Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Up 64%
2 arb excluded
$7.3K
$-6.1K
Smart Money Signal
36 of 56 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 38% 167-268 (435) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$937.2 | 51% 2976-2895 (5871) |
BO bosona | Upavg 64.5¢ | $635.62 | $842.52 | +$206.9 | 51% 4461-4339 (8800) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $807.84 | $816 | +$8.16 | 98% 3131-65 (3196) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 68.5¢ | $604.88 | $604.61 | -$0.27 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 66¢ | $535.41 | $578.43 | +$43.02 | 44% 636-822 (1458) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 38.5¢ | $641.35 | — | -$641.35 | 60% 906-605 (1511) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.1¢ | $564.8 | $502.01 | -$3.49 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 71¢ | $602.11 | $475.72 | -$126.39 | 46% 880-1020 (1900) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 85.4¢ | $361.6 | $323.22 | -$38.38 | 30% 586-1356 (1942) |
AL almach | Upavg 93.4¢ | $324.03 | $316.18 | -$7.85 | 50% 1219-1216 (2435) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 54.6¢ | $303.54 | $313.15 | +$9.61 | 55% 4254-3494 (7748) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 80.1¢ | $219.74 | $253.9 | +$34.16 | 49% 1204-1240 (2444) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 67.4¢ | $219.51 | $254.55 | +$35.04 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Upavg 70.3¢ | $210.05 | $238.28 | +$28.23 | 49% 656-681 (1337) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 42.5¢ | $226.74 | $169.22 | -$57.52 | 45% 675-823 (1498) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.6¢ | $94.03 | $169.22 | +$75.19 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.5¢ | $132.71 | — | -$132.71 | |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 56.2¢ | $130.51 | $189.19 | +$58.68 | 52% 759-712 (1471) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 79.7¢ | $178.25 | $165.92 | -$12.33 | 55% 781-639 (1420) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 74¢ | $152.37 | $162.21 | +$9.84 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 61.8¢ | $122.7 | $144.67 | +$21.97 | 51% 671-649 (1320) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 59.2¢ | $94.11 | $118 | +$23.89 | 53% 753-663 (1416) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 40.8¢ | $90.56 | $67.97 | -$22.59 | 50% 1672-1674 (3346) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42¢ | $28.55 | $67.97 | +$39.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.8¢ | $62.01 | — | -$62.01 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Upavg 57.8¢ | $81.3 | $85 | +$3.7 | 50% 676-677 (1353) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 58.9¢ | $65.56 | $80.59 | +$16.67 | 67% 3145-1560 (4705) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 73.6¢ | $79.59 | $79.99 | +$0.4 | 51% 741-699 (1440) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
38%
167-268 (435)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$937.2
Record
51%
2976-2895 (5871)
Invested
$635.62
Value
$842.52
PnL
+$206.9
Record
51%
4461-4339 (8800)
Invested
$807.84
Value
$816
PnL
+$8.16
Record
98%
3131-65 (3196)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$604.88
Value
$604.61
PnL
-$0.27
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
Invested
$535.41
Value
$578.43
PnL
+$43.02
Record
44%
636-822 (1458)
Invested
$641.35
Value
—
PnL
-$641.35
Record
60%
906-605 (1511)
Invested
$564.8
Value
$502.01
PnL
-$3.49
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Invested
$602.11
Value
$475.72
PnL
-$126.39
Record
46%
880-1020 (1900)
Invested
$361.6
Value
$323.22
PnL
-$38.38
Record
30%
586-1356 (1942)
Invested
$324.03
Value
$316.18
PnL
-$7.85
Record
50%
1219-1216 (2435)
Invested
$303.54
Value
$313.15
PnL
+$9.61
Record
55%
4254-3494 (7748)
Invested
$219.74
Value
$253.9
PnL
+$34.16
Record
49%
1204-1240 (2444)
Invested
$219.51
Value
$254.55
PnL
+$35.04
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Invested
$210.05
Value
$238.28
PnL
+$28.23
Record
49%
656-681 (1337)
Invested
$226.74
Value
$169.22
PnL
-$57.52
Record
45%
675-823 (1498)
Both legs:
Invested
$130.51
Value
$189.19
PnL
+$58.68
Record
52%
759-712 (1471)
Invested
$178.25
Value
$165.92
PnL
-$12.33
Record
55%
781-639 (1420)
Invested
$152.37
Value
$162.21
PnL
+$9.84
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
Invested
$122.7
Value
$144.67
PnL
+$21.97
Record
51%
671-649 (1320)
Invested
$94.11
Value
$118
PnL
+$23.89
Record
53%
753-663 (1416)
Invested
$90.56
Value
$67.97
PnL
-$22.59
Record
50%
1672-1674 (3346)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.3
Value
$85
PnL
+$3.7
Record
50%
676-677 (1353)
Invested
$65.56
Value
$80.59
PnL
+$16.67
Record
67%
3145-1560 (4705)
Invested
$79.59
Value
$79.99
PnL
+$0.4
Record
51%
741-699 (1440)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $842.52
hoodquant
Up — $816
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $604.61
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $578.43
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $502.01
CrouchPredictions
Up — $475.72
ply-pm0
Up — $323.22