Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 49% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
65
Down 46%
2 arb excluded
$5.4K
$-5.3K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 65 top traders (49%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed32 hold an outcome priced under 50%46 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 39% 164-257 (421) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $940.53 | +$2.85 | 51% 2954-2869 (5823) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 64.1¢ | $565.06 | $535.98 | -$29.07 | 60% 897-597 (1494) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 80.5¢ | $471.63 | $503.85 | +$33.82 | 52% 4724-4405 (9129) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.6¢ | $537.43 | $503.54 | +$8.51 | 55% 2993-2461 (5454) |
BO bosona | Upavg 54.1¢ | $195.84 | $350.15 | +$154.31 | 51% 4446-4332 (8778) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 66.9¢ | $280.25 | $328.39 | +$48.13 | 45% 667-817 (1484) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 75.5¢ | $300.21 | $313.65 | +$13.43 | 44% 629-815 (1444) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 37.3¢ | $285.8 | — | -$285.8 | 55% 4242-3487 (7729) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 67.8¢ | $194.43 | $220 | +$30.17 | 50% 4078-4158 (8236) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 34.7¢ | $302.89 | $172.43 | -$130.46 | 46% 869-1012 (1881) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.5¢ | $107.7 | $172.43 | +$64.73 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.7¢ | $195.19 | — | -$195.19 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 82¢ | $171.86 | $209.54 | +$37.69 | 45% 938-1129 (2067) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 64.4¢ | $131.17 | $171.92 | +$42.66 | 52% 751-705 (1456) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 30.7¢ | $153.39 | — | -$153.39 | 51% 1912-1810 (3722) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 56.8¢ | $111.8 | $134 | +$25 | 53% 4433-3853 (8286) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 59.7¢ | $99.01 | $132 | +$32.98 | 55% 775-631 (1406) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 92.1¢ | $169.17 | $103.06 | -$66.11 | 53% 743-659 (1402) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 50¢ | $83.4 | $100 | +$16.6 | 45% 594-723 (1317) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 75.3¢ | $88.57 | $95.51 | +$6.95 | 30% 581-1347 (1928) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Upavg 60.8¢ | $52.65 | $84.29 | +$31.64 | 50% 3737-3684 (7421) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Upavg 73.2¢ | $63.59 | $69.91 | +$6.32 | 52% 736-690 (1426) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359<$100 | Upavg 75.9¢ | $59.7 | $66.32 | +$6.62 | 49% 650-673 (1323) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $42.85 | $70.24 | +$27.39 | 60% 3273-2196 (5469) |
 ohioismARB<$100 | Downavg 30.2¢ | $97.2 | $35 | -$62.2 | 48% 1808-1977 (3785) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62¢ | $21.7 | $35 | +$13.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.2¢ | $75.5 | — | -$75.5 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 74.9¢ | $52.57 | $45.59 | -$6.98 | 47% 1867-2116 (3983) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
39%
164-257 (421)
Invested
$950
Value
$940.53
PnL
+$2.85
Record
51%
2954-2869 (5823)
Invested
$565.06
Value
$535.98
PnL
-$29.07
Record
60%
897-597 (1494)
Invested
$471.63
Value
$503.85
PnL
+$33.82
Record
52%
4724-4405 (9129)
Invested
$537.43
Value
$503.54
PnL
+$8.51
Record
55%
2993-2461 (5454)
Invested
$195.84
Value
$350.15
PnL
+$154.31
Record
51%
4446-4332 (8778)
Invested
$280.25
Value
$328.39
PnL
+$48.13
Record
45%
667-817 (1484)
Invested
$300.21
Value
$313.65
PnL
+$13.43
Record
44%
629-815 (1444)
Invested
$285.8
Value
—
PnL
-$285.8
Record
55%
4242-3487 (7729)
Invested
$194.43
Value
$220
PnL
+$30.17
Record
50%
4078-4158 (8236)
Invested
$302.89
Value
$172.43
PnL
-$130.46
Record
46%
869-1012 (1881)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$171.86
Value
$209.54
PnL
+$37.69
Record
45%
938-1129 (2067)
Invested
$131.17
Value
$171.92
PnL
+$42.66
Record
52%
751-705 (1456)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$153.39
Value
—
PnL
-$153.39
Record
51%
1912-1810 (3722)
FairValueMachineInvested
$111.8
Value
$134
PnL
+$25
Record
53%
4433-3853 (8286)
Invested
$99.01
Value
$132
PnL
+$32.98
Record
55%
775-631 (1406)
Invested
$169.17
Value
$103.06
PnL
-$66.11
Record
53%
743-659 (1402)
Invested
$83.4
Value
$100
PnL
+$16.6
Record
45%
594-723 (1317)
Invested
$88.57
Value
$95.51
PnL
+$6.95
Record
30%
581-1347 (1928)
Invested
$52.65
Value
$84.29
PnL
+$31.64
Record
50%
3737-3684 (7421)
Invested
$63.59
Value
$69.91
PnL
+$6.32
Record
52%
736-690 (1426)
Invested
$59.7
Value
$66.32
PnL
+$6.62
Record
49%
650-673 (1323)
Invested
$42.85
Value
$70.24
PnL
+$27.39
Record
60%
3273-2196 (5469)
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$97.2
Value
$35
PnL
-$62.2
Record
48%
1808-1977 (3785)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.57
Value
$45.59
PnL
-$6.98
Record
47%
1867-2116 (3983)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $940.53
Bonereaper
Up — $535.98
blue.birds
Up — $503.85
ByteBadger92
Up — $503.54
bosona
Up — $350.15
GoodFallen
Up — $328.39
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $313.65
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
Up — $220