Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
58
Down 47%
1 arb excluded
$4.9K
$-7.5K
Smart Money Signal
27 of 58 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 39% 164-257 (421) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$15.75 | 51% 2954-2869 (5823) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 61.6¢ | $704.94 | $573.65 | -$131.29 | 46% 869-1012 (1881) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 45.9¢ | $545.79 | — | -$545.79 | 60% 897-597 (1494) |
BO bosona | Upavg 38.3¢ | $221.21 | $551.33 | +$330.11 | 51% 4446-4332 (8778) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 60.9¢ | $535.87 | — | -$535.87 | 55% 4242-3487 (7729) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 51¢ | $552.58 | — | -$495.78 | 55% 2993-2461 (5454) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 47.3¢ | $289.57 | — | -$289.57 | 44% 629-815 (1444) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 38.6¢ | $232.33 | $332.73 | +$119.99 | 51% 1912-1810 (3722) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 68.4¢ | $347.86 | $324.07 | -$23.78 | 30% 581-1347 (1928) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 84¢ | $163.42 | — | -$163.42 | 50% 1203-1208 (2411) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 62.4¢ | $175.11 | — | -$175.11 | 50% 4078-4158 (8236) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 45.9¢ | $183.32 | $260.71 | +$77.39 | 53% 743-659 (1402) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 29.4¢ | $186.15 | — | -$137.15 | 52% 4724-4405 (9129) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 55.8¢ | $141.9 | $216.52 | +$74.62 | 52% 751-705 (1456) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 53.6¢ | $183.84 | — | -$183.84 | 45% 667-817 (1484) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 53.5¢ | $168.11 | $160.98 | +$0.67 | 53% 4433-3853 (8286) |
 OhioAICTR | Downavg 53.8¢ | $140.75 | — | -$140.75 | 50% 648-638 (1286) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 79.8¢ | $130.18 | $118.1 | -$12.08 | 67% 3113-1544 (4657) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 40.4¢ | $92.27 | — | -$92.27 | 47% 1827-2050 (3877) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 41.9¢ | $91.84 | $110 | +$18.16 | 47% 1867-2116 (3983) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 40.6¢ | $53.38 | $131.61 | +$78.23 | 59% 834-582 (1416) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $77.22 | $158.13 | +$80.9 | 45% 938-1129 (2067) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29¢ | $45.86 | $158.13 | +$112.27 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68¢ | $31.37 | — | -$31.37 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 61.9¢ | $116.96 | — | -$116.96 | 39% 650-1025 (1675) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 39.4¢ | $145.95 | — | -$142.8 | 55% 775-631 (1406) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
39%
164-257 (421)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$15.75
Record
51%
2954-2869 (5823)
Invested
$704.94
Value
$573.65
PnL
-$131.29
Record
46%
869-1012 (1881)
Invested
$545.79
Value
—
PnL
-$545.79
Record
60%
897-597 (1494)
Invested
$221.21
Value
$551.33
PnL
+$330.11
Record
51%
4446-4332 (8778)
Invested
$535.87
Value
—
PnL
-$535.87
Record
55%
4242-3487 (7729)
Invested
$552.58
Value
—
PnL
-$495.78
Record
55%
2993-2461 (5454)
Invested
$289.57
Value
—
PnL
-$289.57
Record
44%
629-815 (1444)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$232.33
Value
$332.73
PnL
+$119.99
Record
51%
1912-1810 (3722)
Invested
$347.86
Value
$324.07
PnL
-$23.78
Record
30%
581-1347 (1928)
Invested
$163.42
Value
—
PnL
-$163.42
Record
50%
1203-1208 (2411)
Invested
$175.11
Value
—
PnL
-$175.11
Record
50%
4078-4158 (8236)
Invested
$183.32
Value
$260.71
PnL
+$77.39
Record
53%
743-659 (1402)
Invested
$186.15
Value
—
PnL
-$137.15
Record
52%
4724-4405 (9129)
Invested
$141.9
Value
$216.52
PnL
+$74.62
Record
52%
751-705 (1456)
Invested
$183.84
Value
—
PnL
-$183.84
Record
45%
667-817 (1484)
FairValueMachineInvested
$168.11
Value
$160.98
PnL
+$0.67
Record
53%
4433-3853 (8286)
OhioAICTRInvested
$140.75
Value
—
PnL
-$140.75
Record
50%
648-638 (1286)
Invested
$130.18
Value
$118.1
PnL
-$12.08
Record
67%
3113-1544 (4657)
Invested
$92.27
Value
—
PnL
-$92.27
Record
47%
1827-2050 (3877)
Invested
$91.84
Value
$110
PnL
+$18.16
Record
47%
1867-2116 (3983)
Invested
$53.38
Value
$131.61
PnL
+$78.23
Record
59%
834-582 (1416)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$77.22
Value
$158.13
PnL
+$80.9
Record
45%
938-1129 (2067)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$116.96
Value
—
PnL
-$116.96
Record
39%
650-1025 (1675)
Invested
$145.95
Value
—
PnL
-$142.8
Record
55%
775-631 (1406)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $950
CrouchPredictions
Up — $573.65
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $551.33
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $332.73
ply-pm0
Up — $324.07