Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Up 69%
1 arb excluded
$9.4K
$-5.4K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 58 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 38% 167-268 (435) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$903.9 | 51% 2976-2895 (5871) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 71.5¢ | $988.47 | $844.54 | -$143.93 | 46% 880-1020 (1900) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 73.7¢ | $967.66 | $846 | +$8.66 | 52% 4742-4430 (9172) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 55.9¢ | $677.32 | $801.93 | +$131.3 | 60% 906-605 (1511) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 58.9¢ | $723.05 | $761.53 | +$38.48 | 55% 4254-3494 (7748) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 62.1¢ | $534.73 | $602 | +$67.27 | 44% 636-822 (1458) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $571.42 | $493.22 | +$6.89 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 58.3¢ | $458.32 | $487.42 | +$44.77 | 51% 1930-1826 (3756) |
SU suntori | Upavg 78.2¢ | $408.08 | $477.74 | +$111.9 | 46% 2359-2814 (5173) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 58.4¢ | $400.27 | $473.46 | +$76.8 | 45% 675-823 (1498) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 70.2¢ | $401.76 | $432.09 | +$30.34 | 49% 4099-4182 (8281) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 90¢ | $495.03 | $438.67 | -$56.36 | 49% 1204-1240 (2444) |
AL almach | Upavg 83.5¢ | $288.69 | $285.22 | -$3.47 | 50% 1219-1216 (2435) |
BO bosona | Upavg 55.9¢ | $166.67 | $298.4 | +$131.73 | 51% 4461-4339 (8800) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 92.9¢ | $345.08 | $247.69 | -$19.88 | 30% 586-1356 (1942) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 51.9¢ | $147.34 | $170.58 | +$23.24 | 53% 4439-3859 (8298) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 78.7¢ | $135.12 | $150 | +$14.88 | 51% 741-699 (1440) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR | Downavg 53.3¢ | $185.37 | — | -$185.37 | 51% 671-649 (1320) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 47.2¢ | $134.4 | — | -$124.83 | 52% 759-712 (1471) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 46¢ | $89.38 | $111.26 | +$59.14 | 47% 1854-2076 (3930) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 75.7¢ | $139.33 | $110.23 | -$29.1 | 50% 677-666 (1343) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 51.9¢ | $74.77 | $105 | +$30.23 | 51% 656-643 (1299) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 37.5¢ | $54.55 | $104.01 | +$49.46 | 47% 1892-2135 (4027) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 65.6¢ | $95.61 | $95.3 | +$10.91 | 67% 3145-1560 (4705) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
38%
167-268 (435)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$903.9
Record
51%
2976-2895 (5871)
Invested
$988.47
Value
$844.54
PnL
-$143.93
Record
46%
880-1020 (1900)
Invested
$967.66
Value
$846
PnL
+$8.66
Record
52%
4742-4430 (9172)
Invested
$677.32
Value
$801.93
PnL
+$131.3
Record
60%
906-605 (1511)
Invested
$723.05
Value
$761.53
PnL
+$38.48
Record
55%
4254-3494 (7748)
Invested
$534.73
Value
$602
PnL
+$67.27
Record
44%
636-822 (1458)
Invested
$571.42
Value
$493.22
PnL
+$6.89
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$458.32
Value
$487.42
PnL
+$44.77
Record
51%
1930-1826 (3756)
Invested
$408.08
Value
$477.74
PnL
+$111.9
Record
46%
2359-2814 (5173)
Invested
$400.27
Value
$473.46
PnL
+$76.8
Record
45%
675-823 (1498)
Invested
$401.76
Value
$432.09
PnL
+$30.34
Record
49%
4099-4182 (8281)
Invested
$495.03
Value
$438.67
PnL
-$56.36
Record
49%
1204-1240 (2444)
Invested
$288.69
Value
$285.22
PnL
-$3.47
Record
50%
1219-1216 (2435)
Invested
$166.67
Value
$298.4
PnL
+$131.73
Record
51%
4461-4339 (8800)
Invested
$345.08
Value
$247.69
PnL
-$19.88
Record
30%
586-1356 (1942)
FairValueMachineInvested
$147.34
Value
$170.58
PnL
+$23.24
Record
53%
4439-3859 (8298)
Invested
$135.12
Value
$150
PnL
+$14.88
Record
51%
741-699 (1440)
Invested
$185.37
Value
—
PnL
-$185.37
Record
51%
671-649 (1320)
Invested
$134.4
Value
—
PnL
-$124.83
Record
52%
759-712 (1471)
Invested
$89.38
Value
$111.26
PnL
+$59.14
Record
47%
1854-2076 (3930)
Invested
$139.33
Value
$110.23
PnL
-$29.1
Record
50%
677-666 (1343)
OhioAIInvested
$74.77
Value
$105
PnL
+$30.23
Record
51%
656-643 (1299)
Invested
$54.55
Value
$104.01
PnL
+$49.46
Record
47%
1892-2135 (4027)
Invested
$95.61
Value
$95.3
PnL
+$10.91
Record
67%
3145-1560 (4705)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $844.54
blue.birds
Up — $846
Bonereaper
Up — $801.93
stepahead
Up — $761.53
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $602
ByteBadger92
Up — $493.22
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $487.42
suntori
Up — $477.74