55
Value
$55.18
PnL
+$2.39
Record
53%
4439-3859 (8298)
Invested
$64.67
Value
$43.99
PnL
-$20.68
Record
53%
753-663 (1416)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $901
CrouchPredictions
Down — $653.51
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $434.04
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
bosona
Down — $353.22
stepahead
Down — $246.66
wzbbb
Down — $201.49