Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 65%
6 arb excluded
$14.7K
$-5.7K
Smart Money Signal
36 of 55 top traders (65%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 39% 164-257 (421) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$31.97 | 99% 739-7 (746) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 53.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$13.66 | 44% 629-815 (1444) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 47¢ | $881.76 | $994.92 | +$113.16 | 60% 897-597 (1494) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 64.1¢ | $723.2 | $711.29 | -$7.98 | 53% 743-659 (1402) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 60¢ | $665.15 | $676.43 | +$15.33 | 52% 4724-4405 (9129) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 74¢ | $634.46 | $716.58 | +$82.13 | 25% 400-1173 (1573) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 51.9¢ | $605.51 | $578.6 | +$6.22 | 50% 4078-4158 (8236) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 38.6¢ | $508.25 | — | -$508.25 | 45% 667-817 (1484) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $516.68 | $521.9 | +$5.22 | 98% 3102-65 (3167) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 49.2¢ | $463.46 | $515.22 | +$87.6 | 30% 581-1347 (1928) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 29¢ | $237.15 | $493.59 | +$256.43 | 49% 1190-1231 (2421) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 49.1¢ | $576.22 | $481.42 | +$21.52 | 55% 2993-2461 (5454) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Upavg 54.6¢ | $622.32 | — | -$622.32 | 55% 775-631 (1406) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 70.8¢ | $455.69 | $414.96 | -$38.2 | 55% 4242-3487 (7729) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 51.7¢ | $254.64 | $365.33 | +$115.54 | 46% 869-1012 (1881) |
 ohioism | Downavg 47.1¢ | $330.38 | $362.54 | +$32.15 | 48% 1808-1977 (3785) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 43.2¢ | $294.1 | $336.33 | +$59.37 | 53% 4433-3853 (8286) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 35.8¢ | $158.84 | $346.84 | +$188 | 49% 650-673 (1323) |
 BoneOhioCTR | Upavg 52.5¢ | $252.1 | — | -$252.1 | 71% 1405-563 (1968) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 58.9¢ | $260.77 | $224.79 | -$35.99 | 52% 751-705 (1456) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.9¢ | $132.3 | $224.79 | +$92.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.4¢ | $128.47 | — | -$128.47 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $201.61 | $203.89 | +$2.28 | 47% 1867-2116 (3983) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 59.1¢ | $207.17 | $188.17 | -$19 | 50% 648-638 (1286) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 55.3¢ | $163.38 | $205.23 | +$41.86 | 50% 669-670 (1339) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 79.2¢ | $224.17 | $176.59 | -$47.58 | 67% 3113-1544 (4657) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
39%
164-257 (421)
Invested
$3,165.03
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$31.97
Record
99%
739-7 (746)
Invested
$1,026.37
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$13.66
Record
44%
629-815 (1444)
Invested
$881.76
Value
$994.92
PnL
+$113.16
Record
60%
897-597 (1494)
Invested
$723.2
Value
$711.29
PnL
-$7.98
Record
53%
743-659 (1402)
Invested
$665.15
Value
$676.43
PnL
+$15.33
Record
52%
4724-4405 (9129)
NIULAI4Invested
$634.46
Value
$716.58
PnL
+$82.13
Record
25%
400-1173 (1573)
Invested
$605.51
Value
$578.6
PnL
+$6.22
Record
50%
4078-4158 (8236)
Invested
$508.25
Value
—
PnL
-$508.25
Record
45%
667-817 (1484)
Invested
$516.68
Value
$521.9
PnL
+$5.22
Record
98%
3102-65 (3167)
Invested
$463.46
Value
$515.22
PnL
+$87.6
Record
30%
581-1347 (1928)
Invested
$237.15
Value
$493.59
PnL
+$256.43
Record
49%
1190-1231 (2421)
Invested
$576.22
Value
$481.42
PnL
+$21.52
Record
55%
2993-2461 (5454)
Invested
$622.32
Value
—
PnL
-$622.32
Record
55%
775-631 (1406)
Invested
$455.69
Value
$414.96
PnL
-$38.2
Record
55%
4242-3487 (7729)
Invested
$254.64
Value
$365.33
PnL
+$115.54
Record
46%
869-1012 (1881)
ohioismInvested
$330.38
Value
$362.54
PnL
+$32.15
Record
48%
1808-1977 (3785)
FairValueMachineInvested
$294.1
Value
$336.33
PnL
+$59.37
Record
53%
4433-3853 (8286)
Invested
$158.84
Value
$346.84
PnL
+$188
Record
49%
650-673 (1323)
BoneOhioCTRInvested
$252.1
Value
—
PnL
-$252.1
Record
71%
1405-563 (1968)
Invested
$260.77
Value
$224.79
PnL
-$35.99
Record
52%
751-705 (1456)
Both legs:
Invested
$201.61
Value
$203.89
PnL
+$2.28
Record
47%
1867-2116 (3983)
OhioAIInvested
$207.17
Value
$188.17
PnL
-$19
Record
50%
648-638 (1286)
Invested
$163.38
Value
$205.23
PnL
+$41.86
Record
50%
669-670 (1339)
Invested
$224.17
Value
$176.59
PnL
-$47.58
Record
67%
3113-1544 (4657)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $1.0K
Bonereaper
Down — $994.92
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $711.29
blue.birds
Down — $676.43
NIULAI4
Down — $716.58
asdcaxz
Down — $578.6
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $521.9