Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Down 65%
2 arb excluded
$20.4K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
36 of 56 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $6.5K | $6.5K | +$1.08 | 51% 1226-1179 (2405) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$14.69 | 39% 164-257 (421) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 50.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$185.71 | 60% 897-597 (1494) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 71.9¢ | $942.65 | $942.91 | +$0.26 | 52% 4724-4405 (9129) |
BO bosona | Downavg 74.8¢ | $868.67 | $795.76 | -$72.91 | 51% 4446-4332 (8778) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 60.3¢ | $712.33 | $694.32 | -$18.02 | 46% 869-1012 (1881) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 63.1¢ | $536.41 | $554.17 | +$17.76 | 50% 4078-4158 (8236) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 47.3¢ | $412.57 | $536.96 | +$140.33 | 44% 629-815 (1444) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.9¢ | $581.27 | — | -$490.09 | 55% 2993-2461 (5454) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 62.1¢ | $405.56 | $455.85 | +$50.29 | 55% 4242-3487 (7729) |
AL almach | Downavg 55.9¢ | $248.21 | $366.29 | +$118.09 | 50% 1203-1208 (2411) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 60.8¢ | $316.53 | $342.95 | +$26.42 | 30% 581-1347 (1928) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 44¢ | $234.58 | $323 | +$102.28 | 45% 667-817 (1484) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 61¢ | $309.8 | $321.73 | +$11.93 | 53% 743-659 (1402) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 85¢ | $233.95 | $249.24 | +$15.29 | 51% 1912-1810 (3722) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 68.8¢ | $203.77 | $223.08 | +$19.31 | 51% 676-650 (1326) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 70.1¢ | $224.24 | $200.01 | -$24.22 | 55% 775-631 (1406) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 55.3¢ | $287.92 | — | -$274.37 | 52% 751-705 (1456) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 48.6¢ | $139.18 | $178.47 | +$39.28 | 45% 594-723 (1317) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 49¢ | $171.48 | — | -$171.48 | 50% 665-666 (1331) |
 OhioAICTR | Upavg 49.7¢ | $160.63 | — | -$158.19 | 50% 648-638 (1286) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $140.88 | $152.67 | +$11.79 | 48% 627-674 (1301) |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 43.6¢ | $82.86 | $150.42 | +$72.51 | 38% 1212-1995 (3207) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 66.6¢ | $149.5 | $147.52 | +$4.91 | 67% 3113-1544 (4657) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 57¢ | $183.71 | — | -$183.71 | 53% 4433-3853 (8286) |
Invested
$6,522.37
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$1.08
Record
51%
1226-1179 (2405)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$14.69
Record
39%
164-257 (421)
Invested
$1,004.58
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$185.71
Record
60%
897-597 (1494)
Invested
$942.65
Value
$942.91
PnL
+$0.26
Record
52%
4724-4405 (9129)
Invested
$868.67
Value
$795.76
PnL
-$72.91
Record
51%
4446-4332 (8778)
Invested
$712.33
Value
$694.32
PnL
-$18.02
Record
46%
869-1012 (1881)
Invested
$536.41
Value
$554.17
PnL
+$17.76
Record
50%
4078-4158 (8236)
Invested
$412.57
Value
$536.96
PnL
+$140.33
Record
44%
629-815 (1444)
Invested
$581.27
Value
—
PnL
-$490.09
Record
55%
2993-2461 (5454)
Invested
$405.56
Value
$455.85
PnL
+$50.29
Record
55%
4242-3487 (7729)
Invested
$248.21
Value
$366.29
PnL
+$118.09
Record
50%
1203-1208 (2411)
Invested
$316.53
Value
$342.95
PnL
+$26.42
Record
30%
581-1347 (1928)
Invested
$234.58
Value
$323
PnL
+$102.28
Record
45%
667-817 (1484)
Invested
$309.8
Value
$321.73
PnL
+$11.93
Record
53%
743-659 (1402)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$233.95
Value
$249.24
PnL
+$15.29
Record
51%
1912-1810 (3722)
Invested
$203.77
Value
$223.08
PnL
+$19.31
Record
51%
676-650 (1326)
Invested
$224.24
Value
$200.01
PnL
-$24.22
Record
55%
775-631 (1406)
Invested
$287.92
Value
—
PnL
-$274.37
Record
52%
751-705 (1456)
Invested
$139.18
Value
$178.47
PnL
+$39.28
Record
45%
594-723 (1317)
Invested
$171.48
Value
—
PnL
-$171.48
Record
50%
665-666 (1331)
OhioAICTRInvested
$160.63
Value
—
PnL
-$158.19
Record
50%
648-638 (1286)
Invested
$140.88
Value
$152.67
PnL
+$11.79
Record
48%
627-674 (1301)
Invested
$82.86
Value
$150.42
PnL
+$72.51
Record
38%
1212-1995 (3207)
Invested
$149.5
Value
$147.52
PnL
+$4.91
Record
67%
3113-1544 (4657)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$183.71
Value
—
PnL
-$183.71
Record
53%
4433-3853 (8286)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $6.5K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.2K
blue.birds
Down — $942.91
bosona
Down — $795.76
CrouchPredictions
Down — $694.32
asdcaxz
Down — $554.17
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $536.96
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $455.85