Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 48 top traders (63%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down30 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,461

Combined PnL+$971.3

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,473

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$34.67	38% 167-268 (435)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.5K
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$20.45	99% 744-7 (751)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 45.7¢	$666.03	$897.39	+$307.67	60% 906-605 (1511)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$763.54	$728.21	-$35.32	55% 4254-3494 (7748)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.7¢	$463.83	$728.21	+$264.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.7¢	$299.7	—	-$299.7
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 50.9¢	$544.08	—	-$544.08	50% 1672-1674 (3346)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 31.8¢	$534.03	—	-$440.03	52% 4742-4430 (9172)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$581.24	$490.16	-$91.08	53% 753-663 (1416)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.4¢	$340.12	$490.16	+$150.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$241.12	—	-$241.12
FairValueMachine	Downavg 54.5¢	$456.41	$499.49	+$45.63	53% 4439-3859 (8298)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 85.4¢	$805.2	$633.75	-$102.39	50% 1219-1216 (2435)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.4¢	$541.3	$633.75	+$92.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$191.29	—	-$194.46
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 44.6¢	$623.69	—	-$554.99	44% 636-822 (1458)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.1¢	$640.32	$481.11	+$9.87	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$233.12	$481.11	+$258.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$245.06	—	-$248.99
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 47¢	$511.54	—	-$475.94	45% 675-823 (1498)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 71.4¢	$495.84	$457.15	-$29.76	49% 4099-4182 (8281)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 61.6¢	$443.58	$440.43	+$23.64	30% 586-1356 (1942)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 80.5¢	$823.55	$276.33	+$24.8	51% 1930-1826 (3756)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.5¢	$222.39	$276.33	+$61.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.4¢	$53.36	—	-$36.92
SU suntori	Downavg 51.7¢	$109.32	$211.56	+$102.24	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
machinelearned	Downavg 71.7¢	$272.87	$369.85	+$96.97	45% 945-1136 (2081)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$219.1	$242.99	+$23.89	55% 781-639 (1420)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.2¢	$165.77	$242.99	+$77.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.2¢	$53.33	—	-$53.33
OhioAI	Downavg 56.2¢	$175.16	$181.74	+$7.52	51% 656-643 (1299)
ohioism	Downavg 60.8¢	$162.84	$262.84	+$100	48% 1833-1999 (3832)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 64.2¢	$135.4	$142.42	+$9.47	52% 759-712 (1471)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$156.14	$120.94	-$35.2	39% 654-1033 (1687)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.7¢	$92.3	—	-$92.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$63.85	$120.94	+$57.09
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$104.89	$103.91	-$0.97	26% 405-1179 (1584)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.7¢	$25.65	—	-$25.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$79.24	$103.91	+$24.68
MO mo-money	Downavg 77.4¢	$171.61	$203.81	+$32.19	49% 1204-1240 (2444)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 76.2¢	$123.92	$51.17	+$2.91	63% 3717-2213 (5930)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.1¢	$24.27	—	-$24.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.2¢	$39	$51.17	+$27.81

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$34.67

Record

38%

167-268 (435)

Both legs:

Down$2,497.550¢+$2.5K

Up$2,224.9550¢$-2.5K

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,024.65

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$20.45

Record

99%

744-7 (751)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$666.03

Value

$897.39

PnL

+$307.67

Record

60%

906-605 (1511)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$763.54

Value

$728.21

PnL

-$35.32

Record

55%

4254-3494 (7748)

Both legs:

Down$463.8363.7¢+$264.38

Up$299.746.7¢-$299.7

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$544.08

Value

—

PnL

-$544.08

Record

50%

1672-1674 (3346)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$534.03

Value

—

PnL

-$440.03

Record

52%

4742-4430 (9172)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$581.24

Value

$490.16

PnL

-$91.08

Record

53%

753-663 (1416)

Both legs:

Down$340.1269.4¢+$150.04

Up$241.1246.6¢-$241.12

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$456.41

Value

$499.49

PnL

+$45.63

Record

53%

4439-3859 (8298)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$805.2

Value

$633.75

PnL

-$102.39

Record

50%

1219-1216 (2435)

Both legs:

Down$541.385.4¢+$92.07

Up$191.2956.2¢-$194.46

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$623.69

Value

—

PnL

-$554.99

Record

44%

636-822 (1458)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$640.32

Value

$481.11

PnL

+$9.87

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

Both legs:

Down$233.1248.5¢+$258.87

Up$245.0649.1¢-$248.99

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$511.54

Value

—

PnL

-$475.94

Record

45%

675-823 (1498)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$495.84

Value

$457.15

PnL

-$29.76

Record

49%

4099-4182 (8281)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$443.58

Value

$440.43

PnL

+$23.64

Record

30%

586-1356 (1942)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$823.55

Value

$276.33

PnL

+$24.8

Record

51%

1930-1826 (3756)

Both legs:

Down$222.3980.5¢+$61.73

Up$53.3634.4¢-$36.92

suntori

Down

Invested

$109.32

Value

$211.56

PnL

+$102.24

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$272.87

Value

$369.85

PnL

+$96.97

Record

45%

945-1136 (2081)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$219.1

Value

$242.99

PnL

+$23.89

Record

55%

781-639 (1420)

Both legs:

Down$165.7768.2¢+$77.23

Up$53.3335.2¢-$53.33

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$175.16

Value

$181.74

PnL

+$7.52

Record

51%

656-643 (1299)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$162.84

Value

$262.84

PnL

+$100

Record

48%

1833-1999 (3832)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$135.4

Value

$142.42

PnL

+$9.47

Record

52%

759-712 (1471)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$156.14

Value

$120.94

PnL

-$35.2

Record

39%

654-1033 (1687)

Both legs:

Up$92.357.7¢-$92.3

Down$63.8552.8¢+$57.09

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$104.89

Value

$103.91

PnL

-$0.97

Record

26%

405-1179 (1584)

Both legs:

Up$25.6515.7¢-$25.65

Down$79.2476.3¢+$24.68

mo-money

Down

Invested

$171.61

Value

$203.81

PnL

+$32.19

Record

49%

1204-1240 (2444)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$123.92

Value

$51.17

PnL

+$2.91

Record

63%

3717-2213 (5930)

Both legs:

Up$24.2715.1¢-$24.9

Down$3976.2¢+$27.81

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 48 top traders (63%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x454cdb49...7597b2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794627600

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$34.67

THG.

Down — $2.0K

+$20.45

Bonereaper

Down — $897.39

+$307.67

stepahead

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$35.32

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

blue.birds

Up — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$91.08

FairValueMachine

Down — $499.49

+$45.63

almach

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$102.39

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

-$554.99

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